The BRICS nations—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—are pivotal players in the global energy landscape, representing a combined GDP of approximately USD 25.95 trillion as of 2022. This economic magnitude accounts for roughly 26% of the world’s total GDP. Over the past decade, these countries have experienced robust economic expansion, with an average annual growth rate of 2.87%, outpacing the global average. Such rapid growth inevitably drives corresponding increases in energy demand, positioning the BRICS countries as major consumers of the world’s primary energy resources. In 2022, they collectively accounted for about 46% of global primary energy consumption, underscoring their critical role in the energy sector and global environmental policies.
The energy profile across the BRICS is heavily skewed towards fossil fuels, which dominate the primary consumption matrix. Fossil fuel shares vary from 50% in Brazil to as high as 94% in South Africa. Coal, in particular, is the backbone of the energy structure in India, China, and South Africa, representing 55%, 56%, and 69% of their respective energy compositions. This entrenched dependence on carbon-intensive resources places the BRICS nations among the top contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for nearly 45% of worldwide emissions in 2022. Given ongoing economic and population growth, energy consumption and emissions are projected to rise further unless substantial structural changes are enacted.
Addressing these challenges is critical, especially considering the goals established by the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Transitioning away from a fossil fuel-dominated energy system is not only an environmental imperative but also a socio-economic necessity for the BRICS countries. Recognizing this, a dedicated research team from Tsinghua University developed a comprehensive study that systematically explores energy transition pathways customized to the unique socio-economic conditions and development trajectories of these emerging economies.
The centerpiece of this investigation is the application of a specialized computable general equilibrium model (CGEM) tailored to evaluate the economic and environmental implications of transitioning towards low-carbon energy systems within the BRICS framework. This model integrates key parameters including each nation’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and their respective carbon neutrality target years, allowing for accurate simulation of policy and market responses under different decarbonization scenarios. The CGEM approach facilitates not only the mapping of emission pathways but also the assessment of associated financial costs and investment requirements, providing a holistic view of the energy transition landscape.
Results from this modeling exercise offer promising insights. The study projects that by the time the BRICS nations reach carbon neutrality, non-fossil fuels will constitute significant portions of their energy mix: 85% in both Brazil and China, 77% in Russia, 67% in India, and 82% in South Africa. This marked shift from coal, oil, and natural gas to renewables and other clean energy sources is anticipated to drive substantial reductions in CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, the electrification of energy end-use sectors will accelerate, with estimated rates reaching between 60% and 79% across these countries. Such electrification is pivotal for improving energy efficiency and expanding clean energy access, enabling greater integration of renewables and advanced technologies.
From an economic standpoint, the transition entails considerable investment in energy infrastructure and technologies. The study estimates that investments will represent between 0.8% and 3.4% of each country’s GDP throughout the transition phase. Though significant, these expenditures are aligned with mitigation costs approximating $250 to $390 per ton of CO₂ abated, values comparable to those observed in developed economies. This alignment indicates that the BRICS countries possess the economic capability to finance their transitions without incurring prohibitive costs, assuming robust policy frameworks and coordinated international support.
The research also underscores the importance of regional and international cooperation. While identifying individual country pathways is critical, fostering collaborative strategies among BRICS members has the potential to accelerate the deployment of low-carbon technologies, optimize resource allocation, and harmonize policy instruments. Effective cooperation could amplify the pace of the energy transition, achieving stronger aggregate impacts on emissions mitigation and sustainable development outcomes.
Xiaodan Huang, the paper’s corresponding author and an associate researcher at the Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy at Tsinghua University, emphasized the pivotal role of the BRICS nations in global climate efforts. Huang noted, “The BRICS countries account for 45% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Exploring their pathways toward carbon neutrality is central to global success in limiting climate change.”
This study stands out by incorporating international commitments and specific national timelines into the modeling framework. Previous research has often relied on generic integrated assessment models (IAMs), computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, or bottom-up optimization techniques without spatially or politically nuanced considerations of each BRICS country’s targets. By contrast, this research contextualizes transition pathways within the real-world policy environment, allowing for more precise, actionable insights.
The publication also discusses the expected socio-technical shifts necessary for achieving the projected energy system transformations. These include increased electrification in transportation, industry, and buildings, larger shares of renewables such as wind, solar, and hydropower, and the gradual phase-out of coal-fired power plants. Such changes will require extensive upgrades to grid infrastructure, development of storage technologies, and enhanced energy efficiency standards.
Moreover, the study highlights economic diversification as a significant byproduct of the transition process. By reducing reliance on fossil fuel extraction and related industries, BRICS countries stand to foster growth in emerging green sectors, generate employment opportunities, and enhance overall economic resilience. These dynamics reinforce the argument that climate action and economic development can be pursued synergistically, contrary to traditional dichotomies.
Meanwhile, the study supports policy recommendations designed to incentivize investments in clean energy, implement carbon pricing mechanisms, and enhance knowledge sharing among BRICS nations. It advocates for the creation of joint platforms for technology exchange and financing cooperation, thereby leveraging the strengths and capacities of each member country to achieve common goals.
Supporting this research are contributors from the Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy at Tsinghua University—including Danwei Zhang and Runxin Yu—as well as Kaiwei Zhu from the Research Institute of Carbon Neutrality at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. The project received funding through the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 72140005) and the International Joint Mission on Climate Change and Carbon Neutrality, reflecting the strategic importance of this work within China’s scientific and policy landscapes.
The findings usher in a new era of understanding regarding energy transition pathways in major emerging economies. By elucidating the complexities and opportunities inherent within the BRICS nations, this study offers an indispensable reference for policymakers, investors, and researchers engaged in global climate change mitigation and sustainable energy development.
Subject of Research: Energy system transformation and carbon neutrality pathways in BRICS nations.
Article Title: A comparative study of energy system transformation toward carbon neutrality in BRICS nations.
News Publication Date: 3-Apr-2025.
Web References:
- https://doi.org/10.26599/ECM.2025.9400002
- https://www.sciopen.com/journal/3006-9203
- https://www.sciopen.com/home
- https://mc03.manuscriptcentral.com/jecm
Image Credits: Energy and Climate Management, Tsinghua University Press.
Keywords: BRICS, energy transition, carbon neutrality, fossil fuels, greenhouse gas emissions, CGE model, electrification, renewable energy, Paris Agreement, climate mitigation, economic growth, energy investment.
