Acute pancreatitis is rising in South Australia at a faster pace than expected, according to a new 16-year population study led by Flinders University and published in Pancreatology. The trend is now exceeding the global average and is shifting in ways that challenge long-held stereotypes about who is most at risk.
Traditionally framed as an alcohol-related illness affecting disadvantaged communities, acute pancreatitis is a sudden, severe inflammation of the pancreas. It can trigger intense abdominal pain, vomiting, prolonged hospital stays, and in serious cases, organ failure and death. Because there is no specific cure, identifying causes early—and preventing avoidable risks—has major clinical importance.
The researchers analyzed linked hospital and emergency department records from 2007 to 2022, identifying more than 15,000 people who required care for acute pancreatitis. Overall incidence increased from about 51 cases per 100,000 residents in 2007 to nearly 57 per 100,000 in 2022.
While men still develop the condition slightly more often, the steepest growth over time occurred among women. The study points to changing drivers: gallstones and metabolic risk factors appear to be increasingly prominent contributors, rather than alcohol alone.
Gallstones were identified as the leading cause in South Australia, with stronger representation among women and older adults. This aligns with known biological and lifestyle pathways linking gallstone formation to hormonal influences, aging, obesity, and metabolic health.
Alcohol-related pancreatitis accounted for a smaller share overall. The team observed only a brief spike during the COVID-19 period, followed by a return to pre-pandemic levels—suggesting that recent system-wide disruptions did not permanently alter the alcohol-associated pattern.
A particularly surprising finding was the acceleration of growth in the least disadvantaged areas. Although disadvantaged communities still bear the highest absolute burden, the fastest rise occurred in wealthier neighborhoods, indicating that risk is spreading beyond traditional socioeconomic boundaries.
The study also highlights clinical gaps. Many episodes were coded as having an unclear cause, despite international guidance aiming to identify an underlying trigger for every presentation. In a related Australian investigation, patients with “unclear cause” pancreatitis showed a higher likelihood of underlying pancreatic cancer than those with clearly established causes.
Overall, the authors emphasize that acute pancreatitis is neither rare nor fading. Instead, it is expanding and evolving, demanding updated prevention strategies and more targeted diagnostic follow-up—especially for people who are older or whose pancreatitis lacks an identified cause.
Subject of Research: People
Article Title: Epidemiological time trends in acute pancreatitis – A 16-year experience from South Australia
News Publication Date: 4-Jun-2026
Web References: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pan.2026.03.024
References: DOI: 10.1016/j.pan.2026.03.024
Image Credits: Flinders University
Keywords: acute pancreatitis, epidemiology, South Australia, gallstones, metabolic risk factors, women, socioeconomic trends, pancreatic cancer risk
