Meta-analysis estimates 6.2% infant HIV prevalence in Ethiopia

A systematic review and meta-analysis estimated that 6.2% of infants born to HIV-positive mothers in Ethiopia had HIV, based on 31 studies encompassing 15,251 infants. The pooled estimate had a 95% confidence interval of 4.7% to 7.9%, but variation among studies was substantial: heterogeneity reached 93.7% with a p-value below 0.001. The analysis was published in BMC Infectious Diseases as an accepted article on October 20, 2026.

Researchers searched Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, Embase and Google Scholar between June and September 2025 for studies published from October 2011 onward that reported HIV prevalence among infants born to HIV-positive mothers in Ethiopia. Eligible studies were included under PRISMA guidelines, and data were extracted using a standardized form. Study quality was assessed with the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool. Prevalence was pooled in Stata version 17 using a random-effects model with the DerSimonian and Laird estimator, while heterogeneity was evaluated with Higgins’ I² statistic.

When studies were grouped by publication period, pooled prevalence estimates were lower in the more recent groups. The estimate was 9.6% for studies published from 2011 to 2015, 6.4% for those published from 2016 to 2020 and 4.6% for those published from 2021 to 2024. This sequence describes differences among the included evidence groups rather than a direct longitudinal measurement in a single population. The high between-study heterogeneity and the grouping of studies by publication period limit how confidently the pattern can be interpreted as change over time.

Regional pooled estimates also varied, ranging from 2.3% in the combined Tigray and Gambella estimate to 7.6% in Oromia. Individual study estimates varied substantially within regions. The researchers performed subgroup and sensitivity analyses to explore sources of heterogeneity and evaluated possible small-study effects with funnel plots, Egger’s test and nonparametric trim-and-fill analysis. The applied tests found no statistically significant evidence of a small-study effect after trim-and-fill analysis, with reported p-values above 0.05. That finding did not resolve the high heterogeneity across the underlying studies.

The authors said the variation may indicate possible differences in the implementation and coverage of measures that prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission and in access to maternal and infant HIV services. They identified continued strengthening of antenatal HIV care, skilled institutional delivery, maternal antiretroviral therapy adherence, timely infant prophylaxis, early infant diagnosis and postnatal follow-up as measures that may contribute to further reductions. The review itself was designed to estimate prevalence and describe temporal and regional variation, rather than evaluate the efficacy of any single intervention.

Subject of Research: Pooled HIV prevalence among Ethiopian infants born to HIV-positive mothers

Article Title: Pooled prevalence and temporal variations of infant HIV infection in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Article References: Gizachew, M., & Deress, T. (2026). Pooled prevalence and temporal variations of infant HIV infection in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-026-14673-w

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1186/s12879-026-14673-w

Keywords: infant HIV, Ethiopia, mother-to-child transmission, systematic review, meta-analysis, pooled prevalence, regional variation, antiretroviral therapy, early infant diagnosis, prevention programs, Pooled, prevalence