In recent years, the urgent imperative to curb global carbon emissions has propelled cities worldwide into the spotlight as critical arenas of environmental innovation and transformation. China, as the world’s largest emitter, presents a particularly compelling case study in navigating the complex dynamics of low-carbon urban development amid rapid economic growth and industrialization. A pioneering study has devised a comprehensive low-carbon transformation index to quantitatively evaluate the progress of Chinese cities in transitioning towards sustainable development paradigms. This index not only measures the trajectory of low-carbon progress but also illuminates the nuanced spatial and temporal variations across different urban agglomerations, providing unparalleled insight into underlying economic and social drivers.
Between 2011 and 2019, the study reveals a significant uptick in China’s overall low-carbon transformation index, signifying accelerated movement toward sustainability. Nationally, the average index value increased from a modest 0.053 to an improved 0.091. This upward trend underscores the pivotal advances in energy efficiency, clean technology adoption, and policy-driven environmental regulation across urban centers. Geographically, notable disparities emerge, with eastern coastal cities outpacing others due to their stronger economic foundations and infrastructural capacity. Interestingly, the western region demonstrates a relatively better performance than the central area, reflecting diverse regional development trajectories.
Urban agglomeration serves as a critical lens through which the study contextualizes low-carbon transformation. Cities exhibiting high indices cluster predominantly in economically vibrant and administratively significant metropolitan areas such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. These hubs consistently rank at the forefront of sustainable transitions in 2011, 2015, and 2019, highlighting the interplay between governance quality, economic vigor, and environmental stewardship. This spatial agglomeration phenomenon suggests that urban centers possessing robust institutional frameworks and innovation ecosystems are better equipped to spearhead low-carbon initiatives.
A particularly sophisticated methodological approach employed in the study is the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model, which unpacks the complex, heterogeneous influences shaping the low-carbon transformation landscape. The GTWR findings reveal that variables such as population density, foreign direct investment (FDI) per capita, the implementation of low-carbon pilot policies, and per capita fixed asset investment exerted predominantly positive effects on the transformation index. The spatial patterns of these influences vary significantly. For instance, heightened population density and FDI inflows in northern coastal regions catalyze low-carbon development, whereas fixed asset investments paradoxically hinder progress in the northeast and Shandong, likely due to entrenched industrial structures.
Contrastingly, factors such as resource dependency, infrastructural status, and GDP target growth rates emerge as inhibitors of low-carbon transformation. Resource-based cities, often reliant on fossil fuel extraction and heavy industries, exhibit stronger negative impacts, particularly in western and central China. Similarly, overemphasis on infrastructure development—while conventionally associated with modernization—appears to impede sustainability transitions, suggesting inefficiencies or carbon-intensive modes of expansion. Furthermore, aggressive GDP growth targets correlate with significant environmental setbacks in highly industrialized zones like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Inner Mongolia, underscoring the tension between economic ambition and ecological preservation.
Temporal dynamics further complicate these interactions. In 2011, per capita fixed asset investment stood out as the dominant driver of regional low-carbon transformation. However, by 2015, the role of FDI intensified, effectively supplanting fixed asset investments as the leading catalyst in eastern, central, and western regions. This shift signals a broader economic reorientation, where infusions of foreign capital, often linked to technology transfer and green innovation, gain primacy in fostering sustainable urban development. Nonetheless, fixed asset investment retained significant sway over the western region’s trajectory, indicative of persistent reliance on conventional growth models.
The study also highlights the emergent significance of population density as a pivotal driver, particularly in eastern and central China. The agglomeration of human capital in these regions fuels innovation capacity and energizes service sector expansion, facilitating decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions. By 2019, FDI had solidified its position as a consistent, stable impetus for low-carbon transformation across all major regions. Moreover, GDP target growth rate surfaced as a dominant factor, reflecting increasing policy challenges where economic expansion goals may inadvertently undermine environmental objectives.
These multifaceted findings impart critical implications for policymakers within China and offer transferable lessons for other developing economies grappling with similar industrialization and urbanization pressures. Primarily, the research advocates for a tailored, region-specific policy approach that recognizes the divergent socio-economic contexts and resource endowments across urban landscapes. In advanced eastern cities, policies prioritizing green innovation ecosystems, financial sector transformation, and human capital development are paramount to sustaining momentum toward sustainable growth.
Conversely, central and western cities, still tethered to resource extraction and traditional manufacturing, must accelerate the cultivation of new economic drivers. This entails supporting the optimization of industrial structures, nurturing emerging sectors like high-end manufacturing, and advancing energy utilization efficiency. Encouragingly, the study suggests that strategic investments in these domains can unlock low-carbon pathways distinct from those successful in more developed regions.
A nuanced policy recommendation underscores the geographical heterogeneity of low-carbon influencing factors. For example, the negative impacts of resource dependency and infrastructure overinvestment necessitate careful recalibration in the western and central regions to better align economic growth with environmental imperatives. Implementing low-carbon pilot policies tailored to resource-based cities and fostering reforms to decouple growth from carbon emissions could catalyze broader structural transformations.
Additionally, governments should aim to optimize investment structures, reducing dependence on fixed asset investments that may inadvertently lock in carbon-intensive development. Careful calibration of GDP growth targets is crucial to balance economic vitality with environmental sustainability, particularly in industrialized clusters prone to pollution and carbon leakage.
Foreign direct investment’s ascendancy as a dominant positive influence signals the importance of cultivating a conducive business environment that attracts green FDI. This requires strengthening intellectual property protections, enhancing technology spillovers, and supporting innovation clusters that can serve as conduits for advanced clean technologies and practices.
Drawing parallels beyond China, the study’s insights carry potent global resonance. Developing countries at varying stages of industrialization share common challenges—how to reconcile urbanization and economic expansion with carbon reduction imperatives. For resource-rich nations, prioritizing energy efficiency improvements and transitioning away from heavy industries become urgent. Green innovation policies, environmental regulations, and transformative financial systems can collectively steer sustainable urban trajectories.
Emerging economies should also heed the risks of indiscriminately stimulating fixed asset investments or pursuing aggressive GDP growth without environmental safeguards. Instead, fostering quality over quantity in economic expansion and integrating social dimensions like human capital development will be pivotal in enabling a green transition.
Taken together, these findings articulate a compelling narrative: the pathway to low-carbon urban futures in China and beyond is necessarily complex, geographically differentiated, and reliant on multifaceted economic and societal levers. Strategic policy calibration, informed by rigorous data-driven analyses like this low-carbon transformation index, offers a blueprint for harmonizing development ambitions with planetary boundaries.
As cities continue to serve as crucibles of innovation and sustainability experimentation, understanding and leveraging the spatial-temporal dynamics embedded within their growth patterns will be imperative. The lesson from China’s experience is clear—there is no one-size-fits-all solution. Instead, nuanced, regionally adapted strategies grounded in empirical insights will be essential for crafting resilient, low-carbon urban ecosystems in the decades to come.
Subject of Research: Evaluation of low-carbon transformation in Chinese cities and analysis of spatiotemporal evolution patterns along with influencing economic and social factors.
Article Title: Low-carbon transformation of China’s cities: evaluation and spatiotemporal pattern evolution.
Article References:
Zhang, J., Bai, C., Zhou, L. et al. Low-carbon transformation of China’s cities: evaluation and spatiotemporal pattern evolution. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 12, 597 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-04918-5
Image Credits: AI Generated
