A groundbreaking international study has raised serious concerns about emerging climate policy frameworks that prioritize “temperature neutrality” or “no additional warming” targets, especially as proposed by countries with substantial agricultural methane emissions such as Ireland and New Zealand. Published in Environmental Research Letters, the research exposes how this novel approach effectively preserves methane emission privileges for high-emitting countries, potentially perpetuating global inequalities and undermining critical climate change mitigation efforts.
At its core, temperature neutrality represents a paradigm shift away from the established net zero greenhouse gas emissions target. Instead of aggressively reducing methane—a potent greenhouse gas primarily emitted through agricultural activities—this approach aims to stabilise the warming contribution of a country at its current level. Such a strategy drastically lowers the ambition required, allowing countries like Ireland to maintain disproportionately high levels of methane emissions while claiming compliance with international climate commitments.
The research consortium, led by the University of Galway and in partnership with the University of Melbourne, University College Cork, and Climate Resource, conducted an extensive data-driven analysis to reveal the pitfalls of temperature neutrality. Their findings show that this approach would lock in historical emission inequalities, granting countries with already high methane outputs the right to persist in these emissions while denying the same opportunity to lower-emitting, often poorer, nations seeking developmental progress through expanding their agricultural sectors.
One particularly alarming implication is that nations dependent on livestock-based agriculture for food security—typically in low-income and food-insecure regions—would face significant limits on their ability to increase emissions even as they strive to improve nutrition and food availability for vulnerable populations. Meanwhile, methane-exporting countries continue to supply affluent, food-secure nations, reinforcing entrenched inequities in the global food system.
The study further warns that the temperature neutrality framework underestimates the necessary scale of emission offsetting within livestock exporting countries. By effectively “grandfathering” historic methane emissions shares, these countries delay developing markets and innovations focused on addressing the climate and biodiversity crises associated with agricultural methane. This delay ultimately jeopardises international efforts to meet the goals encapsulated in the Paris Agreement, especially the crucial target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
Dr. Colm Duffy, the lead scientist on the project and an expert in agri-sustainability at the University of Galway, articulates the global risk: “If every country adopted a temperature neutrality target, we would seriously undermine the Paris Agreement’s commitment to keeping warming below 1.5°C, or even 2°C. Beyond its climatic consequences, this approach entrenches inequality by preserving the status quo for wealthy countries while imposing unfair burdens on poorer, food-insecure nations.”
The research team’s climate modelling scenarios considered multiple policy pathways, measuring their impact on global mean temperatures. Results consistently indicated that temperature neutrality ranked among the worst strategies in terms of exacerbating global warming trends. For instance, under this policy scenario, Ireland’s per capita methane emissions would remain approximately six times above the global average by 2050, highlighting the stark disproportionality embedded within this framework.
Dr. Róisín Moriarty, a research fellow at University College Cork’s Sustainability Institute, further underlined the implications for global ambition: “Adopting a ‘no additional warming’ approach signals a retreat from genuine commitments to the Paris Agreement. With little of the global carbon budget remaining to maintain the 1.5°C threshold, all nations must pursue the deepest and swiftest emissions reductions possible to preserve this critical temperature goal.”
Methane’s role in climate change is particularly significant due to its high global warming potential and relatively short atmospheric lifetime of around a decade. Professor Hannah Daly, a sustainable energy expert at UCC, points out: “Methane contributes to nearly 40% of the warming observed thus far. Cutting its emissions presents one of the most immediate strategies to limit climate change. For countries with disproportionately high methane contributions like Ireland, settling for temperature neutrality is insufficient and risks creating dangerous global precedents.”
The study also highlights the socio-economic dimensions of temperature neutrality. David Styles, associate professor in agri-sustainability at the University of Galway, warns: “Ireland’s agricultural sector holds immense potential to build a climate-neutral and biodiversity-rich future. Achieving this will require transformative change and robust climate targets. Temperature neutrality falls short, hampering the just transition necessary both domestically and internationally.”
The policy’s international ramifications extend beyond Ireland. New Zealand has also championed elements of temperature neutrality in its climate strategy, provoking significant debate and fomenting open letters from scientists and climate advocates opposed to these diluted targets. As Dr. Duffy notes, the underlying logic of granting emission rights based on historical shares risks perpetuating inequality and weakening global cooperative efforts to fight climate change.
This study—and its critical examination of emerging climate policies—emphasizes the urgency of adopting nuanced, equitable, and scientifically rigorous frameworks. Only through stringent methane reduction and clear, ambitious net zero goals for all countries can the intertwined challenges of climate mitigation, global food security, and sustainable development be adequately addressed.
The research was funded by the Department of Climate Energy and the Environment and is part of the broader FORESIGHT and CAPACITY climate modelling initiatives spearheaded by the University of Galway and its collaborators. The full study offers detailed methodology, results, and policy recommendations to guide future climate target-setting aligned with global equity and scientific realities.
Contact for further media information is available via the University of Galway press office at pressoffice@universityofgalway.ie.
Subject of Research: People
Article Title: National temperature neutrality, agricultural methane and climate policy: reinforcing inequality in the global food system
News Publication Date: 12-Aug-2025
Web References: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adf12d
Image Credits: Dr Colm Duffy: University of Galway
Keywords: temperature neutrality, methane emissions, climate policy, agricultural emissions, global warming, methane reduction, equity, Paris Agreement, food security, sustainable agriculture
