New research conducted by the University of Southampton has cast a discerning light on the alarming trend of decreasing trust in political institutions across democratic nations. The study stands as one of the most extensive analyses of political trust, examining data from a staggering 3,377 surveys spanning 143 countries from 1958 to 2019, encompassing more than five million respondents. This formidable dataset reveals significant insights about the public’s increasing skepticism towards their elected representatives, while trust in non-elected institutions, such as the police and legal systems, exhibits a starkly different trend.
The research heralds a warning for democratic systems, indicating that the erosion of trust in political authorities may facilitate the rise of authoritarianism. Dr. Viktor Valgarðsson, the lead author of the study, elaborates that this decline in political trust is not merely a statistic but a centerpiece of the myriad challenges besetting democratic governance worldwide. The study’s findings explicitly highlight that waning trust in representative institutions correlates highly with the prevalence of populism and figures that challenge the democratic status quo.
Intriguingly, while the public’s faith in the mechanisms of parliamentary democracy diminishes, confidence in non-representational institutions appears resilient or even robust. This paradox signals a troubling disjunction between the expectations citizens have of democracy and the perceived effectiveness of those tasked with its maintenance. Trust in entities like the police, civil service, and judiciary has remained relatively stable or is on the rise—suggesting some citizens may still find assurance in non-political avenues for governance and public order.
The implications of these trends are far-reaching and could potentially reshape the political landscape in several nations. Low political trust is often associated with a growing support base for populist leaders who position themselves against the establishment. Such dynamics create fertile ground for candidates who promise radical changes to the status quo—changes that may include undermining the very foundations of democratic institutions. Thus, the shift in trust can be seen as not only a symptom of disenchantment but also as a precursor for political movements that may eschew democratic norms altogether.
The researchers noticed distinct trajectories across different nations, reinforcing the notion that regional contexts profoundly shape public perceptions. For example, in the United States, there has been a marked precipitous decline in trust towards federal government institutions over the past decades. The timing of this decline coincides with an overt assault on democratic principles by various political figures, deepening concerns regarding the sustainability of American democracy in its current form.
Across various democracies, the study highlights that trust in parliament has witnessed an approximate decline of nine percentage points from 1990 to 2019. Meanwhile, trust in law enforcement has surged upward by about 13 percentage points in the same timeframe. This finding emphasizes a critical tipping point in public sentiment—a shift that suggests citizens may be retreating into the belief that institutions at the ground level, particularly those involved in law enforcement, provide better service compared to elected officials who are traditionally expected to represent public interests.
Further analysis reveals a concerning trend where political trust has significantly dipped across numerous democracies such as Argentina, Brazil, France, Italy, and even the UK. Of particular note, trust within the UK has seen its own complexities with fluctuations around significant political events like the Brexit referendum. While mechanisms of governance took a beating in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, there are signs of a gradual recovery in some institutional trust measures—particularly post-crisis experiences that have reshaped public perspectives on governance.
Interestingly, in specific regions, such as Scandinavia and parts of New Zealand, optimism toward democratic institutions remains robust, challenging the notion that declining trust is an inevitable trend across all democracies. As Professor Will Jennings states, this decline is not fixed nor predetermined; it suggests a demand for reform in how democratic politics is practiced. Given that support for democratic ideals endures among citizens, it paves the way for potential innovations toward more participatory governance models.
The comprehensive dataset serves as a clarion call to democratic governments to re-engage with the electorate and restore confidence. The research is supported by both the Economic and Social Research Council and the Leverhulme Trust, emphasizing the crucial need for ongoing investigations into the dynamics of political trust. The broader message from the findings is clear: strengthening the principles of transparency, accountability, and citizen engagement may be potent remedies to the malaise of declining political trust witnessed globally.
Citizens today are confronted not only with the realities of dwindling faith in politicians and political parties but are also seeking assurance in the competencies of institutional frameworks designed to govern law and order. This duality in trust can influence the future trajectory of not just democratic governance but civil society as well. Understanding and addressing the roots of this disillusionment could well dictate the health of democracies in the coming decades.
In conclusion, while this research highlights alarming trends regarding political trust globally, it also serves as an opportunity for introspection and growth within democratic ideals. Engaging citizens with renewed vigor, fostering trust through effective governance, and reforming political institutions will be essential for the sustainability of democracy in an era marked by significant political and social upheaval.
Subject of Research: Trust in political institutions
Article Title: A Crisis of Political Trust? Global Trends in Institutional Trust from 1958 to 2019
News Publication Date: 12-Feb-2025
Web References: British Journal of Political Science
References: DOI: 10.1017/S0007123424000498
Image Credits: Credit: University of Southampton
Keywords: Political trust, Democracy, Governance, Public opinion, Institutional trust, Political parties, Populism.
