A recent study published in Nature Food unveils a critical and complex challenge facing global food systems: the lack of national self-sufficiency across most countries in producing diverse, nutrient-rich foods essential for healthy, sustainable diets. Researchers from the University of Göttingen and the University of Edinburgh conducted a comprehensive analysis of 186 countries, examining their capacity to meet domestic food needs entirely through internal production. The findings reveal a global dependency on international food trade that leaves numerous nations remarkably vulnerable to disruptions caused by geopolitical turmoil, climatic events, or trade embargos.
The centerpiece of the study involved evaluating seven food groups outlined by the World Wildlife Fund’s Livewell diet, a set of nutritional guidelines designed to promote health and environmental sustainability. These groups encompass staples critical for balanced diets, including starchy staples, legumes, nuts and seeds, vegetables, fruits, meat, and dairy. Alarmingly, the analysis shows that only about one in seven countries can fulfill at least five out of these seven food groups from their own production. Many countries, especially across the Caribbean, West Africa, and Gulf regions, fall far short of meeting their nutritional needs internally, highlighting a pronounced fragility in global food security.
The research draws stark attention to Guyana, the only nation capable of full self-sufficiency in all seven food groups. This rare achievement positions Guyana as a unique case study in food production resilience. In contrast, some populous countries such as China and Vietnam nearly attain this level, achieving sufficiency in six groups, but they still fall short of complete independence. The wide disparities in self-sufficiency across geographic regions suggest that many governments may lack the requisite agricultural diversity or face environmental, infrastructural, or economic constraints limiting domestic food production.
One of the most striking findings concerns the inequalities in meat and dairy production. Whereas several European countries substantially overproduce these animal-sourced foods beyond mere domestic needs, many African nations experience profound deficits. The Democratic Republic of the Congo exemplifies this condition, producing only approximately 15% of its national meat requirements domestically. Such imbalances point to structural issues, including resource limitations, climatic challenges, and socioeconomic factors that inhibit livestock farming capacity in various regions.
Beyond animal-sourced products, the study identifies significant worldwide shortfalls in nutrient-dense plant protein sources. Less than half of the surveyed countries meet their domestic demands for legumes like beans and peas, or nuts and seeds, both pivotal for protein intake and sustainable agriculture. Even more concerning is that merely a quarter of nations reach sufficiency in vegetable production. The paucity of these foods in domestic supply chains raises serious concerns about long-term nutritional adequacy and resilience against external import shocks.
The study also explores the intricacies of international food trade dependencies among countries with insufficient self-sufficiency. It reveals that many nations with low domestic production rely heavily on imports from a small number of trading partners—often a single country—accounting for more than half of their food imports. Such bilateral dependencies amplify vulnerability, especially in contexts of political strain or disrupted supply chains. This is particularly problematic for smaller or island nations, whose limited production and concentrated import routes exacerbate risks to food security.
Central American and Caribbean countries, for example, largely depend on the United States for starchy staples like wheat and maize, highlighting a concentrated trade reliance that could imperil continuous supply if geopolitical or economic conditions shift. Similarly, certain European and Central Asian countries are dependent on singular trade partners for crucial protein-rich foods, including legumes, nuts, and seeds. These patterns of reliance underscore the fragile architecture underpinning global food security systems and point to the urgent need for diversification and resilience.
Jonas Stehl, PhD researcher at the University of Göttingen and first author of the study, emphasizes the dual-edge reality posed by international food trade. He acknowledges its essential role in supporting healthy and sustainable diets globally but cautions against excessive dependence on limited import sources. According to Stehl, building resilient food supply chains must become a global priority, minimizing risk exposure by enhancing domestic production capacities and diversifying trade partnerships to ensure uninterrupted access to critical food groups.
The relevance of this research extends beyond academic circles into real-world food policy and economic development strategies. National self-sufficiency in food production is intricately linked to public health outcomes, economic stability, and environmental sustainability. Shocks to food systems, whether from climate events, conflict, or trade disruptions, disproportionately affect countries with narrow production bases and trading dependencies. The study’s insights can inform policymakers striving to design adaptive, resilient agricultural frameworks that balance self-sufficiency with the benefits of global food exchange.
Moreover, the study’s systemic approach invites further investigation into specific barriers hindering domestic food production, including technological constraints, land use challenges, water availability, and workforce dynamics. Understanding these factors can help tailor interventions that enhance agricultural productivity sustainably, optimize resource allocation, and protect ecosystems vulnerable to intensive farming practices. It also urges global cooperation to ensure that trade networks foster equitable and robust supply chains capable of withstanding future crises.
Financially supported by the European Centre for Advanced Studies (ECAS), this research signifies a pivotal contribution toward comprehending formulating sustainable solutions at the nexus of nutrition, agriculture, and global trade. As the world grapples with climate change, political instability, and burgeoning population pressures, insights into national food production capacities and vulnerabilities offer critical guidance for stakeholders navigating the evolving global food landscape.
Ultimately, the study reveals that achieving healthy, sustainable diets worldwide hinges on the delicate balance between enhancing local food self-sufficiency and maintaining diversified, cooperative international trade systems. Countries and regions must acknowledge their unique production realities, invest in strategic agricultural development, and simultaneously cultivate resilient trade relationships. Failure to address these intertwined dynamics risks amplifying global food insecurity, with profound implications for public health, economic equity, and global stability.
Article Title: Gap between national food production and food-based dietary guidance highlights lack of national self-sufficiency
News Publication Date: 16-May-2025
Web References: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01173-4
References: Jonas Stehl et al., Nature Food 2025
Image Credits: Photo by Jonas Stehl, with data published in Nature Food 2025, DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01173-4
Keywords: Developmental economics, Food webs, Natural resources management, Sustainable development, Sustainability, Sustainable agriculture, Business, Commerce, Socioeconomics, Economics, Human health, Economic nationalism, Economic development, Low income countries
