Bath Researchers Collaborate on NASA’s Earth System Explorers Mission

Two leading researchers from the University of Bath’s Centre for Climate Adaptation & Environment Research (CAER), Dr. Neil Hindley and Professor Corwin Wright, have been invited to join the prestigious science team propelling NASA’s latest satellite mission, STRIVE. This next-generation satellite will revolutionize atmospheric observations by delivering high-resolution, daily measurements of the Earth’s entire atmospheric column. Focused on temperature profiles, aerosol concentrations, and ozone levels, these detailed observations are poised to dramatically enhance our understanding of atmospheric dynamics while strengthening early warnings for extreme weather globally.

The STRIVE mission, an acronym for Stratosphere Troposphere Response using Infrared Vertically-resolved light Explorer, addresses one of the most critical challenges in climate and weather science: observing the elusive middle atmosphere in unprecedented detail. Extending from roughly 10 to 100 kilometers above Earth’s surface, this region profoundly influences both weather systems and long-term climate patterns. By capturing daily three-dimensional scans of this atmospheric layer, STRIVE’s data will usher in a new era of precision in forecasting models, potentially enabling predictions to extend from the usual weeks-long horizon to full seasonal scales.

At the heart of the University of Bath team’s contribution is an intensive focus on atmospheric waves—complex, energy-laden ripples traveling around the planet. These waves transfer momentum and energy vertically through different atmospheric layers, directing circulation patterns that influence daily weather and global climate variability. Understanding how these atmospheric waves propagate, break, and deposit momentum in the middle atmosphere remains one of meteorology’s grand challenges. Dr. Hindley and Professor Wright aim to decipher these processes more accurately using novel three-dimensional spectral analysis methods pioneered within Bath’s research group.

Dr. Hindley articulates the intricacies involved: “The atmosphere is composed of several tightly linked layers. The further the forecast extends into the future, the more critical it becomes to accurately simulate the entire vertical structure, especially the atmospheric regions above the troposphere. STRIVE’s innovative instrumentation will capture these wave phenomena in full 3-D for the first time, providing rich datasets to quantify their momentum transport and breaking throughout the middle atmosphere.” This leap in observational capability promises to fill critical gaps that have long hindered forecast accuracy, particularly in extreme weather event prediction.

The middle atmosphere holds a precarious balance of dynamic and chemical processes shaped by interactions between vertically traveling waves and ambient circulation. STRIVE’s infrared remote sensing technology will deliver vertically resolved profiles of temperature and key chemical constituents, shedding light on the coupling mechanisms across atmospheric layers. These insights will enhance numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models, improving their physical realism regarding wave-mean flow interactions and stratospheric-tropospheric exchange processes.

Prior to mission launch, the Bath team engaged in sophisticated pre-launch testing, employing ultra-high-resolution atmospheric simulations. By virtually flying a synthetic satellite through these model-generated atmospheres, the team extracted synthetic temperature fields and simulated STRIVE’s expected data output. This allowed the development and refinement of their 3D spectral analysis algorithms well ahead of real-world measurements, ensuring readiness to extract maximal scientific insight from STRIVE once operational.

Beyond weather and climate forecasting, STRIVE’s findings will have imperative applications in space situational awareness. The mission’s capacity to characterize the dynamic behavior of the upper atmosphere—the tenuous region where most satellites orbit—will improve models predicting atmospheric drag fluctuations. Sudden drag increases have historically caused premature orbital decay events, including the unexpected deorbiting of entire satellite constellations shortly after launch. By elucidating atmospheric drivers of these phenomena, STRIVE data will contribute to safer, more reliable satellite mission operations through advanced drag forecasting.

Spearheading the STRIVE mission is Professor Lyatt Jaeglé of the University of Washington, whose team emphasizes the mission’s goal to illuminate the ‘middle atmosphere blind spot’ that has long confounded Earth system scientists. The daily, high-resolution data from STRIVE will also enable near-real-time tracking of pollution plumes and wildfire smoke, while monitoring ozone layer recovery dynamics with unparalleled precision. Professor Jaeglé has hailed the collaboration with the University of Bath scientists as invaluable: “Their expertise in gravity wave processes and 3D spectral analysis methodologies will be instrumental to unlocking the mission’s full potential.”

Currently in the development phase, STRIVE represents one of two cutting-edge Earth System Explorers selected by NASA to elevate atmospheric science capabilities. Both missions are undergoing rigorous evaluations and, pending final review slated for 2027, are targeted for launch around 2030. The data streams produced by STRIVE promise to be transformative for meteorologists, climate scientists, space agencies, and decision-makers managing disaster preparedness and environmental policies worldwide.

In sum, the STRIVE mission is set to redefine our grasp of the middle atmosphere by capturing detailed, vertically resolved observations at a cadence never before achieved. The advanced analyses led by Bath researchers will provide critical breakthroughs in understanding how gravity waves and related phenomena drive atmospheric processes influencing weather and climate extremes. This leap in observational and analytical capability marks a significant stride towards extending predictive horizons and safeguarding vulnerable populations against the growing threats posed by environmental variability.

This collaboration underscores the essential role of UK-based scientific expertise in global Earth system missions, highlighting the University of Bath’s leadership in pioneering atmospheric research innovations. As we approach an era where climate resilience and timely disaster response are paramount, the insights derived from STRIVE will power next-generation forecasting tools and space weather models essential for sustaining the safety and well-being of people and infrastructure worldwide.