A groundbreaking 19-year study has unveiled a concerning rise in deaths caused by extreme temperature exposure in India, highlighting a critical public health issue that demands urgent attention. Conducted by researchers at O.P Jindal Global University (JGU), the study reveals that approximately 20,000 individuals succumbed to heatstroke over the last two decades, while cold exposure accounted for nearly 15,000 fatalities nationwide. These alarming figures underscore the growing mortality risk posed by both heat waves and cold spells in one of the world’s most climatically diverse countries.
Published in the peer-reviewed journal Temperature, this comprehensive analysis offers a rare long-term perspective on temperature-related mortality in India. Unlike previous studies that predominantly focused on developed nations or isolated weather events, this work spans an extensive period from 2001 to 2019, presenting a systematic assessment of how recurring extreme temperatures impact vulnerable populations. The research provides crucial insights that can aid policymakers, public health officials, and urban planners in designing targeted interventions to mitigate these preventable deaths.
The study’s national mortality data reveals a disconcerting upward trajectory in deaths from both extreme heat and cold, with significant state-wise variations. Heatstroke-related fatalities are notably higher, particularly among men of working age, a demographic likely exposed due to occupational hazards. The study’s lead author, Professor Pradeep Guin, explains that the predominance of male deaths may be attributed to outdoor laborers facing relentless heat exposure without adequate respite or resources, making them disproportionately vulnerable compared to women.
In contrast to global patterns where women typically demonstrate heightened sensitivity to heat extremes, India’s data reveals a stark disparity. During the analyzed period, deaths among males due to heatstroke were three to five times greater than those among females, and cold exposure fatalities were estimated to be four to seven times higher in men. This gender gap suggests occupational and sociocultural factors uniquely increasing men’s risk, emphasizing the unmet need for protective labor regulations and social safety nets for outdoor workers.
Of particular concern is the extreme vulnerability of the middle-aged demographic, specifically individuals aged 45 to 60, who exhibited the highest death rates from both heatstroke and cold exposure. This contrasts with expectations that the elderly are the most susceptible, highlighting the occupational and environmental stresses confronting the working population in challenging climatic conditions. The study advocates for urgent workplace reforms, including scheduled breaks during heat waves and provision of shaded, hydrated rest areas for occupations such as construction workers and gig economy laborers.
Geographical analysis delineates hotspots where extreme temperature mortality is concentrated. Andhra Pradesh, situated on India’s southeastern coast, leads the heat-related death toll, trailed by Uttar Pradesh and Punjab in the north. Meanwhile, cold exposure exerted its greatest fatal toll in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Bihar. Contrary to expectations, traditionally hottest or coldest regions report fewer extreme temperature deaths, likely due to inhabitants’ long-term adaptive mechanisms to climatic extremes. This finding underscores the disproportionate burden borne by populations in transitional climatic zones with inadequate adaptive infrastructure.
The paradoxical increase in deaths from cold exposure despite a general trend of rising average winter temperatures can be explained by spatial disparities in temperature shifts. Some non-traditionally cold states are now encountering unprecedented low temperatures, to which their populations are ill-prepared to respond. The resulting lack of preparedness and infrastructural deficits contribute to the rising mortality rates from cold exposure, challenging assumptions that global warming uniformly reduces cold-related deaths.
Data integrity and availability posed considerable challenges throughout the study. While country-level mortality trends were examined over 19 years, more granular state-level analysis was limited to a 14-year window due to inconsistent data records. The research team primarily utilized official statistics from the Indian Meteorological Department, National Crime Records Bureau, and other government sources. Despite these constraints, the study sets a new standard for data-driven climate-health research in India, providing a blueprint for more detailed sub-national and district-level investigations.
The study’s policy implications are profound. Professor Guin and collaborators call for enhanced social protection measures tailored to vulnerable groups, especially lower-income, daily-wage outdoor workers who face a compulsion to labor amid hazardous temperatures. They emphasize the need for state governments to develop comprehensive heat and cold action plans that include early warning systems, infrastructural adjustments such as shaded public spaces, and improved accessibility to drinking water and sanitation facilities. These interventions can significantly reduce avoidable mortality if implemented with urgency.
Awareness campaigns disseminated in local languages, coupled with expansion of night shelters and improvements in living conditions for homeless populations, form another pillar of recommended strategies. The research team highlights that proactive public health messaging and robust urban planning can substantially mitigate risks, particularly in urban centers where investments in health and social services have demonstrated some protective effect against temperature-induced deaths.
From a systemic perspective, the findings emphasize the critical intersection of climate change, public health, and socio-economic governance. As extreme weather events escalate in frequency and intensity globally, India’s experience epitomizes the compounded vulnerabilities faced by emerging economies. This study’s multifaceted approach, integrating meteorological data with mortality records and demographic analysis, provides a template for similar research in comparable low- and middle-income countries struggling with climate resilience.
The authors advocate for further multidisciplinary research that incorporates socio-economic variables, hospital records, and finer spatial scales to elucidate the complex dynamics underpinning temperature-related mortality. Greater data transparency and archival consistency across states are pivotal to enabling robust, evidence-based policymaking. The momentum generated by this study encourages expanded academic and governmental collaboration to confront the health ramifications of climate variability.
In conclusion, this seminal study paints an urgent picture of a public health crisis incrementally unfolding in one of the world’s most populous nations. The dual threats of heatstroke and cold exposure exact a heavy toll on Indian lives, disproportionately affecting working-age men in vulnerable states. Without immediate and concerted mitigation efforts, these temperature extremes — intensified by ongoing climate change — will continue to endanger human health and livelihoods. The call to action is clear: adaptive infrastructure, social safety nets, and data-informed policies must be prioritized to safeguard the millions at risk amid India’s climatic extremes.
Subject of Research: Mortality due to extreme temperature exposure in India, including heatstroke and cold exposure.
Article Title: Mortality due to heatstroke and exposure to cold: Evidence from India
News Publication Date: 2-May-2025
Web References:
10.1080/23328940.2025.2475420
Keywords: Heatstroke mortality, Cold exposure deaths, Extreme temperatures, India, Climate change health impacts, Temperature-related mortality, Vulnerable populations, Public health policy, Occupational health, Heat action plans, Cold action plans, Gender disparities in heat vulnerability
