Climate change is rewriting the future of Europe’s forests, a vital component of the continent’s ecological and economic fabric. Researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have embarked on a groundbreaking study, harnessing advanced computational simulations to explore how the shifting climate will alter the economic value of forests across Europe by the end of this century. Their findings reveal a complex and uneven landscape: while northern regions may experience economic gains driven by faster tree growth, central and southern Europe face steeper economic losses exacerbated by escalating disturbances. This research not only underscores the urgent need for adaptive forest management strategies but also challenges conventional wisdom about forest profitability and resilience in a warming world.
Forests have long been recognized not only for their ecological importance but also as significant economic resources. Yet, their stability is increasingly undermined by climate-induced disturbances such as wildfires, storms, and bark beetle infestations. These events often translate into catastrophic financial losses for forest owners. Timber prices plummet as markets are flooded with damaged wood, or wood may become unsellable altogether due to poor quality. Until now, the full scope of how climate change will financially impact European forestry had remained largely speculative. The innovative modeling approach undertaken by the TUM team led by Professors Rupert Seidl and Thomas Knoke, alongside PhD researcher Johannes Sonnweber Mohr, has provided a critical quantification of these economic outcomes under various climate futures.
Employing sophisticated ecosystem models coupled with economic simulations, the researchers analyzed multiple scenarios based on projected climate conditions towards the century’s close. These models integrated the dynamic interplay between forest growth, climate variables, and a range of disturbance regimes—specifically, wildfires, storm damage, and bark beetle outbreaks, which currently represent the most significant destabilizing forces in European forests. These disturbances act as major disruptors, causing rapid loss of timber value and affecting the supply chains and markets dependent on forestry products.
One of the key revelations of the study is the stark regional divergence in projected outcomes. The expansive boreal forests of Scandinavia stand to benefit the most from climate change. Longer growing seasons, elevated temperatures, and increased atmospheric CO₂ levels may accelerate photosynthesis and biomass accumulation, boosting timber yields. Coupled with a reduced frequency of damaging disturbances in these northern latitudes, this scenario presents a potential economic upside where productivity gains might offset or even surpass the costs incurred from climate-related damages.
In sharp contrast, forests in Central and Southern Europe face severe vulnerabilities. Here, the impacts of climate change are projected to intensify disturbances dramatically. Southern Europe, already susceptible to drought and heat stress, is expected to experience wildfires and beetle infestations at unprecedented levels. These disturbances substantially diminish net timber production and associated revenues, ensuring that economic losses will consistently outweigh any incremental gain from accelerated tree growth. Central Europe, encompassing important forestry nations such as Germany, Austria, and the Czech Republic, is expected to confront a precarious balance where even moderate warming of approximately 2.6 degrees Celsius precipitates a steep decline in forest value, driven by surging disturbance costs.
Economically, the cumulative damage to European forests during the reference period between 1981 and 2005 was estimated at around €115 billion. However, under an extreme warming scenario of 4.8 degrees Celsius, the researchers project that these costs could more than double, reaching an alarming €247 billion by the end of the century. This exponential increase highlights the accelerating risks posed by climate change, which threatens to overwhelm traditional forestry practices that have long assumed relative stability in forest growth and disturbance regimes.
The study’s findings hold profound implications for forest management policies and economic planning. As disturbances become more frequent and severe, relying on historical data and uniform management strategies is no longer tenable. “Forestry can no longer follow a one-size-fits-all approach,” asserts Johannes Sonnweber Mohr. The unpredictability amplified by climate change calls for flexible, region-specific practices that incorporate disturbance risk assessments and proactive adaptation measures. For instance, forest managers might prioritize resilience by promoting species diversity and structural heterogeneity, which could mitigate some damage from pests and fires while enhancing ecological function.
Intriguingly, the research also reframes how economic value is attributed to different forest types. Conifer-dominated forests, especially prevalent in parts of Europe, have traditionally been seen as more profitable due to their fast growth and simplified management. However, their susceptibility to disturbances—particularly bark beetle outbreaks and windthrow—makes them economically riskier in a changing climate. On the other hand, mixed forests, displaying greater species and structural diversity, tend to resist disturbances more robustly and may ultimately offer greater long-term economic value. This insight challenges prevailing silvicultural paradigms and supports a paradigm shift toward diversity-focused management as a climate adaptation strategy.
The modeling approach is notable for its comprehensive integration of ecological processes and economic variables. By simulating forest growth alongside the frequency and severity of disturbances, the researchers could project not just biomass accumulation but actual market outcomes for timber. This capability enables a more nuanced understanding of how climate change interacts with both biological factors and economic markets, providing a critical tool for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to safeguard forest-dependent economies.
However, the authors note important caveats and uncertainties inherent in climate impact modeling. While their analysis focused on the three predominant disturbances of today—wildfires, storms, and bark beetle infestations—other threats may emerge or intensify with ongoing climate change, including invasive pests, diseases, and novel pathogens. Additionally, socio-economic factors such as shifts in timber demand, trade policies, and forest management innovations could alter future economic landscapes. As such, the projections presented should be viewed as plausible scenarios guiding adaptive responses rather than precise predictions.
The urgency of the study’s message resonates strongly against the backdrop of escalating climate risk globally. Europe’s forests not only provide essential commodities like timber and pulp but also store carbon, regulate water cycles, and sustain biodiversity. The prospect of significant economic losses threatens forestry livelihoods and broader ecological services. Effective adaptation could mitigate these losses while simultaneously fostering forests that are resilient, productive, and ecologically valuable under new climate regimes.
Central to adaptation, according to the researchers, is the need for robust economic evaluation frameworks that consider both growth potentials and disturbance risks. By explicitly quantifying how disturbances affect financial returns, forest owners and managers can make more informed decisions regarding investments, species selection, and harvest planning. This alignment of ecological and economic perspectives is critical to sustaining the multifunctional benefits of forests amid climate uncertainty.
The TUM study thus represents a milestone in both scientific understanding and practical forest management. Its regional, process-based simulations and economic integration provide a template for future research and policy development. As global climate change accelerates, such forward-looking analyses will be indispensable in steering Europe’s forests toward a sustainable future where ecological integrity and economic viability are balanced.
In conclusion, the fate of Europe’s forests under climate change is not monolithic but multifaceted and regionally nuanced. While northern forests may harness climate-driven growth to their advantage, central and southern forests face mounting disturbance pressures that threaten their economic value. This dichotomy demands a transformative approach to forestry—one that embraces diversity, anticipates disturbances, and grounds decisions in rigorous computational insights. Only through such adaptive and nuanced strategies can Europe’s forests continue to flourish in an era of unprecedented change.
Subject of Research: Not applicable
Article Title: —
News Publication Date: 18-Sep-2025
Web References: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02408-9
References: Nature Climate Change
Image Credits: Rupert Seidl / TUM
Keywords: Climate Change, European Forests, Forest Economics, Disturbances, Wildfires, Bark Beetle, Storm Damage, Forest Management, Ecosystem Modeling, Carbon Storage, Adaptive Forestry, Timber Markets
