In a startling revelation that challenges long-standing assumptions about oceanographic stability in tropical regions, researchers have documented an unprecedented failure of the seasonal upwelling phenomenon along Panama’s Pacific coast in 2025. This rare oceanographic anomaly, occurring in the Gulf of Panama—a region historically known for its highly predictable and productive upwelling—bears profound implications for marine ecosystems, fisheries sustainability, and coastal climate resilience. The findings, recently published in the esteemed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), offer a rare glimpse into how subtle shifts in atmospheric dynamics linked to climate disturbances can rapidly disrupt complex marine processes critical to both biodiversity and human livelihoods.
For decades, the Gulf of Panama has experienced consistent upwelling events during the dry season, roughly spanning December to April, driven primarily by steady northern trade winds. Upwelling is a crucial oceanographic process whereby colder, nutrient-dense waters from the ocean’s depths are transported to the sunlit surface layers. This nutrient injection fuels explosive growth of phytoplankton—the foundation of marine food webs—thereby sustaining some of the world’s richest fisheries and supporting the health of vulnerable coral reef systems by mitigating thermal stress. The Humboldt, Benguela, and California currents are renowned upwelling systems, but Panama’s tropical upwelling has received relatively less scientific attention despite its crucial ecological role, until now.
The team of oceanographers and climate scientists at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI), in partnership with the Max Planck Institute and utilizing data from the S/Y Eugen Seibold research vessel, conducted comprehensive multi-decadal analyses of physical and biological oceanographic variables. Their research confirms that for at least 40 years, the Gulf of Panama’s upwelling cycle adhered to a highly reproducible seasonal pattern, characterized by significant cooling of surface waters and profound spikes in biological productivity. This seasonal cooling has long mitigated heat stress during Panama’s peak tourism months, paradoxically labeled as “summer,” when terrestrial temperatures soar.
However, in early 2025, researchers observed a startling divergence from this norm. Remote sensing data combined with in-situ measurements revealed an absence of the expected decrease in sea surface temperatures and a marked reduction in surface nutrient enrichment, symptoms signaling a near-complete suppression of upwelling. This abrupt halt in upwelling activity coincided with anomalous weakening of the northern trade winds, which researchers identified as the primary mechanistic driver. This atmospheric alteration disrupted the vertical transport of cold, nutrient-rich waters, impairing the Gulf’s biological productivity at a critical time of year.
This upwelling suppression represents an ecological “black swan” event with cascading consequences. The FDA-compliant fisheries dependent on this nutrient pulse faced reduced fish stocks, threatening livelihoods of coastal communities. Moreover, coral reefs that typically benefit from cooler, nutrient-enriched waters were left exposed to elevated thermal stress, increasing vulnerability to bleaching events, disease proliferation, and decreased calcification rates. Together, these effects underscore the fragile equilibrium between climate-driven atmospheric forcings and tropical marine ecosystem resilience.
The implications extend beyond immediate ecological disturbances. The Gulf of Panama is one of the most robust tropical upwelling systems globally, yet it remains critically under-monitored compared to temperate upwelling zones that have been widely studied since the mid-twentieth century. The documented disruption in 2025 exemplifies the urgent need to expand ocean-climate observation networks in tropical latitudes, where data scarcity has hindered early warning capabilities and predictive modeling efforts. Enhanced understanding of tropical ocean-atmosphere coupling will be imperative to anticipating similar events under future climate scenarios.
Notably, the study employed advanced climate modeling coupled with hydrodynamic ocean simulations to probe potential feedback mechanisms underlying the trade wind weakening. The results suggest that shifts in regional pressure gradients, influenced by broader-scale climate oscillations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and anthropogenic climate change, may be inextricably linked to weakened wind stress. Such complex teleconnections highlight the increasing climate sensitivity of tropical ocean systems previously considered stable and resilient.
While the immediate cause of the 2025 upwelling failure appears dominated by atmospheric dynamics, researchers caution that other factors—such as alterations in stratification due to freshwater input or changes in oceanic wave patterns—could modulate the system’s response and severity. Ongoing research seeks to dissect these contributory influences with high-resolution temporal data. This knowledge is crucial for developing adaptive management strategies for fisheries and coral reef conservation in the face of accelerating climate perturbations.
The unprecedented event documented in the Gulf of Panama should serve as a clarion call to the global scientific community and policymakers alike. Tropical marine ecosystems underpin not only biodiversity but also fisheries economies worth billions of dollars annually. Their unanticipated disruptive susceptibility to atmospheric anomalies accentuates the broader vulnerabilities inherent in tropical oceanic climate systems. Integrating ocean-atmosphere interactions into national climate adaptation frameworks will be indispensable for sustaining the socioeconomic fabric of coastal nations reliant on marine resources.
Beyond the regional implications, the findings hint at potential shifts in biogeochemical cycles within tropical ocean basins. Upwelling sites function as hotspots for carbon sequestration via enhanced primary productivity and subsequent export of organic matter to the deep ocean. Interruptions to this mechanism may reduce the ocean’s natural capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas accumulations, introducing feedback loops that further accelerate climate change impacts. This scientific discovery thus resonates with global efforts to understand the ocean’s role in Earth’s climate system.
The 2025 suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling epitomizes how rapidly shifting climatic parameters can unsettle entrenched natural cycles, challenging institutions to anticipate and respond to unprecedented environmental changes. It underlines the critical importance of sustained long-term oceanographic monitoring and interdisciplinary collaboration, exemplified by the partnership between STRI and the Max Planck Institute leveraging the S/Y Eugen Seibold research platform. The data synthesized from this effort provide a valuable baseline as scientists brace for what may be an emerging new normal in tropical ocean dynamics.
In conclusion, the Gulf of Panama’s 2025 upwelling failure is a watershed event that exposes both the vulnerability and the dynamism of tropical marine ecosystems in an era of accelerating global change. The ongoing investigation into the atmospheric mechanisms and ecological consequences holds far-reaching significance for climate science, marine biology, and fisheries management. As tropical upwelling regions worldwide face analogous pressures, this pioneering study delivers a compelling narrative on the intricate interdependencies driving ocean resilience and the urgency of enhanced scientific vigilance.
Subject of Research: Oceanographic processes, tropical upwelling, climate-induced atmospheric changes, marine ecosystem impacts
Article Title: Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025
News Publication Date: 1-Sep-2025
Web References:
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
DOI Link to Article
References:
O’Dea, A., et al. 2025. Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 122. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2512056122
Image Credits: Natasha Hinojosa
Keywords: Panama upwelling, tropical oceanography, climate disruption, fisheries productivity, coral reef thermal stress, trade wind anomalies, marine ecosystem resilience, tropical climate change, nutrient cycling, ocean-atmosphere interaction
