As the twenty-first century advances, the specter of increasing drought frequency and severity looms large over the Earth’s terrestrial ecosystems. Scientists predict that these changes will profoundly suppress terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), the total amount of carbon captured through photosynthesis. Understanding the complex controls on GPP under drought stress is critical for assessing carbon cycle feedbacks in a warming world, yet the intricate relationship between soil water availability and atmospheric demand remains elusive. A pioneering study by Liu and colleagues, recently published in Nature Plants, offers groundbreaking insights into how soil dryness—both below and above ground—regulates photosynthesis across temporal and spatial scales, challenging longstanding assumptions and shaping the way we view ecosystem responses to drought.
The debate at the heart of this research hinges on two main hydrometeorological factors: soil moisture, which represents the supply side by quantifying water availability in the root zone, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a measure of atmospheric water demand indicating how dry the air is. Both factors are known to influence the stomatal regulation in plants and thus GPP; however, their strong covariation and intertwined effects have complicated efforts to disentangle their relative contributions. Traditional observational approaches have struggled to isolate causal relationships due to confounding variables and feedback loops. Liu et al. break this scientific impasse by employing a sophisticated causality-guided explainable artificial intelligence (AI) framework, integrating in situ flux tower data and extensive satellite observations.
Their findings reveal a striking dominance of soil moisture as the key regulator of ecosystem water stress under conditions where soil water supply is insufficient. Temporally, analysis of flux tower data—high-frequency measurements of gas exchange at the ecosystem level—demonstrates that declines in GPP during drought episodes correspond more strongly with reductions in soil moisture than with increases in VPD. This suggests that when plants confront limited soil water, physiologically mediated constraints induced by soil moisture deficit take precedence in suppressing photosynthetic activity. This nuanced understanding emphasizes the critical importance of below-ground water availability in driving ecosystem function during dry spells.
On a spatial scale, Liu and colleagues extend their investigation by leveraging satellite-based sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), a globally available proxy for photosynthesis. Their global assessment of water-limited regions underscores the primacy of soil moisture in controlling variations in GPP. The spatial patterns of SIF reveal that terrestrial photosynthetic productivity is predominantly governed by soil water content where water supply constraints are present. This outcome challenges some prior studies that highlighted atmospheric dryness as a primary limitation, underscoring the need to contextualize ecosystem responses according to prevailing hydrological conditions.
Conversely, the study identifies scenarios where atmospheric water demand, represented by VPD, surpasses soil moisture in regulating photosynthesis. In regions or periods where soil water supply is ample, VPD plays a greater role in influencing GPP fluctuations. This is intuitive, as high VPD can lead to increased transpiration demand, inducing stomatal closure to conserve water and thus lowering photosynthetic rates. The spatial and temporal delineation of these two controls provides a more comprehensive framework than previously available, allowing scientists to predict ecosystem responses across gradients of moisture availability with greater precision.
Intriguingly, the authors also demonstrate that the relative importance of soil moisture and VPD is modulated by plant adaptations to long-term climatic aridity. In ecosystems that have evolved under chronically dry conditions, physiological and morphological traits appear to shift the balance of drought sensitivity, reflecting acclimatization strategies that affect how plants prioritize water use under stress. This indicates that understanding plant functional traits and evolutionary history is essential for forecasting how photosynthesis will respond to future drought regimes. The interplay among vegetation type, soil moisture availability, and atmospheric demand forms a complex feedback network pivotal for ecosystem resilience.
Beyond its ecological ramifications, the Liu et al. study has profound implications for climate modeling and carbon budget projections. Current earth system models often struggle to accurately simulate drought impacts on GPP, largely due to oversimplified representations of soil-plant-atmosphere interactions. This research provides empirical evidence and a methodological blueprint to refine model parameterizations, particularly by integrating causality-guided AI approaches capable of disentangling intertwined environmental drivers. Enhanced models are critical for predicting terrestrial carbon dynamics and feedbacks under scenarios of escalating drought frequency and severity.
