A groundbreaking study from the University of Cambridge has unveiled a novel methodology for quantifying the impact of global food production on biodiversity, particularly the extinction risks faced by vertebrate species worldwide. The research introduces a sophisticated approach that integrates land use productivity with species extinction probabilities, enabling an unprecedented precision in assessing how various agricultural commodities contribute differentially to global biodiversity loss. This method marks a significant advance in environmental science, providing actionable data that could reshape agricultural policies and consumer behaviors across the globe.
At the heart of this innovative metric lies the careful consideration of land productivity—essentially, the ecological capacity of the land to produce food—and its relationship to habitat conversion. By evaluating each kilogram of a specific food commodity annually, researchers can now determine a ‘per kilogram extinction impact,’ highlighting the stark contrasts in biodiversity loss induced by different types of food production. This granular level of analysis reveals disparities spanning orders of magnitude, underscoring the critical importance of where and what food is produced in gauging its global environmental footprint.
One of the most alarming revelations of this study is the prediction that, without significant shifts in global agricultural land use, between 700 and 1,100 vertebrate species are likely to face extinction over the next century. This estimate is conservative, as it excludes considerations of future population growth, which would likely exacerbate land-use pressures and amplify species loss. The sheer scale of potential extinctions highlights an urgent need for policy interventions aimed at curbing habitat destruction driven by food production worldwide.
The research further elaborates on the geographical disparities in food-related biodiversity impact. Tropical regions, renowned for their extraordinary species richness, bear a disproportionate burden. Commodities such as coffee, cocoa, tea, and bananas—staples in many diets and predominantly cultivated in tropical zones—exert a far greater threat on species survival than comparable food items produced in temperate regions. This spatial dimension of the extinction risk underscores the critical nexus between food systems and biodiversity hotspots, where habitat alterations have outsized ecological consequences.
Among the range of foods assessed, ruminant meats—specifically beef and lamb—emerged as the most devastating for biodiversity conservation. The exacerbation of extinction risk varies with the source of production; for instance, beef imported into the United Kingdom from countries like Australia and New Zealand carries an extinction risk thirty to forty times greater than beef sourced domestically. Such findings illuminate the complex global trade dynamics that amplify environmental impacts far from the point of consumption and prompt reconsideration of trade policies in the context of biodiversity preservation.
Land-use change remains the principal driver behind these extinction risks. Conversion of natural habitats to agricultural land not only diminishes the spatial extent available for wildlife but also fragments ecosystems, impairing species’ viability and resilience. Habitats critical for many terrestrial vertebrates are being eroded at an unprecedented pace, primarily to support human dietary demand. This highlights a pressing conflict between food security and biodiversity conservation, necessitating integrative solutions that recognize and balance these competing priorities.
The study’s lead author, Dr. Thomas Ball from the University of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology, emphasizes the massive land requirement for cattle rearing relative to plant-based protein sources. He points out that producing one kilogram of beef necessitates vast tracts of land, significantly encroaching on natural habitats, which in turn escalates extinction risks for numerous species. Conversely, legumes such as beans and lentils require markedly less land and are found to be approximately 150 times less detrimental to biodiversity, making a compelling case for dietary shifts towards plant-based proteins.
The implications of adopting vegetarian diets on a wide scale are profound. Dr. Ball’s findings suggest that, should the UK population shift overnight to vegetarianism, the country’s biodiversity impact attributable to food could be halved. This projection underscores the transformative potential that dietary choices hold for biodiversity conservation, reinforcing calls for public awareness campaigns and food policy reforms aimed at reducing meat consumption.
Embedding this approach into practical policy tools, the researchers utilized the LIFE (Land-cover change Impacts on Future Extinctions) metric—developed by the University of Cambridge—to translate land-cover changes into quantifiable extinction risks for over 30,000 terrestrial vertebrate species. This comprehensive metric has now been incorporated into the UK Government’s official toolkit to assess the global environmental consequences of its agricultural commodity consumption, setting a precedent for evidence-based policymaking augmenting the country’s biodiversity commitments.
The multidisciplinary collaboration behind this study involves experts from the University of Cambridge, the Stockholm Environment Institute, and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC). By amalgamating national consumption data and detailed provenance information on 140 distinct food types with the LIFE metric, the team has forged a powerful analytical platform for simulating and quantifying potential biodiversity outcomes under varying trade and agricultural policy scenarios—an unprecedented capability in global environmental governance.
Importantly, the study cautions against myopic policy designs that focus solely on domestic agricultural practices without accounting for offshored environmental costs embedded in imported food products. As Dr. Ball articulates, UK policies incentivizing land set-asides for nature conservation, if accompanied by increased imports from biodiverse regions, may inadvertently exacerbate global extinction risks. This underscores the necessity for integrated, globally-aware agricultural policies that factor in international supply chain impacts to genuinely mitigate biodiversity loss.
The published findings, appearing in the esteemed journal Nature Food, set a new benchmark for linking food systems with species extinction metrics. They deliver critical insights into the ecological trade-offs inherent in contemporary food production and consumption patterns, offering a potent scientific basis for reimagining sustainable diets and trade policies that align human nutritional needs with the imperative to safeguard the planet’s biodiversity for future generations.
Subject of Research: Impact of global food production on vertebrate species extinction risks
Article Title: Food impacts on species extinction risks can vary by three orders of magnitude
News Publication Date: 9-Sep-2025
Web References:
References:
Ball, T., Green, J., et al. (2025). Food impacts on species extinction risks can vary by three orders of magnitude. Nature Food. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01224-w
Image Credits: University of Cambridge
Keywords: biodiversity loss, species extinction risk, global food production, land use change, agricultural commodities, ruminant meat, tropical agriculture, LIFE metric, UK food import impact, sustainable diets, habitat destruction, environmental policy
