In a comprehensive nationwide study published in the prestigious journal Cancer Biology & Medicine, researchers have unveiled significant trends and future projections concerning cancer mortality in China from 2013 through 2021, with forecasts extending to 2030. The analysis, which harnessed an extensive dataset comprising 2.37 billion person-years from the China Causes of Death Surveillance System, reveals a complex landscape of declining age-standardized mortality rates alongside a worrying increase in absolute cancer deaths—a paradox largely driven by demographic shifts and unequal access to healthcare across urban and rural regions.
Cancer mortality rates, adjusted for age, have demonstrated steady declines each year at a rate of approximately 2.3%. These promising improvements are largely attributable to successful interventions targeting cancers such as esophageal, stomach, and liver malignancies. The respective annual reductions for these cancer types are notable, with esophageal cancer mortality decreasing by 4.8%, stomach cancer by 4.5%, and liver cancer by 2.7%. Such gains reflect the effectiveness of nationwide screening programs and enhanced risk factor control measures, including efforts to curb tobacco use and improve hepatitis B vaccination coverage, which have proven instrumental in disease mitigation strategies.
Despite these encouraging trends, the absolute number of cancer mortalities continues to rise, with projections estimating as many as 2.4 million cancer-related deaths in China by 2030. This increase is primarily fueled by the rapid aging of the nation’s population, a demographic phenomenon that naturally elevates cancer incidence given the disease’s association with advancing age. The researchers employed rigorous age–period–cohort modeling to untangle these complex temporal dynamics, revealing that aging alone accounts for 20% to 50% of the increments observed in various cancer mortalities.
This demographic pressure is compounded by stark disparities between urban and rural healthcare access. Urban areas have achieved more pronounced decreases in mortality rates, at a pace of 3.0% annually, compared to a slower 2.0% annual decline observed in rural settings. Such discrepancies highlight persistent systemic challenges, including limited medical infrastructure, lower screening coverage, and reduced availability of early detection technologies in less developed regions. These disparities underscore the need for tailored interventions to bridge the urban-rural divide in cancer prevention and treatment.
The study further underscores evolving patterns in cancer epidemiology. While mortality rates for traditionally high-burden cancers are decreasing, others are rising. Pancreatic and prostate cancers, in particular, showed increased mortality rates, at 2.0% and 3.4% per annum, respectively. This shift signals emerging public health challenges and may correlate with lifestyle changes, environmental exposures, and genetic predispositions, necessitating intensified research focus and adaptation of screening strategies to encompass these growing threats.
By 2030, lung cancer is projected to remain the leading cause of cancer-related deaths across genders, retaining its position as a major public health challenge. Following lung cancer, mortality rates for men are expected to be highest for liver, colorectal, gastric, and esophageal cancers. In women, colorectal cancer will rank second, succeeded by liver, gastric, and breast cancers. These projections reflect both sustained risk factors and demographic shifts, reinforcing the urgency of implementing comprehensive prevention strategies across different cancer types.
The research team, led by Dr. Xiaoqiu Dai of the National Cancer Center, emphasized the dual imperatives of advancing early detection and ensuring equitable healthcare access. “China’s progress in cancer mortality reduction is commendable, yet the growing elderly population means that absolute cancer deaths will continue to climb,” Dr. Dai remarked. The study calls for integrating cancer control within broader public health frameworks and aging policies, focusing especially on underserved rural populations to ensure prevention and treatment reach all demographic sectors.
Strategically, the findings advocate for enhanced screening programs tailored to high-risk populations, expanded vaccination coverage for oncogenic viruses such as HPV and HBV, and sustained public health campaigns promoting healthier lifestyles to counteract smoking, alcohol consumption, and obesity. These multifaceted approaches will be critical in maintaining momentum against cancer mortality and mitigating future disease burdens.
Environmental and behavioral factors play a pivotal role in the nation’s cancer landscape. Rapid socio-economic development has altered exposure patterns to carcinogens, with urbanization and industrialization influencing environmental risks. Moreover, changes in lifestyle habits have intensified processes that predispose populations to malignancies, necessitating targeted interventions addressing these upstream determinants of health.
The study’s implications extend beyond China’s borders, offering a valuable framework for other developing countries grappling with similar demographic and epidemiologic transitions. Coordinated efforts addressing cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment accessibility provide a replicable model to manage the dual challenges posed by aging populations and health inequities worldwide.
In conclusion, while China has achieved measurable progress in reducing age-standardized cancer mortality rates, the country faces a formidable future challenge as population aging and rural disparities counterbalance these gains. This comprehensive analysis not only delineates current trends but also informs critical policy decisions, emphasizing the importance of equitable healthcare expansion, improved screening accessibility, and sustained public health interventions to curb the rising tide of cancer mortality in the decades to come.
Subject of Research:
Not applicable
Article Title:
Cancer mortality trends in China from 2013–2021 and projections to 2030
News Publication Date:
30-Jul-2025
References:
DOI: 10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2025.0158
Image Credits:
Credit: Cancer Biology & Medicine
Keywords:
Cancer
