A new UK study tracking how smokers source cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco reports a notable rise in purchases from illicit channels. Researchers analysed repeated cross-sectional survey data collected from 9,996 participants aged 16 and over who said they currently smoke, focusing on purchasing behaviour over a six-month window in 2023 and 2025.
In 2025, 23.1% of smokers reported buying tobacco from illicit sources at least once, compared with 12.2% in 2023. While the majority of respondents—76.9%—still said they bought tobacco only from legal outlets, the shift suggests changing purchasing strategies among smokers as affordability pressures intensify.
The paper, published in Nicotine & Tobacco Research, describes how participants approached the market in ways that may reflect both economic strain and changing access. Lead author Professor Sarah Jackson of UCL’s Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care argues that financial pressure can push smokers toward cheaper options, including illicit routes, switching to lower-cost legal products, cutting down, or attempting cessation.
Senior author Professor Jamie Brown cautions that an increase in reported illicit sourcing does not automatically mean the illicit supply chain has expanded proportionally. The survey measured whether people bought from different source types, but did not track purchase frequency or quantity, limiting what can be inferred about the overall size of the illicit market.
Action on Smoking and Health’s chief executive, Hazel Cheeseman, highlights that official estimates have not shown a recent surge in illicit market size, which has fallen substantially since the early 2000s. Still, she warns against complacency, urging continued close monitoring and sustained efforts to prevent illegal sales.
The study also raises concerns about youth access. Among 16-to-17-year-olds who reported purchasing tobacco, 73.6% said they bought from newsagents and corner shops—consistent with long-term patterns of underage purchasing through formal retail.
Cross-border behaviour increased during the study period after international travel resumed post-pandemic, but online purchasing remained uncommon. The findings therefore point to illicit “in-person” pathways—such as buying cheaply from friends or obtaining tobacco “under the counter” through otherwise legal retailers—as prominent components of illicit sourcing.
Researchers frame the results as a timely snapshot ahead of the UK’s Tobacco and Vapes Act and the Smokefree Generation policy. Under the policy, selling tobacco to people born on or after 1 January 2009 will become illegal, with enforcement and retailer compliance expected to be crucial to reducing youth access over time.
Finally, the authors note key limitations: the work relies on self-reported data, which may be affected by recall bias or social desirability. It also does not quantify how much tobacco is bought via each route, and online channels may be misclassified depending on how respondents describe the purchase context.
Subject of Research: People
Article Title: Evolving cigarette and hand-rolling tobacco purchasing patterns ahead of smokefree generation legislation in Great Britain: a population study, 2020-2025
News Publication Date: 16-Jul-2026
Web References: https://academic.oup.com/ntr/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/ntr/ntag133
References: 10.1093/ntr/ntag133
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Keywords: Tobacco
