Embargoed until 02 May 2025
DYNAMO-M: A Revolutionary Model Predicts Global Coastal Farmers’ Response to Sea Level Rise
As climate change accelerates, rising sea levels pose an unprecedented threat to coastal farming communities worldwide. Scientists at the Institute for Environmental Sciences (IVM) at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam have developed DYNAMO-M, an innovative global agent-based model that simulates how millions of farmers living along vulnerable coastlines might respond to the growing risks of coastal flooding and saltwater intrusion in the face of sea level rise (SLR). Unveiled ahead of its presentation at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2025, this model pioneers a new paradigm in integrating human decision-making into environmental risk assessments, potentially transforming global strategies for climate adaptation.
Unlike traditional physical models that solely estimate environmental impacts, DYNAMO-M incorporates socio-economic behavioral theories to simulate farmer decision-making at an unprecedented scale. Rooted in discounted expected utility (DEU) theory, the model computes the choices of approximately 13 million farming households worldwide who are threatened by saline intrusion and inundation of arable land. By factoring in the complex calculus farmers perform when faced with loss, adaptation costs, and uncertain futures, DYNAMO-M projects three primary decision pathways: to remain and endure losses, to adapt through innovations such as salt-tolerant crop varieties or home elevation, or to abandon lands and migrate inland.
Spanning a sixty-year timeframe from 2020 to 2080, DYNAMO-M offers granular, crop-specific forecasts covering 23 major food crops cultivated in flood-prone coastal regions. This temporal and spatial resolution enables researchers to capture the dynamic interplay between environmental stressors and human responses over multiple agricultural cycles. The model’s capacity to simulate year-by-year choices provides critical insight into tipping points when farmers might switch strategies as conditions worsen, supply chains are disrupted, or policy incentives shift.
Sea level rise driven by climate change is expected to exacerbate salinization of soil and surface waters, directly undermining crop yields and farmers’ livelihoods. Current trends already show alarming declines in productivity, but the new DYNAMO-M projections highlight hotspots where the cumulative impact will likely trigger significant population movements. Regions identified as particularly vulnerable include large swaths of the US East Coast states like Florida, New York, and Oregon, as well as critical coastal zones in Japan, China, the Philippines, and Italy. Many of these areas intersect with 1-in-100-year floodplains, amplifying the risk of episodic but devastating flood events.
What sets DYNAMO-M apart is its ability to not only map the vulnerability but also explore adaptive responses under different socioeconomic scenarios. The research team incorporated government insurance schemes and subsidy measures into the model framework, testing how various levels of policy intervention could influence farmer decisions. Results suggest that even modest financial support and risk-sharing mechanisms have the potential to significantly bolster adaptive capacity, thereby reducing forced migration. This insight underscores the importance of targeted, well-designed policy tools to maintain both agricultural productivity and community stability in coastal zones.
Lead researcher Kushagra Pandey emphasizes the critical nature of these findings: “Rising seas are forcing a decision: stay, adapt, or migrate.” By quantifying these choices and the conditions under which they occur, DYNAMO-M offers a data-driven foundation for policymakers, insurers, and development agencies. This tool could help prioritize investments, design adaptive agriculture programs, and plan migration pathways proactively, rather than reactively responding to crises.
The implications for global food security are profound. Coastal farmlands contribute substantially to national and international food supplies, and disruption in these areas could ripple through supply chains and markets, intensifying food price volatility. By capturing how farmers respond in real time to environmental and economic stressors, DYNAMO-M enables stakeholders to anticipate localized crop losses and shifts in production patterns decades in advance, guiding mitigation efforts before scenarios become dire.
Furthermore, the integration of discounted expected utility theory introduces a sophisticated psychological realism rarely seen in large-scale environmental models. Rather than assuming homogenous responses, the approach recognizes heterogeneity in risk tolerance, resource availability, and future expectations, reflecting the diversity of farmer profiles and socio-economic contexts worldwide. This nuance allows for more accurate scenario planning that accounts for varying degrees of resilience and vulnerability.
While much attention has focused on urban populations threatened by sea level rise, DYNAMO-M expands the lens to include rural agricultural households, a group often underserved by climate adaptation funding and infrastructure. The model identifies key geographical and social nodes where interventions could foster robust agricultural communities capable of withstanding or adapting to changing coastal landscapes, thereby sustaining rural economies and cultures.
The project’s open access website, www.coastmove.org, hosts interactive visualizations and detailed datasets, fostering transparency and enabling collaboration with other researchers and policymakers. As the EGU General Assembly 2025 convenes in Vienna this April and May, the presentation of DYNAMO-M promises to generate robust dialogue on integrating human behavior into climate risk assessments—a critical step for holistic resilience planning.
In summary, DYNAMO-M represents a paradigm shift in climate risk modelling. Its coupling of high-resolution environmental forecasts with rigorous socio-economic decision frameworks supplies a powerful tool to delineate future challenges and opportunities for coastal agriculture in a warming world. As governments and organizations strive to safeguard vulnerable populations from the relentless advance of sea level rise, models like DYNAMO-M will be central to crafting science-based policies that balance environmental realities with human adaptability.
For further details or inquiries, please contact lead researcher Kushagra Pandey at kushagrapandey.bsky.social. Complete study findings will be presented at EGU25 in Session HS5.2.3 on Friday, 02 May 2025, 09:03–09:05 CEST.
Subject of Research: Coastal farmers’ adaptive responses to sea level rise using agent-based modeling
Article Title: DYNAMO-M: Modeling Coastal Farming Decisions Amidst Rising Seas
News Publication Date: 02 May 2025
Web References: http://www.coastmove.org, https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/session/52558
References: DOI 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10487
Keywords: Sea level rise, sea level change, farming, coastal adaptation, agent-based modeling, climate risk, migration
