Human Development and Renewable Energy Drive Sustainability in New BRICS Economies, Study Finds

A new study published in the journal Discover Sustainability offers one of the most detailed statistical portraits yet of what actually pushes emerging economies toward sustainable development, and its findings challenge several assumptions that have shaped policy debates for decades. Researchers Serkan Şahin, Bahar Özbek and Sefa Özbek, all of Tarsus University in Turkey, examined eleven so-called New BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and South Africa—over the period from 2000 to 2022. Their central question was deceptively simple: which forces genuinely move these nations up the Sustainable Development Index, and which merely appear to? The answer, based on a battery of advanced panel econometric techniques, is that human development and renewable energy consumption are the reliable engines of sustainability, while globalization, contrary to much of the optimistic literature, exerts a statistically significant negative pressure.

The choice of countries is not incidental. The New BRICS grouping spans continents, political systems, resource endowments and stages of development, from hydrocarbon-rich monarchies of the Persian Gulf to densely populated agrarian economies undergoing rapid industrial transformation. What unites them is their weight in the global economy and their outsized role in determining whether international sustainability targets can be met at all. If these eleven economies cannot translate growth into sustainable outcomes, the argument runs, global progress stalls regardless of what happens in the OECD. That makes them an ideal laboratory for testing whether the drivers of sustainability identified in wealthy, institutionally mature countries also hold in contexts marked by weaker institutions, informal labor markets and uneven access to education and health care.

Methodologically, the study is notable for the care with which it handles the statistical quirks of panel data. The authors begin with the PANIC Fourier unit root test developed by Nazlioglu and colleagues, a procedure that allows for smooth structural breaks in the time series—wars, financial crises, pandemics, commodity price shocks—that would otherwise distort tests of statistical properties. Standard unit root tests assume any breaks are abrupt; the Fourier approach approximates gradual, evolving shifts with trigonometric functions, yielding more reliable conclusions about whether variables such as income, energy use or globalization indices are stationary. Establishing the integration properties of each series is a prerequisite for everything that follows, because spurious regression is the perennial hazard of macro-panel work.

With those foundations in place, the researchers turned to the panel cointegration test proposed by Westerlund and Edgerton, which asks whether the variables move together over the long run—whether, in other words, there is a genuine equilibrium relationship linking economic growth, renewable energy consumption, globalization, human development and the Sustainable Development Index, rather than a coincidental correlation. The test confirmed such a long-run relationship across the panel, licensing the next step: estimating the size and sign of each driver’s effect. For that, the authors employed the Augmented Mean Group estimator, a technique that allows each country to have its own slope coefficients while pooling information across the panel, and that remains robust to cross-sectional dependence—the fact that shocks in China or Saudi Arabia ripple into neighboring economies through trade, finance and energy markets.

The headline results are strikingly clear-cut. Human development, typically measured through the Human Development Index combining income, education and life expectancy, carries a statistically significant and positive effect on sustainable development. So does renewable energy consumption: the more of a country’s energy mix comes from renewable sources, the higher its Sustainable Development Index score tends to be. Both findings align with the theoretical expectation that sustainability is built on human capabilities and clean energy rather than on raw output alone. Investments in schooling, public health and productive employment, the results suggest, are not social expenditures competing with sustainability goals—they are among the most direct routes to achieving them.

The globalization result is the study’s most provocative contribution. Across the eleven-country panel, deeper global integration is associated with a statistically significant decline in the Sustainable Development Index. The authors are careful about interpretation: globalization itself is not inherently harmful, but in economies lacking inclusive institutions, resilient economic structures and capability-enhancing policies, integration can generate sustainability vulnerabilities. Export-oriented extractive industries, carbon-intensive manufacturing relocated from regulated economies, volatile capital flows and competition-driven regulatory loosening are among the mechanisms by which opening up can erode environmental and social gains. The finding complicates the long-standing assumption, common in earlier empirical work, that trade openness and financial integration are unambiguously good for development outcomes in emerging markets.

Equally notable is what the study implies about economic growth itself. While growth remains the variable most often celebrated in development policy, the results indicate that growth alone does not reliably deliver sustainability in the New BRICS context. A rising GDP can coexist with deteriorating environmental quality, widening inequality and stagnant human capabilities, particularly when the growth is concentrated in extractive or carbon-intensive sectors. The Sustainable Development Index, by design, penalizes development strategies that achieve human wellbeing at excessive ecological cost, and the panel evidence suggests that many of these economies have yet to decouple wellbeing gains from environmental degradation. The policy implication is a shift of emphasis: from maximizing output to investing deliberately in the human and energy foundations of durable progress.

The renewable energy finding carries particular urgency given the composition of the panel. Several of these countries are among the world’s largest fossil fuel producers and consumers, and several others are only beginning to build renewable capacity at scale. Yet the statistical evidence indicates that every expansion of renewable consumption is associated with measurable sustainability gains, controlling for the other drivers. For oil- and gas-dependent states such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and the United Arab Emirates, the result underscores the economic case for diversification into solar and other renewables—not merely as a hedge against future demand shifts, but as a present-day contributor to sustainable development outcomes. For India, Indonesia, Egypt and Ethiopia, it strengthens the argument that renewable infrastructure deserves priority in development finance.

The authors frame their conclusions as a call for human-centered and sustainability-oriented development strategies. Rather than relying solely on economic growth, policymakers in emerging economies should prioritize investments in human development, accelerate the renewable energy transition, and build the institutional mechanisms capable of converting global integration from a source of vulnerability into a channel for inclusive, sustainable outcomes. That last point is subtle but important: the study does not recommend retreat from the world economy, which is neither realistic nor necessarily desirable, but rather the domestic prerequisites—education, health, strong regulatory institutions, resilient industrial structures—that determine whether integration helps or harms. Globalization, on this reading, is an amplifier: it magnifies the strengths and the weaknesses of the societies it connects.

For the broader research community, the study demonstrates the value of methods that respect the messiness of real-world macro data—structural breaks, cross-country spillovers, parameter heterogeneity—rather than forcing emerging economies into statistical frameworks calibrated on advanced economies. And for the growing family of BRICS-plus nations, it provides an evidence base for a policy conversation that is already underway, as member states debate green industrial policy, development finance and the governance of energy transitions. The eleven economies studied here will account for a decisive share of global emissions and population in the coming decades. If the study’s central message is right, the fastest route to global sustainability may run not through aggregate growth targets, but through schools, hospitals, and solar farms.

Subject of Research: Drivers of sustainable development in New BRICS economies

Article Title: Human development renewable energy and globalization as drivers of sustainable development in new BRICS economies

Article References: Şahin, S., Özbek, B., & Özbek, S. (2026). Human development renewable energy and globalization as drivers of sustainable development in new BRICS economies. Discover Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-04524-8

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s43621-026-04524-8

Keywords: sustainable development, BRICS, human development index, renewable energy, globalization, economic growth, panel cointegration, Augmented Mean Group estimator, emerging economies, energy transition, Discover Sustainability, development policy