A new study examining the intricate connections between immigration enforcement and the U.S. childcare workforce reveals significant disruptions in an already fragile sector of the economy. Researchers from the University of Vermont, Yale University, Arizona State University, and American University have meticulously analyzed how intensified actions by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) from 2023 through early 2025 have led to a contraction in formal childcare services, affecting both workers and the families that depend on this essential care.
This multidisciplinary team focused on the childcare industry, which employs nearly one million workers nationwide, generating approximately $7.2 billion in quarterly wages. Importantly, around 20% of this workforce comprises immigrants, particularly immigrant women, many of whom possess advanced certifications and work predominantly in regulated childcare centers and public facilities. The study’s authors argue that the visible nature of these workplaces makes immigrant employees especially vulnerable to the repercussions of enforcement policies.
By integrating data from the Current Population Survey with ICE arrest records obtained through the Deportation Data Project, the researchers were able to track precise correlations between enforcement intensity and changes in employment patterns within the sector. Their quantitative analysis indicates clear drops in formal childcare center employment concurrent with surges in ICE activities, especially after early 2025, a period marked by heightened ICE operations extending into previously protected spaces such as schools and daycare facilities.
The ramifications of these findings extend beyond workforce numbers. The forced exit or reduction of immigrant labor in formal childcare settings has cascading consequences. Centers have reported decreased enrollment capacities, classroom closures, and, in some cases, permanent shutdowns due to diminished staff availability. Such outcomes directly jeopardize working families relying on affordable, dependable childcare—disproportionately affecting mothers in the labor market.
A noteworthy shift illuminated by the study involves labor migration within the childcare sector itself. As formal centers contract, many displaced childcare workers transition into less-regulated private household childcare arrangements. These home-based care settings often lack formal licensing, standardized child-to-staff ratios, mandated training, and curricular consistency, suggesting a possible decline in care quality. Moreover, these environments typically offer less stable wages and fewer worker protections, introducing new vulnerabilities for the displaced workforce.
This structural transformation poses grave challenges in an industry already characterized by high turnover rates and chronic staffing shortages. The childcare sector’s limited capacity to accommodate sudden labor shocks amplifies the negative social impact, reducing the availability and quality of childcare, and increasing stress on both workers and families.
The researchers’ nuanced approach reveals that immigrant childcare workers are not simply replaced en masse by native-born labor but rather face net employment losses. This distinction is crucial for understanding labor market dynamics and dispels assumptions about seamless native workforce substitution in the face of enforcement pressures.
Furthermore, the research signals that families with mixed immigration status—who might already experience economic and social vulnerabilities—may withdraw their children from formal care due to fears related to immigration enforcement. This withdrawal alongside staff losses can exacerbate childcare scarcity and accessibility challenges, potentially driving up costs in a market where affordability is already precarious for many families.
Among the broad social implications, the study highlights the profound intersection between immigration policy and childcare policy. Immigration enforcement decisions resonate far beyond border security, influencing labor markets, family stability, and early childhood development ecosystems nationwide. This multifaceted nexus demands consideration from policymakers across sectors.
Lead author Erkmen Aslim, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Vermont, underscores the importance of recognizing childcare as an essential infrastructure integral to the functioning of the broader economy. Disruption in this sector creates ripple effects that hinder employment opportunities, particularly for working parents with limited alternatives.
This study, set to be published in the esteemed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, brings rigorous statistical analysis to a critical social issue, emphasizing the need for holistic policy approaches that account for the interconnected realities of immigration enforcement and childcare provision. It calls for a reevaluation of enforcement strategies in light of their unintended consequences on vulnerable populations and essential social services.
The results also raise urgent questions about labor rights and protections for childcare workers operating in unregulated environments. As shifts occur toward home-based care with fewer oversight mechanisms, ensuring fair wages and secure working conditions becomes an increasingly complex policy challenge. Addressing these concerns will be essential for maintaining a sustainable childcare workforce and protecting child welfare.
In essence, this comprehensive investigation sheds light on an often-overlooked dimension of immigration enforcement’s domestic impact. The findings present a compelling narrative that immigration policy is intricately woven into the fabric of family life and economic sustainability. The childcare sector emerges as a vital lens through which the broader societal consequences of enforcement policies can be understood and addressed.
Subject of Research: People
Article Title: How rising ICE activity influences the childcare workforce
News Publication Date: 22-May-2026
Web References:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2602686123
References:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Image Credits:
Photo courtesy of Erkmen Aslim.
Keywords: Economics, childcare workforce, immigration enforcement, ICE activity, labor markets, immigrant labor, childcare centers, private household care, labor displacement, policy impact, social sciences
