U-shaped governance–renewable energy association found across 15 RCEP countries

Renewable energy consumption had a U-shaped relationship with governance quality across 15 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership countries between 2002 and 2022, according to a panel-data study. Consumption initially declined as governance improved, but rose after governance quality surpassed a critical threshold identified in the analysis.

Researchers examined whether the relationship between governance and renewable energy consumption was non-linear rather than assuming that improvements in governance would always produce proportional increases in renewable energy use. The study focused on the 15 RCEP countries, a group described in the research as the world’s largest trade bloc and as having substantial differences in institutional quality and energy structures.

The analysis included carbon dioxide and methane emissions, foreign direct investment and trade openness alongside governance quality. Panel cointegration tests indicated a stable long-run relationship among the variables. The researchers estimated the long-run effects using pooled ordinary least squares, fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares. Canonical Cointegrating Regression and a pooled mean group estimator were used as robustness checks.

Long-run estimates showed negative associations between both carbon dioxide emissions and methane emissions and renewable energy consumption. Foreign direct investment had a positive estimated relationship with renewable energy consumption, but the effect was not statistically significant. Trade openness had a significant negative association with renewable energy consumption. These results describe estimated relationships in the panel model and do not, by themselves, establish that changes in emissions, investment or trade caused changes in renewable energy use.

The central governance result was also non-linear. At lower levels of governance quality, improvement was associated with declining renewable energy consumption; beyond the model’s turning point, stronger governance was associated with higher consumption. The authors interpret the findings as evidence that strengthening institutional quality beyond the identified threshold, together with targeted emission-reduction policies, could support greater renewable energy deployment across the RCEP countries. The results indicate an association and a policy-relevant model pattern rather than a direct experimental test of interventions.

Because the study covers 15 countries over two decades, its findings are bounded to the selected RCEP panel and the 2002–2022 period. They do not automatically establish the same relationship in other regions, during later years or within every individual country. Nevertheless, the analysis adds dedicated empirical attention to a large and institutionally diverse trade bloc, where the transition from fossil-fuel-based energy systems to renewable alternatives has been described as slow and uneven. The study’s broader implication is that governance quality may relate to renewable energy consumption in a more complex, threshold-dependent way than a simple linear model would capture.

Subject of Research: Panel analysis of governance, emissions, trade openness and renewable energy consumption in 15 RCEP countries from 2002 to 2022.

Article Title: The impact of governance and carbon emissions on renewable energy consumption in regional comprehensive economic partnership countries

Article References: Fahima, F. N. U., Sadekin, M. N., Ahmed, M. T., & Akter, L. (2026). The impact of governance and carbon emissions on renewable energy consumption in regional comprehensive economic partnership countries. Discover Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-04759-5

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s43621-026-04759-5

Keywords: renewable energy, governance quality, RCEP countries, carbon dioxide, methane emissions, trade openness, foreign direct investment, panel data, cointegration, energy transition, impact, governance