Climate model ensembles get a Bayesian makeover for sharper projections
A new Earth System Dynamics study formulates two rival schemes for weighting climate model ensembles in Bayesian terms and shows ...
Tag: Earth system dynamics
Limited nuclear war could trigger surprising first-year land warming before nuclear winter sets in
A new climate model study finds that a limited US-Russia nuclear exchange injecting 12 to 24 teragrams of black carbon ...
Millions of rescued handwritten records reveal Congo Basin warming
Scientists digitized nearly 10,000 handwritten weather sheets from Congolese archives, producing over one million daily observations that reveal clear warming ...
Rescued handwritten weather logs reveal Congo Basin hot days doubled since the 1960s
Digitized handwritten weather archives from the Democratic Republic of the Congo show that hot days in the Congo Basin nearly ...
AI Reveals Heatwaves Across Europe Are Entering Uncharted Atmospheric Territory
An unsupervised machine learning analysis of ERA5 reanalysis data shows that Western European heatwaves are undergoing structural shifts in their ...
Climate models reveal 73 nonlinear surprises arriving sooner than expected
An automated scan of 54 CMIP6 climate models catalogues 73 strong nonlinear surprises, including Arctic sea-ice loss, North Atlantic mixed-layer ...
Same Target Temperatures, Two Very Different Climates: Long Geoengineering Simulations Reveal Hidden Divergence
New 150-year climate model experiments show that two stratospheric aerosol injection strategies designed to meet identical temperature targets can produce ...
What Is Climate? Chaos Theory Offers a Radical New Definition
Two physicists argue that climate can only be rigorously defined through the convergence of chaotic ensembles onto a unique probability ...
New 1-Kilometer Global Model Maps the Past and Future of the World’s Groundwater
Researchers have produced the first monthly global groundwater simulations at roughly one-kilometer resolution, revealing historical depletion hotspots and projecting water ...
Blending Observations With Decadal Forecasts Sharpens Europe’s Near-Term Climate Outlook
A new two-stage method that filters climate model ensembles using both observations and initialized decadal predictions significantly narrows the uncertainty ...
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Mothers who receive childcare support from maternal grandparents show more parental warmth, finds NTU Singapore study
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University of Seville Breaks 120-Year-Old Mystery, Revises a Key Einstein Concept
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Bee body mass, pathogens and local climate influence heat tolerance
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Researchers record first-ever images and data of a shark experiencing a boat strike
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Groundbreaking Clinical Trial Reveals Lubiprostone Enhances Kidney Function
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