In an era where the fragility of global systems is increasingly apparent, a groundbreaking study published in PLOS One on May 7, 2025, offers a compelling and meticulous analysis of how urban and near-urban agriculture can play a critical role in sustaining food security in the face of abrupt global catastrophic disruptions. These disruptions, which may include nuclear conflicts, unpredictable pandemics, or massive solar storms, threaten to sever the intricate web of international trade, particularly the food and fuel supply chains that modern cities heavily depend upon. The research, led by Dr. Matt Boyd of Adapt Research Ltd and Dr. Nick Wilson of the University of Otago, both based in New Zealand, goes beyond previous theoretical work by employing computational simulations alongside detailed geographic and agricultural analysis to quantify precisely how a median-sized temperate city could adapt and survive in such dire circumstances.
The crux of the research centers on Palmerston North, New Zealand, a city representative of many that lie within temperate climate zones globally. Modern urban centers, like Palmerston North, typically rely on highly centralized and globalized food production systems, vulnerable to the abrupt cessation of trade and fuel availability. Boyd and Wilson explored the potential of urban agriculture, which encompasses home gardens, community plots, and rooftop farms, to provide sustenance locally. While urban agriculture has been considered a tactical solution, this study reveals it can, on its own, support only approximately 20% of a city’s population in extreme conditions — a sobering yet vital statistic that underscores the necessity of incorporating broader, near-urban agricultural zones.
The methodology is particularly noteworthy. Utilizing Google Earth for precise land-use analysis, the researchers painstakingly identified cultivable areas within the urban boundaries and close periphery, then overlaid this with crop yield data under various climatic scenarios. This spatially-explicit modeling enabled a surprisingly detailed depiction of the productivity thresholds necessary to maintain food security absent external trade. Their findings clearly demonstrate that while the immediate urban footprint is insufficient for complete sustenance, incorporating an additional 1,140 hectares of near-urban agricultural land can feasibly feed the entire population of Palmerston North.
An equally critical insight pertains to fuel needs. Agricultural machinery, whether for tilling, planting, or harvesting, traditionally depends upon liquid fuels—a resource likely severely diminished in a global trade collapse. The researchers found that designating 110 hectares within the near-urban agricultural land to cultivate biofuel crops, such as canola or rapeseed, could supply enough fuel to support mechanized farming efforts. This integrated system, combining food and fuel production, paints a hopeful picture of resilience through strategic land use and crop selection.
Crop choice emerges as a delicate balance of nutritional density, caloric yield, and land efficiency, especially when considering extreme scenarios like nuclear winter — a theoretical global cooling event resulting from widespread firestorms blocking sunlight. In typical temperate conditions, peas offer a remarkable balance of protein and calories relative to their spatial footprint, making them an optimal urban agriculture crop. Contrastingly, in nuclear winter scenarios, the best options shift to more resilient crops such as sugar beets and spinach, which can tolerate significantly reduced sunlight and cooler temperatures.
Near-urban agriculture also requires adaptation to these diversified scenarios. Potatoes are optimal under normal temperate climates due to their high yields and caloric contributions. However, under nuclear winter conditions, wheat and carrots are better suited, their hardiness and relative growth speed enabling them to withstand adverse cold weather and shorter growing seasons. This nuanced, scenario-based approach to urban food production is a critical advancement over prior studies that often did not account for climate variability and potential extreme weather consequences.
Beyond the technical findings, this research casts a spotlight on broader socio-political challenges. Dr. Boyd emphasizes that the path toward urban resilience is neither simple nor technological alone. It will require the integration of food production frameworks into urban planning and national security policies alike. Protecting existing near-urban agricultural lands from development pressure and securing seed supplies for critical crops become paramount under these strategies. Moreover, building local food processing and distribution infrastructures will ensure that increased food production translates into actual availability and consumption.
Interestingly, the study’s methods and conclusions possess global applicability. While Palmerston North serves as a practical case study, the framework can be adapted and customized by policymakers, urban planners, and researchers worldwide to assess the food security potential of their respective cities under similar conditions. This adaptability offers a crucial tool in global preparedness, enabling cities to not only survive but maintain social stability if global trade networks are disrupted.
The implications of this study reach far beyond mere food security. In an interconnected world susceptible to cascading failures across economies and supply chains, localizing food systems through combined urban and near-urban agriculture can form the backbone of community resilience and autonomy. The model promotes sustainability by reducing dependency on fossil fuels and long-haul transport while increasing green spaces that provide ancillary environmental benefits.
Moreover, the integration of biofuel crops within urban peripheries underscores the potential of agricultural diversity in addressing multiple challenges simultaneously: food production, energy provision, and climate adaptation. The researchers’ emphasis on combining these elements into holistic urban ecosystems reflects emerging blueprints for sustainable cities, blending food sovereignty with urban design principles.
This study also points to gaps and opportunities for future research. For instance, understanding labor requirements, social acceptance of transformed urban landscapes, and logistical challenges in seed distribution and crop processing remain essential areas awaiting exploration. The technological angle—especially mechanization alternatives in low-fuel conditions or advanced urban agriculture techniques like vertical farms—could complement the land-use strategies laid out by Boyd and Wilson.
In conclusion, this study marks a pivotal step in reframing urban food security through scientifically grounded, spatially detailed, and scenario-sensitive modeling. It challenges prevailing assumptions by revealing that while urban agriculture is insufficient alone, when strategically combined with near-urban farming and biofuel production, cities can cultivate a robust, local-based defense against global disruptions. As geopolitical tensions, climate instability, and pandemic risks loom large, the ability of urban centers globally to pivot toward localized, sustainable, and diversified food systems could determine whether millions endure or perish amid future crises. The integration of urban and near-urban agriculture, powered by thoughtful planning and supported by resilient infrastructure, is not merely a theoretical exercise but a necessity for sober preparedness.
Subject of Research: Not applicable
Article Title: Resilience to abrupt global catastrophic risks disrupting trade: Combining urban and near-urban agriculture in a quantified case study of a globally median-sized city
News Publication Date: 7-May-2025
Web References: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0321203
References: Boyd M, Wilson N (2025) Resilience to abrupt global catastrophic risks disrupting trade: Combining urban and near-urban agriculture in a quantified case study of a globally median-sized city. PLoS ONE 20(5): e0321203.
Image Credits: Werner Lojowski, Pexels, CC0
Keywords: urban agriculture, near-urban farming, food security, global catastrophic risks, nuclear winter, biofuel crops, Palmerston North, sustainability, climate resilience, computational modeling
