A groundbreaking new study from the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute (ECI) reveals profound implications for global agricultural labor markets driven by shifts toward healthier and more sustainable diets. Published in The Lancet Planetary Health, this comprehensive modeling study presents the first detailed country-level assessment of how alternative dietary patterns could reshape employment needs across the agricultural sector in 179 countries by 2030. The analysis focuses on a range of diet scenarios, including baseline diets, flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian, and vegan profiles, unveiling varied labor demand consequences driven primarily by changes in livestock production and horticulture.
The researchers integrated highly detailed datasets on labor requirements for primary agricultural production with robust biophysical food-system models to generate estimates of annual working units (AWU) needed for the cultivation, raising, and harvesting of 20 different food groups at global, regional, and national levels. The findings reveal that transitioning from meat-heavy diets to more plant-centric alternatives could reduce global agricultural labor inputs by a remarkable 5 to 28 percent, which translates into the potential displacement of between 18 million and 106 million full-time agricultural jobs worldwide by 2030.
Central to these shifts is the declining need for labor in livestock production, historically one of the most labor-intensive components of agriculture. Animal husbandry requires substantial daily care, feeding, and management, often employing larger seasonal and permanent workforces. The projected dietary transformations anticipate a contraction in livestock demands, driving a significant downsizing of labor needs in this subsector. This realignment echoes broader sustainable food system goals to reduce animal product consumption due to environmental and health concerns, but it underscores the socio-economic challenges inherent in transitioning agricultural workforces.
Conversely, the demand for labor in horticulture—encompassing fruits, vegetables, legumes, and nuts—is expected to rise sharply, with an estimated additional 18 to 56 million workers needed globally to meet increased consumption of plant-based foods. Unlike mechanized and consolidated livestock farming systems, horticulture tends to be more labor-intensive, relying heavily on manual tasks such as planting, pruning, and harvesting. This creates a complex dynamic, where labor displaced from animal agriculture may find new opportunities in plant cultivation, but the geographic distributions and skill requirements may not fully align, raising critical issues for workforce mobility and adaptation.
Economic implications extend beyond mere labor numbers. The global rebalancing of food production could yield annual reductions in agricultural labor costs ranging from USD 290 billion to USD 995 billion (adjusted for purchasing power parity), representing 0.2 to 0.6 percent of global GDP. These cost savings denote efficiency gains but also highlight the necessity of nuanced economic policy interventions to manage potentially disruptive impacts in rural economies, especially within regions heavily reliant on livestock agriculture.
Regional disparities in labor demand changes are a focal point of the analysis. High-income countries, with highly mechanized farming systems, may experience different workforce transformations compared to low- and middle-income countries where agriculture remains predominantly labor-intensive. Notably, livestock-heavy agricultural economies—common in many low-income nations—face substantial reductions in labor needs, while others, especially lower-income countries, could witness a surge in employment opportunities within horticulture sectors. This regional heterogeneity necessitates tailored, context-sensitive policy frameworks to safeguard livelihoods and encourage equitable transitions.
The authors emphasize the urgent need for strategic policy interventions to ensure the agricultural workforce can transition fairly and effectively. Investments in retraining programs, labor redeployment initiatives, and enhanced support for horticultural production infrastructure will be critical to help displaced workers adapt and capitalize on emerging employment opportunities. Without such proactive planning, the risk of exacerbating rural poverty, social inequities, and labor market disruptions remains substantial.
From a methodological standpoint, the study’s integration of labor input data with detailed global food production models represents a pioneering approach in evaluating the socioeconomic dimensions of dietary change. By capturing labor requirements at the scale of 20 distinct food groups and examining production systems across multiple income and regional classifications, the analysis offers a granular understanding of how consumption shifts translate into on-the-ground workforce implications. Such comprehensive modeling provides valuable insights for governments, industry stakeholders, and international bodies aiming to navigate the intertwined challenges of sustainability, nutrition, and economic resilience.
Importantly, the study clarifies that labor cost estimates are illustrative and abstract from broader economic feedback mechanisms, such as subsequent wage changes or food price adjustments. Furthermore, the scope is confined to primary agricultural production, excluding employment associated with food processing, distribution, and retail sectors. These caveats suggest that the full labor market impact of dietary transitions extends beyond this analysis, warranting further exploration into post-farm-gate employment dynamics and wider socioeconomic consequences.
Leading the research, Dr. Marco Springmann highlights the multidimensional impacts of dietary transformations: “Changing diets are not just about improving human health and reducing environmental footprints; they also fundamentally reshape the livelihoods of millions working in agriculture. Our results underscore the importance of cohesive strategies that facilitate smooth transitions both out of and into different agricultural employment pathways.” Co-authors include Professors Michael Obersteiner and Sir Charles Godfray, alongside Dr. Yiorgos Vittis, whose combined expertise spans environmental economics, agricultural modeling, and sustainability science.
This landmark inquiry aligns with a growing body of evidence advocating for systemic food system reforms to meet global health and climate goals. The insights regarding labor requirements add a vital socio-economic dimension to these discussions, reinforcing that sustainable dietary change entails complex trade-offs and opportunities across multiple sectors. Effective policy and political commitment will be indispensable to orchestrate transitions that optimize environmental benefits while supporting workforce stability and rural livelihoods worldwide.
The research not only contributes to academic understanding but also offers actionable intelligence for policymakers at national and international levels. As countries formulate strategies to meet sustainability commitments and nutritional targets, this assessment serves as a guide to anticipate workforce shifts and design inclusive interventions. Ultimately, transitioning global diets toward sustainability is not solely a scientific or nutritional challenge, but also an economic and social journey demanding integrated approaches and vigilant governance.
Subject of Research: People
Article Title: Labour requirements for healthy and sustainable diets at global, regional, and national levels: a modelling study
News Publication Date: 3-Nov-2025
Web References: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101342
References: Labour requirements for healthy and sustainable diets at global, regional, and national levels: a modelling study, The Lancet Planetary Health
Image Credits: © 2025 Yiorgos Vittis, Michael Obersteiner, H Charles J Godfray, Marco Springmann. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
Keywords: Agricultural policy, Climate policy, Farming, Sustainable agriculture, Food production, Environmental issues, Conventional farming, Food policy, Food resources
