Foresight framework links future scenarios to blue economy resilience

A review of published studies concludes that integrating foresight into resilience strategies can help governance systems for the blue economy anticipate change rather than focus mainly on reacting to disturbances. The authors developed a framework identifying four functions through which foresight can support resilience: detecting signals of change, exploring future possibilities, preparing for disruption and adapting to new conditions. The review addresses pressures associated with climate change, biodiversity loss and socio-economic transformation, which are increasing the challenges facing the sustainable development of the blue economy and the marine and coastal systems that support it.

Although resilience has become central to responses to these pressures, its application has largely emphasized reactive measures after disturbances. The article identifies a gap in how environmental governance systems engage proactively with long-term uncertainty. At the center of the proposed framework is the idea that anticipatory capacity depends on connecting knowledge about emerging trends and uncertainties with decision-making.

Detecting signals helps decision-makers identify change that may warrant attention, while exploring future possibilities allows them to examine potential conditions and scenarios. Preparation focuses on readiness for disruption, and adaptation addresses governance responses as circumstances change. Together, these functions offer a structured way to combine foresight with resilience-building in the blue economy.

The review also identifies practical limitations in current governance. Social and behavioural dimensions are not sufficiently integrated into foresight activities, while institutional constraints hinder the systematic use of foresight in policy contexts. The authors additionally highlight the need to connect foresight more effectively with institutional decision-making so that knowledge of emerging trends and uncertainty can influence policy and planning rather than remain a separate exercise.

Based on these findings, the article recommends embedding foresight within policy and planning processes for a resilient blue economy. Governance systems could use the four-function framework to identify relevant signals, consider future possibilities, prepare for potential disruption and adapt to new conditions. The work is a review and framework-building article based on an analysis of published studies, not a field trial of a specific intervention.

Its contribution is a conceptual and practical structure for making anticipatory knowledge more relevant to resilience-oriented environmental governance.

Subject of Research: A review-based framework for integrating foresight with resilience in blue economy governance

Article Title: Integrating foresight and resilience strategies for a sustainable blue economy

Article References: Pace, L. A., & Walker, T. J. (2026). Integrating foresight and resilience strategies for a sustainable blue economy. Discover Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-04821-2

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s43621-026-04821-2

Keywords: blue economy, foresight, resilience, anticipatory governance, marine governance, coastal systems, climate change, biodiversity loss, Integrating, strategies, sustainable, blue