The use of causality-guided explainable AI stands out as a methodological innovation in this study. Unlike traditional correlation-based analyses, this approach detects directional influences between variables, accounting for confounding factors and feedback effects. By applying this technique to rich datasets from flux towers and satellites, the researchers unpack the mechanistic underpinnings of drought-related photosynthetic declines. This kind of interpretable AI offers a promising pathway for complex environmental data analysis, bridging observational science and process understanding.
The study also highlights the value of long-term, high-resolution datasets such as flux tower measurements, which capture ecosystem-atmosphere exchanges at temporal scales relevant to plant physiology. Integrating these with satellite observations that provide spatially comprehensive assessments creates a powerful synergy, enabling cross-validation between ground truth and remote sensing. Such multifaceted data integration is indispensable for resolving the ambiguities that plague drought-photosynthesis research.
Collectively, the research presents a transformative view of terrestrial ecosystem drought responses, emphasizing that soil water supply emerges as the fundamental limiting factor in water-limited contexts, while atmospheric demand becomes dominant when soils are relatively moist. This conceptual framework advances our mechanistic understanding and helps move the field beyond simplistic binary debates. It suggests that managing ecosystems in a changing climate requires recognizing when and where soil moisture or VPD constraints prevail, which can inform conservation and land management strategies aimed at sustaining productivity.
Furthermore, the insights provided by Liu and colleagues are timely amidst global concerns about shifts in ecosystem functioning driven by climate change-induced drying. With more frequent and intense droughts predicted, ecosystems may experience a transition from energy limitation—where photosynthesis is primarily constrained by light or temperature—to water limitation, dominated by soil moisture deficits. Recognizing this potential shift is vital for anticipating changes in vegetation composition, carbon sequestration capacity, and feedback mechanisms influencing atmospheric CO2.
The study also underscores the importance of adapting monitoring networks and remote sensing technologies to capture soil moisture dynamics at finer spatial and temporal resolutions. Given soil moisture’s central role, improving the accuracy and coverage of soil moisture datasets, potentially through the integration of emerging satellite missions and ground observations, will be critical for future ecosystem assessments. Enhanced soil moisture data will enable more precise assessments of drought impacts on photosynthesis and productivity at ecosystem to global scales.
Additionally, the findings prompt a reevaluation of drought mitigation strategies in managed landscapes, such as forests and agricultural systems. Soil moisture management—including improved irrigation efficiency, soil amendment practices, and land cover management—could mitigate drought-induced productivity losses more effectively than approaches focused solely on atmospheric conditions. This practical implication could guide policy and management toward water conservation priorities grounded in soil hydrology.
In summary, Liu et al.’s study revolutionizes our understanding of how soil and atmospheric dryness jointly modulate terrestrial photosynthesis under drought stress. It sets a new standard by combining cutting-edge AI with multi-scale empirical data to resolve a long-standing ecological puzzle. The recognition that soil moisture prevails as the dominant stressor in water-limited contexts, while VPD assumes prominence in other conditions, equips scientists and resource managers to better navigate the complex realities of a drying world. As global aridity intensifies, such insights will be indispensable for safeguarding ecosystem productivity and the broader carbon cycle.
As humanity confronts the accelerating pace of climate change, studies like this chart the course toward more predictive, resilient ecological knowledge. The integration of innovative analytical frameworks, robust datasets, and ecological theory exemplifies the interdisciplinary advances needed to decode ecosystem responses to environmental extremes. Liu and colleagues’ work thus stands as a landmark contribution, illuminating the essential role soil dryness plays in shaping the future of terrestrial biosphere productivity in an era defined by drought.
Subject of Research: Terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis and drought stress; the relative influence of soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit on gross primary productivity.
Article Title: When and where soil dryness matters to ecosystem photosynthesis.
Article References:
Liu, J., Wang, Q., Zhan, W. et al. When and where soil dryness matters to ecosystem photosynthesis. Nat. Plants (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-025-02024-7
Image Credits: AI Generated
