In recent months, a contentious proposal has surfaced within U.S. agricultural and public health policy circles: to permit the uncontrolled spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) among poultry with the aim of identifying birds that survive infection naturally. This approach, suggested by some high-ranking federal officials including Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, is being touted as a means to discover and preserve poultry with innate resistance to the HPAI virus. However, a coalition of virologists, veterinarians, and health security experts led by Erin Sorrell have issued a vigorous rebuttal to this strategy, describing it as both dangerous and ethically indefensible.
The core of Sorrell and colleagues’ argument revolves around the biological and epidemiological dynamics of HPAI viruses. These viruses are highly lethal to poultry, rapidly evolving, and possess substantial contagion potential. Allowing the virus to spread unchecked in dense poultry populations would not only inflict severe, needless suffering on the birds but also elevate the risks of viral adaptation. Such adaptive mutations could enable the pathogen to establish reservoirs in poultry or other animals, amplifying the potential for subsequent spillover into wild or domestic mammalian species, and critically, human hosts.
The recent history of HPAI outbreaks in the United States underscores the gravity of these risks. Since January 2022, more than 173 million birds have been infected, resulting in considerable mortality and large-scale culling measures. These events spotlight the virus’s capacity for vast propagation under livestock farming conditions. The suggested policy, however, would essentially embrace this viral spread rather than curtail it, relying on natural selection to reveal resistant birds but at what cost?
Sorrell et al. emphasize that this “let-it-spread” approach could serve as a catalyst for viral evolution. When a deadly virus circulates extensively in a host population, selective pressures drive the emergence of variants that can evade immune responses or gain enhanced transmissibility. This evolutionary trajectory greatly increases the probability that the virus will jump species barriers, creating novel public health threats. The potential for generating persistent viral reservoirs in U.S. poultry farms raises the specter of future pandemics with devastating human and economic impacts.
Aside from virological concerns, the economic implications of permitting the uncontrolled spread of HPAI are profound. Poultry and eggs represent a staple source of affordable protein for millions of Americans. Large-scale infections would undoubtedly lead to significant production declines, pushing prices upward and restricting consumer access to these vital commodities. The ripple effects could extend beyond farms, affecting feed suppliers, processing plants, and transportation networks, thereby destabilizing entire rural economies that rely heavily on poultry agriculture.
Trade is another vulnerable sector in this scenario. Many countries maintain strict import restrictions on poultry products from regions known to be affected by HPAI outbreaks. A policy enabling unchecked viral circulation could precipitate international bans or severe curtailments on U.S. poultry exports. This would not only compound economic losses but also tarnish the reputation of American poultry industries in the global market.
From a public health standpoint, prolonged viral presence on farms elevates occupational exposure for farmworkers. Continuous contact with infected birds increases the likelihood of zoonotic transmission events. Such spillover occurrences are hazardous because they provide opportunities for the virus to adapt to human hosts, a critical step in the emergence of human-to-human transmissible strains.
Sorrell and colleagues stress the ethical dimension of the proposal. Allowing a highly lethal virus to run rampant in animal populations contradicts established animal welfare principles. The unnecessary suffering imposed on millions of birds would be enormous, raising profound moral questions that intersect with broader goals of ethical stewardship in animal husbandry.
Instead of adopting a high-risk and controversial approach, Sorrell et al. advocate for reinforcing and expanding existing surveillance programs. Enhanced detection and monitoring of HPAI strains would facilitate rapid outbreak responses, reducing the extent of viral circulation and minimizing transmission chains. Investment in next-generation diagnostic technologies and real-time data sharing among agencies would be critical components of these efforts.
Furthermore, the authors call for the development and deployment of novel, science-based tools to mitigate spillover risks. These might include improved vaccines tailored to circulating HPAI variants, biosecurity enhancements tailored to farm infrastructure, and innovative biocontainment technologies designed to limit environmental contamination. Such strategies promise to safeguard not only poultry health but also broader ecological and public health systems.
The coalition also highlights that the U.S. national infrastructure—both in public health and agriculture—is currently ill-prepared to contend with the unchecked spread of HPAI, particularly if it were to infect mammalian or human populations. They plead for an urgent reassessment of policy frameworks, favoring proactive, evidence-driven intervention rather than laissez-faire permissiveness.
Finally, should such a policy be enacted, the authors make clear that it would require prompt reversal. They envision instead a collaborative, multi-agency response that is grounded in on-the-ground realities and informed by real-time implementation science. This approach, emphasizing adaptive management and frontline feedback, would foster the development of effective mitigation strategies aligned with both agricultural sustainability and public health security.
In conclusion, the proposal to allow HPAI to spread unchecked in U.S. poultry is fraught with biological, economic, ethical, and public health dangers. The arguments presented by Sorrell et al. underscore the necessity for caution, rigorous science, and responsible stewardship in managing zoonotic pathogens with pandemic potential. As the stakes are high, both for animal welfare and for human populations, policymakers must weigh the compelling evidence against “let-it-spread” schemes and prioritize strategies that curtail viral evolution and minimize spillover risks.
Subject of Research: The risks and consequences of allowing the uncontrolled spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in U.S. poultry, focusing on viral adaptation, public health, animal welfare, and economic impact.
Article Title: The consequences of letting avian influenza run rampant in US poultry
News Publication Date: 3-Jul-2025
Web References:
10.1126/science.adx8639
Keywords: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, HPAI, viral adaptation, poultry health, zoonotic spillover, pandemic risk, animal welfare, agricultural economics, biosecurity, surveillance, outbreak response, viral evolution
