One Weather Pattern Linked to Higher Wildfire Danger in Western Macedonia

Wildfires recorded in the cross-border region of Western Macedonia in Greece and North Macedonia were associated with hot, dry conditions, and every analyzed fire event occurred under High, Very High or Extreme Fire Weather Index classifications, according to a statistical study covering May through October from 2008 to 2021. The analysis also identified a weather pattern that became more frequent during the study period and was linked to the highest wildfire danger among the patterns examined. Researchers working within the Cross Border Complex Floods and Forest Fires Prevention and Management, known as the SOLVE project, combined historical fire records with hourly meteorological observations.

The weather variables included air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, atmospheric boundary-layer height, total cloud cover, precipitation and pressure. Fire and weather information was retrieved from the European Forest Fire Information System and the ERA5 Copernicus database. This observational study assessed the meteorological conditions associated with recorded fires in the two-country region rather than experimentally testing whether any single weather variable caused them.

The initial statistical analysis focused on daily noon observations on fire-event days. Across the analyzed events, mean air temperature was 29.2 °C and mean relative humidity was 25.4%. Precipitation averaged 0.06 mm per day, while winds were predominantly northerly or westerly and had an average speed of 2.3 m/s.

The reported averages do not quantify the difference between fire days and days without recorded fires, so they should not be interpreted as evidence that the conditions were unusual relative to the entire study period. The researchers next applied a weather-clustering method to the complete dataset to identify dominant weather patterns. They interpreted those patterns with the daily Fire Weather Index developed by the Canadian Forest Service.

One cluster, designated Cluster 4, showed the strongest association with fire danger: its average Fire Weather Index was 32, and Extreme conditions predominated within it. The number of occurrences of this pattern increased over the study period. That result describes the observed frequency of the weather pattern; it is not a projection of future fires and does not by itself demonstrate an increase in total burned area or in the number of fire events.

All analyzed fire events fell within the High, Very High or Extreme Fire Weather Index categories, while Cluster 4 combined the highest average index value with a predominance of Extreme classifications. The findings can support the development of coordinated wildfire-prevention and operational strategies by civil-protection agencies in both countries, which is an aim of the SOLVE project. The evidence is specific to the regional fire-event dataset and its dominant weather patterns.

It does not directly measure the effectiveness of any prevention measure or establish how emergency responses were coordinated across the border.

Subject of Research: Meteorological conditions associated with wildfires in Western Macedonia and North Macedonia

Article Title: Statistical analysis of weather factors influencing wildfire behaviour in the cross-border area of Western-Macedonia, Greece and North Macedonia. The SOLVE-Project

Article References: Sakellaris, I., Bartzis, J., Sfetsos, A., Maggos, T., Siarga, M., & Bakouros, I. (2026). Statistical analysis of weather factors influencing wildfire behaviour in the cross-border area of Western-Macedonia, Greece and North Macedonia. The SOLVE-Project. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 157(11), Article 732. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06664-3

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s00704-026-06664-3

Keywords: wildfire weather, Western Macedonia, North Macedonia, Greece, Fire Weather Index, weather clustering, cross-border fires, SOLVE project, Statistical, analysis, weather, factors