A groundbreaking development in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction has emerged with the introduction of a preliminary model tailored specifically for Latin America and the Caribbean. This initiative addresses a critical gap in cardiovascular health management, given the significant disease burden in these regions and the current reliance on models primarily derived from European populations. Announced at the prestigious ESC Preventive Cardiology 2026 conference in Ljubljana, Slovenia, the novel risk assessment framework, known as SCORE2-LAC, promises to revolutionize preventive cardiology by offering precision and region-appropriate prognostication.
The foundation of cardiovascular risk prediction models like SCORE2 is the synthesis of multiple risk factors, including age, sex, blood pressure, cholesterol levels, and smoking status, to derive an individual’s probability of experiencing cardiovascular events such as myocardial infarction and stroke over the next decade. While SCORE2 has proven invaluable across Europe, its direct application in Latin American and Caribbean populations is limited by demographic, genetic, lifestyle, and healthcare disparities. Consequently, accurate regional recalibration is indispensable to improve predictive accuracy, individualized risk stratification, and ultimately guide clinical decision-making with culturally contextualized preventive interventions.
Recognizing this imperative, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) has partnered with the Inter-American Society of Cardiology (SIAC) to spearhead the recalibration process through the newly minted SCORE2-LAC initiative. This collaborative effort integrates epidemiological data from extensive cohorts, encompassing over 2.6 million individuals across 32 countries within Latin America and the Caribbean, augmented by an imminent integration of data from an additional 37 million Brazilians. The breadth of this dataset ensures a comprehensive representation of heterogeneity in environmental factors, socioeconomic status, and genetic backgrounds endemic to the region.
The technical methodology underpinning SCORE2-LAC mirrors that utilized in the recalibration of SCORE2 for the Asia-Pacific region, harnessing advanced statistical modeling techniques and Cox proportional hazards regression approaches. This process enables the derivation of region-specific hazard functions and the adjustment of baseline risk to harmonize with observed regional event rates, thereby enhancing predictive fidelity. By calibrating against contemporary mortality and morbidity statistics, SCORE2-LAC mitigates the biases introduced by unadjusted extrapolations of European data, which often underestimate or overestimate risk in non-European populations.
Professor Frank Visseren, a leading authority in cardiovascular epidemiology from the University Medical Center Utrecht, emphasizes that while SCORE2’s core algorithmic structure remains robust, its clinical utility outside Europe necessitates empirical validation and recalibration. “Translating a model to a new population is a complex process requiring rigorous data assimilation and prospective validation to account for the epidemiological and lifestyle nuances unique to that population,” he notes. This diligent approach prevents misclassification of risk that could otherwise lead to undertreatment or overtreatment.
Doctor Stella Bijkerk, actively engaged in model development, highlights the unprecedented scale and granularity of data incorporated into SCORE2-LAC. By assimilating both average risk factor distributions and precise regional mortality rates, the model is poised to furnish healthcare professionals with an unparalleled tool for identifying individuals at heightened risk who may derive the greatest benefit from targeted interventions such as lipid-lowering therapies, antihypertensives, and lifestyle modifications. Prospective external validations are planned across at least eight different national cohorts to ensure robustness and generalizability.
The importance of developing region-specific cardiovascular risk models cannot be overstated, especially considering the unique epidemiological features present in Latin America and the Caribbean. These include variable prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, smoking habits, obesity, and access to healthcare services, all of which substantially influence cardiovascular outcomes. Additionally, genetic admixtures prevalent in these populations influence disease susceptibility and pathophysiology in ways that differ markedly from European cohorts.
Professor Carlos Ignacio Ponte Negretti, representing SIAC and the clinical community in Latin America, underscores the historic nature of this endeavor. The availability of a rigorously validated, locally derived cardiovascular risk prediction instrument symbolizes a paradigm shift toward precision medicine and tailored preventive cardiology in the region. It opens avenues for dynamic public health policies, enhanced clinical practice guidelines, and intensified research efforts to dissect the complex interplay of risk factors and social determinants of health.
The final version of the SCORE2-LAC model is anticipated to be unveiled at the ESC Congress 2026 scheduled for August in Munich, Germany, marking a significant milestone in global cardiovascular risk stratification efforts. Its deployment is expected to catalyze improved early identification of high-risk individuals, enable more efficient allocation of preventive resources, and potentially reduce the substantial cardiovascular morbidity and mortality plaguing Latin America and the Caribbean.
This initiative reflects the ESC’s broader commitment to global health equity by closing gaps in CVD prevention and care worldwide. The technological precision embedded in SCORE2-LAC, combined with its extensive multinational dataset, exemplifies the evolving landscape of cardiovascular epidemiology—one increasingly cognizant of regional variability and the imperative for adaptive clinical tools.
As cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of mortality globally, and an escalating public health crisis in Latin American and Caribbean regions, implementation of a highly calibrated risk prediction model stands to transform the paradigm of care. The integration of science, multinational cooperation, and cutting-edge analytics embodied by SCORE2-LAC epitomizes the future direction of preventive cardiology: data-driven, inclusive, and regionally bespoke.
In sum, SCORE2-LAC is more than a recalibrated algorithm; it represents a beacon of innovation and optimism for cardiovascular health in Latin America and the Caribbean, providing a scientific foundation upon which healthcare providers can build more effective, equitable, and personalized preventive strategies.
Subject of Research: Cardiovascular disease risk prediction models tailored for Latin America and the Caribbean regions.
Article Title: Preliminary SCORE2 Latin America and the Caribbean: Advancing Cardiovascular Risk Estimation with a Region-Specific Predictive Model.
News Publication Date: 24 April 2026.
Web References:
- ESC Preventive Cardiology 2026: https://www.escardio.org/events/congresses/esc-preventive-cardiology
- Young Investigator Award session: https://esc365.escardio.org/preventive-cardiology/sessions/18692-young-investigator-award-primary-care-risk-factor-management
References:
- SCORE 2 working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk collaboration. SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe. Eur Heart J. 2021;42:2439–2454.
- Visseren FLJ, Mach F, Smulders YM, et al. 2021 ESC guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice. Eur Heart J. 2021;42:3227–3337.
- GBD 2023 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. Lancet. 2025;406:1811–1872.
- SCORE2 Asia-Pacific writing group. Risk prediction of cardiovascular disease in the Asia-Pacific region: the SCORE2 Asia-Pacific model. Eur Heart J. 2025;46:702–715.
Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, risk prediction, SCORE2, SCORE2-LAC, Latin America, Caribbean, preventive cardiology, epidemiology, regional recalibration, cardiovascular risk stratification, global health, cardiovascular epidemiology.
