A newly approved fossil fuel development site off the coast of Western Australia, known as the Scarborough project, is projected to contribute an alarming 876 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions over its operational lifespan. This extensive output is expected to begin in 2026 with the extraction and liquefied natural gas production continuing for at least 31 years. The magnitude of these emissions represents a critical juncture in the ongoing discourse surrounding fossil fuel extraction and its irreversible influence on global climate patterns. Research led by The Australian National University (ANU), in conjunction with the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, has provided a rigorous scientific quantification of the environmental impact originating from this project.
The emissions released from the Scarborough site, although numerically minute when compared to global annual emissions, hold significant ramifications on both regional and global scales. The team applied the Transient Climate Response to CO2 Emissions (TCRE) methodology, an approach widely recognized and utilized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which integrates empirical observations and climate modeling to ascertain temperature responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions. Their analysis revealed that the Scarborough project alone would induce an additional 0.00039 degrees Celsius of global warming. This seemingly minor increment masks profound consequences for climate systems and human populations around the world.
From a systemic perspective, the additional warming triggered by these emissions will elevate vulnerability by exposing around 560,000 more people globally to unprecedented heat events. These extreme temperatures transcend historical climate norms and pose serious risks to public health, especially in regions lacking adequate infrastructure to mitigate heat stress. Furthermore, the warming will displace approximately 356,000 people from the human climate niche—the environmental conditions characterized by temperature ranges within which human societies have historically flourished. This displacement signals a profound shift in habitable zones, calling for urgent adaptation strategies.
Heat-related mortality projections underline the human cost of climate change directly attributable to new fossil fuel projects. By the century’s end, the study estimates an increase of 484 heat-induced deaths in Europe, with an additional 118 fatalities in other global regions. These figures are predicated on a “middle-of-the-road” emissions pathway, highlighting the persistent and lethal impacts of complacency in global emission mitigation efforts. The human toll underscores the urgent imperative not only to curb emissions but also to bolster community resilience and public health frameworks worldwide.
The ecological ramifications are equally stark and far-reaching. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR), a UNESCO World Heritage site of immense biodiversity, faces exacerbated thermal stress due to the incremental warming facilitated by the Scarborough project. Researchers estimate an enhanced loss of 16 million coral colonies during each future bleaching event triggered by elevated ocean temperatures. Increased bleaching frequency threatens the reef’s structural integrity, impacting marine ecosystems, fisheries, and coastal protection services that millions of Australians depend upon.
The study critically contests industry narratives that label projected emissions from such fossil fuel developments as “negligible” relative to global greenhouse gas reservoirs. Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick from ANU challenges this minimization, emphasizing the necessity to acknowledge cumulative and long-lasting impacts of individual projects. She explains that dismissing the connections between emissions and climate change neglects the substantial environmental and social damages emerging from these developments, a gap that this research aims to bridge by providing precise quantifications grounded in robust climate science.
Further compounding the issue is the disproportionate contribution of Scarborough’s emissions to Australia’s national carbon budget. By the midpoint of the century, emissions from this single project are projected to constitute nearly half—49 percent—of Australia’s entire allowable annual CO2 emissions to meet its climate targets. This stark imbalance reveals an urgent need for recalibrating national energy strategies and emissions reductions policies to ensure alignment with international commitments under the Paris Agreement.
The study also addresses the limitations and challenges related to carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies that are often proposed as mitigation measures for emissions from such large-scale fossil fuel projects. Dr. Nicola Maher highlights that current global capacities for durable carbon removal are woefully inadequate. Human-led carbon capture efforts in 2023 removed approximately 0.04 million tonnes of CO2, a figure dwarfed by the annual emissions envisioned from the Scarborough project alone. Bridging this gap would require dramatic advancements in CCS deployment, efficiency, and scalability—a formidable technical and economic challenge.
Beyond the quantitative projections, the research sets a precedent for integrating rigorous scientific assessments into decision-making processes concerning fossil fuel development. It provides a transparent framework that can empower policymakers, companies, and communities to weigh environmental and societal risks against economic benefits with unprecedented clarity. Scientific evidence such as this illuminates the hidden cost embedded in fossil fuel extraction—costs that transcend the boundaries of financial accounting and enter the realms of global health, biodiversity, and climate stability.
Associate Professor Andrew King from the University of Melbourne further underscores the long-term nature of warming tied to such projects, which endure from decades into centuries. This longevity of impact calls for reconsidering the sustainability and legitimacy of future fossil fuel ventures amid an escalating climate crisis. The cumulative effects of these projects underline the urgency of transitioning to renewable energy infrastructures and halting new fossil fuel developments.
The methodological approach via TCRE employed in this research is particularly noteworthy. By correlating cumulative emissions directly with temperature responses, it offers a robust, scientifically validated pathway to predict and attribute climate impacts with reduced uncertainty. This approach advances the field of climate impact assessment by moving beyond broad estimations to establish concrete links between discrete emission sources and their climatic outcomes.
In conclusion, the Scarborough fossil fuel project exemplifies the complex trade-offs confronted in the global energy landscape. While the projected 876 million tonnes of CO2 emissions may appear modest in the context of global figures, their incremental warming effect initiates a cascade of adverse environmental and social consequences. From heightened heat exposure and mortality risks to the degradation of vital ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef, this research delineates the far-reaching consequences of continuing fossil fuel expansion. The findings amplify calls for urgent, science-driven policy interventions to curtail emissions, enhance carbon removal technologies, and safeguard vulnerable populations and natural systems from escalating climate disruptions.
Subject of Research: Quantification of the climate and social impacts of individual fossil fuel projects, specifically focusing on the Scarborough liquefied natural gas project off Western Australia.
Article Title: Quantifying the regional to global climate impacts of individual fossil fuel projects to inform decision-making
News Publication Date: 13-Oct-2025
Web References: 10.1038/s44168-025-00296-5
Keywords: Fossil fuel emissions, Scarborough project, global warming, carbon dioxide, climate impacts, heat exposure, human climate niche, coral bleaching, Great Barrier Reef, carbon capture and storage, Transient Climate Response to Emissions, climate risk assessment
