Losing Party Supporters Show Lower Trust in Fellow Citizens, Study Finds

Election results appear to reshape how voters view people they have never met—especially when their side loses. A new Canadian study finds that supporters of losing parties report lower social trust toward fellow citizens after elections than supporters of winning parties. The effect is strongest among voters with high affective polarization, meaning they both strongly identify with their own party and feel intense dislike toward rival parties.

The research argues that electoral competition, typically celebrated for producing legitimate outcomes, may also weaken social cohesion by amplifying partisan hostility. “Social trust is one of the most important ingredients in a well-functioning society,” said Mark Williamson, an assistant professor at McGill University and lead author of the study.

To investigate the mechanism, the team analyzed data from multiple Canadian election cycles spanning 2004 to 2024. Across six national and 11 subnational campaigns, they examined survey measures from more than 30,000 people, including voting intentions and beliefs about how trustworthy other citizens are.

Williamson and colleagues propose that elections act as a signal. Voters may interpret outcomes as revealing how common “like-minded” co-partisans are in the broader electorate. Those perceived co-partisans may then be associated with trustworthy traits, reinforcing trust among winners while encouraging suspicion among losers.

For affectively polarized voters, the signal can be more disruptive. When partisanship is tightly linked in their minds to personal character and credibility, election results can intensify generalizations about others across party lines, increasing distrust after defeat.

Notably, the winner–loser gap emerged after national elections but not consistently after subnational contests. The authors suggest that federal outcomes may be interpreted as describing the country as a whole, while provincial and district results may feel narrower or less representative.

The study extends earlier work showing different levels of institutional trust after elections by party standings. Here, the focus is broader: willingness to extend trust beyond one’s political circle to strangers who share no personal connection.

The next phase will explore how the victory of a politician from a racial or ethnic outgroup influences attitudes. The team plans to examine Wab Kinew’s 2023 election as Manitoba premier as a case study, probing whether electoral signals can reshape intergroup trust.