China’s Ambitious Renewable Energy Future Faces New Challenges from Extreme Weather Events
As the fight against climate change intensifies, China has emerged as a global powerhouse in renewable energy, leading the world with an expansive system dominated by hydropower, wind power, and solar power installations. Driven by aggressive carbon reduction goals, the country’s renewable energy system (RES) holds the promise of redefining clean energy generation at unprecedented scales. However, new research highlights how the very meteorological conditions that sustain wind and solar power are also sources of vulnerability—particularly when extreme weather events converge, posing significant challenges to the reliability and capacity of China’s RES in the coming decades.
A new comprehensive study sheds light on the complex interplay between extreme weather phenomena and the generating capabilities of China’s integrated hydropower, wind, and solar energy system. The research scrutinizes how varying combinations of severe weather conditions, including drought, low wind speeds, and diminished solar irradiance, dramatically affect the annual utilization hours of renewable energy generation. Perhaps most alarmingly, the findings suggest a near 12 percent decline in utilization by 2060 under conditions of prolonged drought paired with weak wind and solar inputs, threatening the dependable supply of electricity.
Hydropower, often regarded as the backbone of dispatchable renewable energy due to its flexibility and relative predictability, is identified as critical for compensating fluctuations in wind and solar output. Yet, the research indicates that the flexibility of hydropower itself is vulnerable during periods of extreme climate stress. When the system experiences episodes of excessively strong solar radiation and wind, hydropower’s ability to provide balancing power is projected to wane significantly, with flexibility shortages expected to occur in nearly half of the provinces by the year 2030. This issue escalates sharply toward mid-century, with shortages projected to affect 60 percent of provinces by 2060, signaling an urgent energy reliability challenge.
The study’s rigorous modelling speaks to the urgency of reevaluating China’s renewable energy infrastructure in light of shifting climatic baselines. Seasonal hydrological shifts and changing wind patterns already disrupt the delicate equilibrium within the hydropower–wind–solar nexus, but the compounding impact of compound extreme weather events presents a new dimension of uncertainty for grid operators and policymakers. These interactions demand a deeper understanding of how extreme droughts, atmospheric stagnation, and intense solar irradiance converge to create complex stressors on renewable energy resources.
In terms of energy storage, the study reveals an alarming shortfall in flexibility that current hydropower capacities alone cannot bridge. Nearly half of the Chinese provinces are expected to require tens of millions of kilowatts of additional energy storage capacity by 2030 to supplement hydropower’s insufficient flexibility. This requirement grows exponentially by 2060, both in the number of provinces affected and the scale of storage capacity needed, potentially doubling the existing demands. Such forecasts underscore the necessity to fast-track investments in large-scale storage technologies such as pumped hydro, advanced battery systems, and innovative energy storage solutions.
The implications of these findings stretch into the realm of power system planning and grid management. Dispatchable power plants—those capable of being ramped up or down quickly in response to demand and supply fluctuations—are highlighted as vital components to bolster the resilience of China’s energy framework. This necessitates innovation not only in hydropower reservoir management but also in integrating emerging technologies that can offer the girding support required amid increasingly volatile weather patterns.
One of the research’s key innovations is quantifying the nuanced relationship between extreme weather combinations and renewable energy output. Traditional analysis often isolates the impact of individual meteorological factors, but this study harnesses sophisticated climate models and energy system simulations to gauge simultaneous occurrences of drought, low wind, and weak solar radiation, as well as the converse scenario of extremely strong wind and solar input. Such an integrative approach provides a comprehensive vantage point on how these compound events influence both the reliability and flexibility of the national RES, fostering a more holistic understanding necessary for future-proofing the grid.
The findings carry profound implications for international climate and energy policy, considering China’s leading position in global renewable energy deployment. As the world’s largest carbon emitter transitions to cleaner energy sources, the resilience of these renewable systems in the face of climate extremes becomes not just a national concern but an international benchmark. The study implicitly calls for coordinated global efforts to share best practices, technological innovations, and strategic planning paradigms that counterbalance the meteorological vulnerabilities of renewable systems.
Another critical insight revolves around regional disparities within China. The uneven geographic distribution of renewable resources and hydropower infrastructure creates challenges in ensuring an equitable and stable energy supply across provinces. Particularly affected are provinces highly dependent on renewable energy sources with limited natural water storage or energy infrastructure to compensate for extremes. Addressing these regional imbalances will be paramount to maintaining energy security and supporting economic stability across the diverse provincial landscape.
Beyond the immediate technical challenges, the research touches on the socio-economic ramifications of fluctuating renewable energy outputs. Interrupted or inconsistent power supplies in response to meteorological extremes could impede industrial productivity, affect urban and rural livelihoods, and increase the economic costs of energy imports or fossil fuel backup systems. This adds another layer of urgency for policymakers to integrate climatic risk assessments into energy infrastructure development to safeguard China’s growing economy and population.
Additionally, the evolving climate patterns forewarned by this study stress the importance of adaptive management and flexible infrastructure design. Energy systems engineered under historical climate norms must evolve to incorporate dynamic feedback mechanisms, real-time meteorological forecasting, and responsive dispatch strategies. Hydropower plants, particularly, may demand redesigned reservoir operating protocols that factor in future hydrological uncertainties to optimize generation and flexibility simultaneously.
While hydropower remains a cornerstone for compensating the variability of wind and solar generation, the study’s projection of reduced annual utilization and increasing flexibility deficits signals the limits of reliance on any single renewable source. This realization underscores a pressing need for diversified energy portfolios, including the development of emerging renewable technologies, smart grid architectures, and demand-side management strategies aimed at shaping consumption patterns in ways that can synchronize better with variable generation.
The research also highlights the essential role of large-scale data analytics and machine learning in predicting and managing the complexities associated with extreme weather and renewable energy interactions. Advanced computational models leveraged to forecast the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events enable grid operators to anticipate periods of stress and preemptively deploy mitigation measures, thereby enhancing system resilience and operational efficiency.
China’s journey toward a carbon-neutral future, while promising, is therefore not without significant hurdles. The growing understanding of how climate change exacerbates the volatility of renewable energy supplies mandates a strategic pivot in both infrastructure development and energy market mechanisms. Facilitating widespread deployment of energy storage, enhancing cross-provincial energy sharing, and investing in grid flexibility solutions will be critical to navigating these challenges.
In summation, this groundbreaking investigation provides a crucial early warning about the vulnerabilities baked into China’s hydropower–wind–solar system under future extreme weather conditions. As climate change continues to shift environmental baselines, energy systems must be robustly engineered to withstand compounded meteorological extremes. The study’s revelations pave the way for targeted policy interventions and technological innovations aimed at safeguarding the immense progress made in renewable energy deployment, ensuring that China’s ambitious green energy transition is both sustainable and reliable for generations to come.
Subject of Research: Quantifying the impact of extreme weather events and future climate conditions on the generating capability, flexibility demand, and hydropower supply within China’s integrated renewable energy system comprising hydropower, wind, and solar power.
Article Title: Quantifying the impact of extreme weather on China’s hydropower–wind–solar renewable energy system.
Article References:
Shen, J., Wang, Y., Lin, M. et al. Quantifying the impact of extreme weather on China’s hydropower–wind–solar renewable energy system. Nat Water 3, 415–429 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-025-00408-9
Image Credits: AI Generated
