In a transformative call to reshape global climate policy, a groundbreaking study recently published in Science advocates for an urgent pivot—not only in how energy is generated but fundamentally in how it is consumed. This pivotal research, spearheaded by teams from Iscte – University Institute of Lisbon and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), challenges the conventional focus on supply-side energy solutions and argues that achieving meaningful climate resilience by 2035 demands integrated targets addressing energy demand directly.
The study introduces an ambitious “triple-triple” agenda aimed at simultaneously tripling progress in three critical dimensions: energy efficiency improvements, the pace of electrification, and efforts to curb extreme energy consumption. This strategy advances a systemic framework for energy demand that positions consumption reduction as essential to climate mitigation, economic resilience, and social equity.
Historically, energy and climate policies have prioritized scaling up clean energy sources, such as renewables and nuclear power, to decarbonize supply. However, this mindset often neglects the demand side—the actual energy consumed in everyday activities like transportation, residential heating and cooling, and manufacturing. By sidelining this aspect, policies risk underestimating the true scale of the challenge, especially as rising global energy demand exacerbates vulnerability to shocks like price spikes and supply disruptions.
Lead author Nuno Bento highlights the critical oversight, stating that energy demand remains treated as an automatic correlate of economic growth rather than as an active, controllable policy domain. Demand is where the tangible benefits of energy services are realized, where social inequalities manifest starkly, and where some of the most rapid and cost-effective reductions in emissions and risk can be achieved.
The research illuminates a profound global disparity in energy use: While approximately half the world’s population barely meets decent living standards—consuming between 15 and 18 gigajoules (GJ) per person annually—and over 700 million individuals lack basic electricity access, the wealthiest 2% consume in excess of 300 GJ per person. This minuscule demographic alone accounts for roughly one-third of total global energy consumption. Conversely, the low-consuming half of the population accounts for only about a tenth, underscoring vast inequalities in energy distribution and accessibility.
Addressing this imbalance, the study emphasizes the necessity of imposing a fairer taxation regime targeted at excessive consumption that currently enjoys minimal or no fiscal scrutiny. By enacting surcharges on consumption above the 300 GJ threshold—which encompasses luxury activities like private aviation and yachting—governments could curb wasteful demand while generating substantial revenue. Estimated annual returns from this measure range dramatically from $0.2 trillion to $2 trillion, funds which could be strategically reinvested to broaden energy access and accelerate low-carbon infrastructure deployment.
Central to the study’s framework is an integration of the three goals, designed to mutually reinforce each other. Enhancing energy efficiency directly diminishes demand growth by reducing energy needed per unit of economic output, aiming for a 4% annual improvement in energy intensity. Simultaneously, tripling the rate of electrification—targeting a 33% share of electricity in final energy use by 2035—would enable a wider adoption of high-efficiency technologies such as electric vehicles and heat pumps. These technological transitions not only reduce emissions but improve energy system flexibility and resilience.
The third pillar, implementing taxation on extreme energy consumption, complements these measures by discouraging wasteful practices and generating fiscal mechanisms that can underwrite equitable energy transitions. Together, these goals form a comprehensive policy matrix that treats demand reduction not as a byproduct but as a central objective in the global effort toward carbon neutrality and sustainability.
Importantly, the authors dispel common misconceptions equating demand-side policies with austerity or deprivation. Instead, they articulate a vision focused on delivering improved energy services—enhanced comfort, mobility, and productivity—while simultaneously minimizing waste and maximizing fairness. The proposal reframes the energy system’s purpose around the provision of affordable, clean, and decent energy services rather than unchecked consumption.
This paradigm shift carries profound implications for energy governance, calling for integrated systemic approaches that combine technology, behavior, regulation, and social equity. By explicitly targeting demand alongside supply, policymakers can unlock rapid emissions cuts, bolster energy security against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and rectify longstanding social inequities embedded in energy consumption patterns.
Arnulf Grubler and Nebojsa Nakicenovic, the study’s senior authors and distinguished scholars at IIASA, underscore that the triple-triple agenda offers a synergistic blueprint for sustainable energy futures. Their vision encapsulates the intertwined challenges of climate change, energy access, and social justice—advocating for coordinated advances across multiple fronts of energy policy.
As global climate goals intensify in urgency, this scientific contribution highlights that without a decisive focus on energy demand management, ambitions to stabilize the climate and enhance global resilience may remain elusive. The study’s evidence-based policy prescriptions provide a timely, pragmatic path forward, marrying technological innovation with equitable governance mechanisms crucial for a just and sustainable energy transition by 2035.
Subject of Research: Energy demand management as a strategic policy domain for climate resilience and social equity.
Article Title: New demand goals for energy and climate resilience.
News Publication Date: 23-Apr-2026.
Web References: DOI link.
References: Bento, N., Grubler, A., & Nakicenovic, N. (2026). New demand goals for energy and climate resilience. Science. DOI: 10.1126/science.adz3492.
Keywords: Energy demand, energy efficiency, electrification, climate resilience, energy policy, energy equity, carbon emissions, sustainable energy transition, energy taxation, energy consumption disparities.
