India modeling maps climate-driven shifts in agro-voltaic suitability

Climate change could expand the climatically suitable area for agro-voltaic systems across India under moderate warming, but a high-emissions scenario would redistribute suitable zones, narrow their climatic tolerance ranges and shift their geographic centers. An ensemble spatial-modeling study assessed how these conditions may change in 2060 and 2080 across the country. The research, published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology , integrated bioclimatic variables from WorldClim and CMCC-BioClimInd with projections from three Earth System models: GFDL, HadGEM and IPSL.

The analysis considered RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, identified in the study as moderate- and high-emissions pathways, and evaluated both present and future climatic suitability. Model performance was reported as robust, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of at least 0.78 and a true skill score of at least 0.60. These metrics support the reported predictive performance of the suitability framework, although they do not establish the feasibility of individual projects.

Under RCP 4.5, the models projected a significant expansion of climatically suitable territory, particularly across central India. The newly suitable areas were expected to form a contiguous corridor, indicating that moderate warming could extend the climatic envelope for some agro-voltaic systems over a broader connected region. Its maps identify locations where climatic conditions are estimated to be suitable, not where all non-climatic requirements for deployment have been met.

The assessment under RCP 8.5 produced a more constrained picture. Suitable areas were projected to undergo spatial redistribution, while the geographic centers of suitability and the range of climatic conditions tolerated by agro-voltaic systems would change. The high-emissions results therefore do not simply extend the moderate-warming pattern.

They indicate that expansion of the total suitable area can coexist with reduced tolerance ranges and changing environmental limitations. The findings are also not uniform across the three models, which emphasized distinct environmental drivers, including the concentration of precipitation, thermal variability and interactions between moisture and temperature. Another important result was a change in the variables that most strongly controlled suitability.

Diurnal temperature variability was the leading influence in the earlier assessment, but temperature seasonality and precipitation extremes became more important in the projected future. This transition implies greater sensitivity to seasonal climatic fluctuations and monsoon variability in the modeled suitability patterns. Together, the results show why a national increase in suitable area should not be interpreted as a uniform reduction in environmental risk.

Overall, the study provides a spatially explicit, national-scale assessment of potential climate-driven suitability shifts in India’s agro-voltaic systems. Within those limits, the results support land-use planning that accounts for changing spatial patterns rather than assuming that future climatic suitability will remain stable.

Subject of Research: Climate-driven suitability and spatial shifts of agro-voltaic systems across India

Article Title: Environmental assessment of climate-driven suitability and spatial shifts of agro-voltaic systems in india using ensemble modeling

Article References: Mathur, M., & Poonia, S. (2026). Environmental assessment of climate-driven suitability and spatial shifts of agro-voltaic systems in india using ensemble modeling. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 157(11), Article 733. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06656-3

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s00704-026-06656-3

Keywords: agro-voltaic systems, India, climate change, ensemble modeling, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, bioclimatic suitability, Earth System models, spatial redistribution, land-use planning, Environmental, assessment