Loneliness followed three trajectories over two years in longitudinal study of 508 Chinese vocational college students

A longitudinal study of 508 Chinese higher vocational college students found no significant overall change in loneliness across three measurement waves conducted at six-month intervals, but identified three distinct trajectories. The results, summarized in the study’s published abstract, show that loneliness patterns varied substantially among students, with differences observed in both initial levels and rates of change.

Researchers used latent growth modeling to assess the overall trend in loneliness and latent class growth analysis to identify heterogeneous developmental paths. The three trajectories were classified as high-loneliness stable, involving 28.9% of participants; moderate-loneliness increasing, involving 46.5%; and low-loneliness decreasing, involving 24.6%. The abstract reports good classification quality for these groups.

Baseline self-identity, self-esteem, gender and family climate were examined as possible predictors of trajectory membership using the R3STEP robust three-step method. Higher self-identity and self-esteem were significantly associated with a lower probability of membership in the high-risk trajectories. Gender was not a significant predictor. Family climate showed an unusually strong relationship with trajectory membership: nearly all students reporting a poor family climate were assigned to high-risk trajectories, while very few were placed in the low-decreasing group. Because the variable was nearly completely separated from trajectory membership, the researchers used Firth’s penalized likelihood regression; the result had a consistently positive directional association with persistent high loneliness. Parallel process growth models also found significant negative associations between changes in self-identity and loneliness and between changes in self-esteem and loneliness. These are model-based associations and predictors rather than evidence that changing the measured factors would directly cause a trajectory shift.

The available evidence is limited to the article’s abstract, which does not provide details about sampling, attrition, measurement scales, covariate adjustment, confidence intervals or model sensitivity analyses. The publisher also identifies the supplied version as an early-access article that remains subject to further edits and is scheduled to be replaced by the final Version of Record. Within the scope of the abstract, the study supports a heterogeneous account of loneliness among vocational college students over the two-year measurement period, with self-identity and self-esteem statistically associated with more favorable trajectory membership and poor family climate strongly associated with persistent high loneliness.

Subject of Research: Longitudinal patterns and predictors of loneliness among Chinese higher vocational college students

Article Title: Developmental trajectories, heterogeneity, and influencing factors of loneliness among Chinese higher vocational college students: a longitudinal study

Article References: Qian, L., Jin, F., & Hu, W. (2026). Developmental trajectories, heterogeneity, and influencing factors of loneliness among Chinese higher vocational college students: a longitudinal study. BMC Psychology. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40359-026-05725-6

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1186/s40359-026-05725-6

Keywords: loneliness, higher vocational education, Chinese students, longitudinal study, latent class growth analysis, self-esteem, self-identity, family climate, psychological resources, Developmental, trajectories, heterogeneity