Satellite study maps Hurricane Erick impacts and projects Oaxaca shoreline change through 2045

A multidecadal satellite study of Mexico’s Oaxaca coast found that Hurricane Erick in June 2025 coincided with marked shoreline displacement: erosion hotspots retreated by as much as 289 metres, while some sheltered or sediment-rich areas advanced by as much as 825 metres. The research also projected further erosion in historically unstable coastal segments for 2035 and 2045, and identified some stable areas that may face high erosion risk. Its scope was the coastal region of Oaxaca State rather than the hurricane alone.

Researchers used multi-temporal satellite imagery from 1995, 2005, 2015 and 2025 to examine long-term shoreline movement in Oaxaca. They combined remote sensing, geographic information systems and machine learning with three established shoreline-change techniques: end point rate, linear regression rate and net shoreline movement. In the pre- and post-hurricane analysis, net shoreline movement captured the maximum observed changes. River mouths and exposed sections of beach were common erosion hotspots, whereas accretion occurred in some areas described as sheltered or rich in sediment.

The findings show that the coastline did not respond uniformly to Erick. The before-and-after comparison detected both erosional and depositional trends associated with the event, including shoreline displacement of up to minus 289 metres in some hotspots and as much as 825 metres in accretion zones. The spatial pattern was consistent with a complex interplay among natural forcing mechanisms, sediment transport and anthropogenic influences such as coastal infrastructure development. However, the reported results do not assign a measured share of the changes to any one of these factors or provide a controlled estimate of the counterfactual shoreline without the hurricane.

Machine-learning projections based on the historical shoreline record indicate that the area’s historically unstable segments will continue to erode through 2035 and 2045. The models further suggest that some currently stable segments may move into a high-erosion-risk category. Gains in accretionary areas are also forecast to vary, with natural conditions and possible coastal-protection interventions identified as influences on those outcomes. These are model-based projections rather than observed changes, and the available study summary does not provide a separate quantitative assessment of forecast uncertainty.

The study demonstrates the value of examining event-scale shoreline disturbance together with multidecadal movement. Hurricanes can produce abrupt local changes along coastlines already shaped by long-term processes, while erosion and accretion remain unevenly distributed among river mouths, exposed beaches, sheltered locations and sediment-rich zones. The authors advocate incorporating hurricane-related variability into erosion-hazard mapping and policy planning, with the aim of supporting adaptive, data-driven management of at-risk communities, infrastructure and coastal ecosystems. The specific forecasts remain tied to the Oaxaca study area and should not be treated as direct measurements of future shoreline positions.

Subject of Research: Multidecadal shoreline change and Hurricane Erick impacts along Oaxaca’s coast

Article Title: Assessment of Multidecadal Shoreline Dynamics and Short-Term Impact of Hurricane Erick (2025)

Article References: Obayya, M., Alshammeri, M., Althobaiti, T., Britto, A. S. F., Kavitha, M., Begum, A. S., Sivakumar, V., & Jayasankar, T. (2026). Assessment of Multidecadal Shoreline Dynamics and Short-Term Impact of Hurricane Erick (2025). Earth Science Informatics, 19(12), Article 222. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-026-02272-x

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s12145-026-02272-x

Keywords: Hurricane Erick, Oaxaca coast, shoreline erosion, coastal accretion, satellite imagery, remote sensing, machine learning, shoreline projection, coastal hazards, Mexico, Assessment, Multidecadal