For more than two decades, criminologist Charis E. Kubrin has examined one of the most politically charged questions in the United States: whether immigration increases crime. A new nationwide study led by Kubrin, a Chancellor’s Professor of Criminology, Law and Society at the University of California, Irvine, suggests that unauthorized immigration does not drive crime in American neighborhoods. In fact, communities where the share of undocumented residents increased experienced larger declines in property crime, while violent crime showed no significant change.
Published in the Journal of Urban Affairs, the study is the first to investigate the relationship between unauthorized immigration and crime at the neighborhood level across such a large national sample. The researchers analyzed crime trends in approximately 11,500 neighborhoods, representing about 46 million residents in diverse U.S. cities, between 2010 and 2018. By focusing on neighborhoods rather than states or metropolitan areas, the study addresses a question often raised in public debates: what happens in the specific communities where undocumented residents live?
The results challenge the widespread assumption that a growing undocumented population produces more crime. Neighborhoods with increasing shares of unauthorized immigrants saw significant reductions in property crime, including offenses such as burglary and theft. Violent crime overall did not significantly increase, and aggravated assaults declined substantially. The findings are consistent with a large body of previous research indicating that immigration, including unauthorized immigration, is not generally associated with higher crime rates.
To estimate the number of undocumented residents in individual neighborhoods, the research team used restricted individual-level Census data accessed through a federal Research Data Center. The researchers then applied an imputation procedure similar to methods used by the Department of Homeland Security. Because the Census does not directly identify every person’s immigration status, statistical techniques are required to estimate the unauthorized population. These methods use demographic and administrative characteristics associated with undocumented status, producing population estimates that can be compared across places and over time.
Derek Christopher of Stanford University led the technical development of this approach for the study. Christopher, who earned his economics Ph.D. from UC Irvine in 2022, explained that versions of the method have been used for decades to estimate the size and geographic distribution of the undocumented population. The new research adapted the procedure to the highly detailed data available through the Research Data Center, allowing the team to move beyond broad comparisons between states or metropolitan areas.
One result appeared to complicate the overall pattern. Although most measured crime categories declined or remained stable in neighborhoods with growing undocumented populations, robbery rates increased. The researchers caution that this finding should not be interpreted as evidence that undocumented residents are committing more robberies. Instead, the pattern may reflect increased victimization among undocumented immigrants, particularly because many participate in a cash-based economy and may have limited access to bank accounts or formal financial services.
This possibility is sometimes described as the “Walking ATM” phenomenon. People who regularly carry cash may become attractive targets for robbery, while undocumented residents may be less likely to report crimes because they fear immigration consequences or deportation. The study cannot conclusively test this explanation because its data do not identify the immigration status of crime victims. However, the rise in robberies alongside declines in other crime categories is more consistent with a victimization pattern than with a general increase in offending by undocumented immigrants.
The researchers emphasize that the study identifies neighborhood-level relationships rather than proving that changes in immigration directly cause changes in crime. Crime is shaped by numerous factors, including economic conditions, policing practices, housing instability, labor markets, and demographic change. By examining thousands of neighborhoods over several years and applying statistical controls, the study provides a more detailed test than earlier research, but no observational analysis can eliminate every possible source of uncertainty.
Kubrin argues that the findings raise serious questions about the public-safety rationale behind current immigration enforcement policies. Billions of dollars are spent on enforcement based partly on the premise that undocumented immigrants represent a major threat to community safety. Yet the neighborhood-level evidence offers little support for that assumption. The researchers also warn that aggressive enforcement can undermine trust between immigrant communities and police, discourage residents from reporting crimes, and direct resources toward low-level offenses rather than serious threats.
The potential costs extend beyond crime statistics. A separate study led by UC Irvine urban planning and public policy scholar T. William Lester found that businesses in Orange County lost nearly $59 million in economic output during an eight-week period following intensified federal immigration enforcement. Together, the findings suggest that enforcement policies may produce social and economic damage without delivering the crime reductions used to justify them. For communities seeking effective public-safety strategies, the new research points toward neighborhood conditions, victim protection, and cooperation with residents—not assumptions about immigration status—as more productive targets for policy.
Subject of Research: People
Article Title: Does unauthorized immigration drive community crime rates? Evidence from 11,500 U.S. neighborhoods
News Publication Date: 10-Aug-2026
Web References: https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2026.2699123
References: Kubrin, C. E., Christopher, D., Hodgen, C., Luo, X. I., and Hipp, J. “Does unauthorized immigration drive community crime rates? Evidence from 11,500 U.S. neighborhoods.” Journal of Urban Affairs. DOI: 10.1080/07352166.2026.2699123
Keywords: unauthorized immigration, immigration and crime, neighborhood crime, criminology, property crime, violent crime, robbery, victimization, undocumented immigrants, public safety, immigration enforcement, urban research
