New Research Uncovers Vegetation Collapse as Key Driver of Prolonged Super-Greenhouse Climate after Earth’s Greatest Extinction
A groundbreaking international study has shed new light on one of the most perplexing environmental phenomena in Earth’s deep past—the persistence of extreme global warming following the Permian–Triassic Mass Extinction. This event, often called the “Great Dying,” occurred approximately 252 million years ago and represents the most catastrophic extinction in Earth’s history, erasing an estimated 90% of marine species alongside severe declines in terrestrial flora and fauna. Despite decades of research linking this mass extinction to volcanic activity in the Siberian Traps and resultant intense warming, scientists have struggled to explain why super-greenhouse conditions endured for nearly five million years afterward. The latest research proposes a compelling answer: the collapse of tropical forests fundamentally altered the planet’s carbon cycle, reducing its capacity to sequester atmospheric CO2 and thereby extending the duration of greenhouse climate.
The team of researchers, led jointly by the University of Leeds and the China University of Geosciences in Wuhan, utilized an innovative approach combining detailed fossil analysis with geological data from sedimentary formations to reconstruct historical vegetation productivity. By employing newly developed methods to interpret plant fossil records alongside paleoclimatic markers embedded in rock strata, they successfully mapped spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics through this critical interval. Their results demonstrate a dramatic collapse of tropical forest ecosystems coinciding with the extinction event, which strongly curtailed global carbon sequestration. Crucially, this vegetation loss impaired the natural “carbon sink” mechanism vital for stabilizing atmospheric CO2, leading to prolonged super-greenhouse warming that persisted well beyond initial volcanic forcing.
This landmark study, recently published in Nature Communications, marks a paradigm shift in understanding how ecological thresholds and tipping points interact with Earth’s climate system. In contrast to previous models that emphasized volcanic emissions as the sole driver, these findings highlight the integral role of biosphere feedbacks in amplifying climate change trajectories. The lead author, Dr. Zhen Xu of the University of Leeds’ School of Earth and Environment, emphasized the uniqueness of this event in Earth’s history: “This is the only known occasion marked by a wholesale collapse of the tropical forest biosphere coinciding with extreme temperatures. Our hypothesis, grounded in years of intensive fieldwork and analysis, now has robust empirical and computational support.”
China’s extensive paleoecological archives proved pivotal for this investigation, providing some of the most complete and continuously preserved fossil records of the Permian-Triassic boundary. Over years, research expeditions braved challenging terrains—from subtropical forests and arid deserts to remote locales only accessible by horseback or boat—to collect fossil specimens and climatic proxies. These efforts, building on decades of geological work by three generations of Chinese geologists, enriched global understanding of paleoenvironmental transformations during the extinction. Dr. Xu continued this legacy by integrating fossil datasets with advanced climate simulations in collaboration with University of Leeds’ Professor Benjamin Mills, reconciling the fossil evidence with modeled carbon cycle perturbations and temperature anomalies.
The computational modeling aspect of the study revealed a compelling alignment between the fossil record-derived reduction in carbon sequestration and the magnitude of subsequent warming. These results indicate that once rainforest and tropical vegetation systems were decimated, the Earth’s ability to regulate carbon diminished drastically, creating a feedback loop that sustained super-greenhouse conditions for millions of years. Professor Mills remarked on the chilling implications for today’s climate trajectory, stating, “The lessons from deep time are clear: if modern tropical forests suffer a similar collapse due to rapid anthropogenic climate change, the resulting disruption to the carbon cycle could prevent a return to preindustrial atmospheric CO2 levels, even with zero future emissions. We risk committing our planet to centuries or millennia of intensified warming.”
This recognition of ecological tipping points stresses the fundamental interconnectedness of biosphere health and climate stability. Tropical forests serve as a major terrestrial carbon sink, moderating atmospheric CO2 and regulating global temperatures. Their demise in the Early Triassic not only illuminates past climate dynamics but also offers a dire warning for contemporary conservation and climate mitigation strategies. The prolonged nature of warming following vegetation collapse underscores how recovery processes can operate on geological timescales, far slower than human lifespans, highlighting the urgency of protecting existing ecosystems.
Reflecting on the broader significance, Professors Hongfu Yin and Jianxin Yu from the China University of Geosciences underscored the necessity of integrating traditional paleontological methods with cutting-edge computational and interdisciplinary approaches. Their call for collaboration across disciplines represents a vital strategy to deepen understanding of past Earth systems and apply that knowledge toward safeguarding the future. Professor Yin remarked, “Paleontology must embrace innovations such as numerical modeling and cross-sector partnerships to decode Earth’s history comprehensively.” Meanwhile, Professor Yu implored that scientific discoveries should transcend academia, recognizing collective responsibility for all life on Earth: “Earth’s story is ongoing, and we all have a part to play in shaping its future chapters.”
In sum, this comprehensive investigation into the Permian-Triassic Mass Extinction provides convincing evidence that the collapse of tropical forests drove a critical tipping point in Earth’s climate system, inducing a sustained super-greenhouse phase. By elucidating the link between biosphere collapse and carbon cycle feedbacks, the study offers both a window into a pivotal moment in geological history and a cautionary tale for our present and future climate pathways. As global temperatures rise and ecosystems face mounting pressure, understanding these deep-time precedents could not be more urgent.
The interdisciplinary methodology combining extensive fossil analysis, geochemical proxies, and sophisticated computational modeling represents a defining advancement for Earth system science. This integrative approach allows for a more nuanced reconstruction of feedback mechanisms regulating carbon flux during planetary crises. Moving forward, continued exploration of ancient extinction events will refine models of biosphere-climate interaction and enhance predictive capabilities concerning contemporary climate resilience and potential collapse scenarios.
This work received substantial support from the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), complemented by contributions from ETH+, the Australian Research Council, and numerous global academic collaborators. The synergy between multiple research institutions, from the University of Leeds and China University of Geosciences to ETH Zürich and the University of Adelaide, exemplifies the power of collaborative science in tackling complex Earth science challenges. As the research community advances, such international partnerships will be indispensable in unlocking the secrets of Earth’s past and informing its sustainable future.
Subject of Research:
Article Title: Early Triassic super-greenhouse climate driven by vegetation collapse
News Publication Date: 2 July 2025
Web References: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60396-y
References: Xu, Z., et al. (2025). Early Triassic super-greenhouse climate driven by vegetation collapse. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60396-y
Image Credits: Photos of pre-extinction tropical rainforest seed fern Gigantopteris and fieldwork images of Dr. Zhen Xu courtesy of Dr. Zhen Xu
Keywords: Earth sciences, Earth systems science, Climatology, Geology, Planet Earth
