Yangtze forest–cropland–water vulnerability fell from 2000 to 2023

An indicator-based study of China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt found that the ecological vulnerability of its forest, cropland and water systems generally declined between 2000 and 2023, though the trend fluctuated over time. Vulnerability also fell for the combined “Forest–Cropland–Water” system, and areas previously classified as highly vulnerable progressively shifted into moderate- and low-vulnerability categories. Over the same period, the system’s coupling coordination moved from mild imbalance toward mild coordination.

The study assessed the Yangtze River Economic Belt, a region where forests, agricultural land and water jointly contribute to carbon sequestration, grain production and water conservation. The authors constructed a multi-system evaluation framework that combined the Order relation method, the CRITIC method and game-theory combination weighting. They then used coupling coordination and spatial autocorrelation models to map the spatiotemporal patterns of ecosystem interactions and their spatial clustering characteristics.

Spatial clustering of coupling coordination gradually weakened over the study period, indicating that the mapped relationships among forest, cropland and water became less concentrated around distinct spatial clusters. At the same time, the transition from mild imbalance toward mild coordination indicated improved alignment among the three ecosystem components. The reported result does not establish that coordination was optimal or spatially uniform; it specifically shows that the system’s measured coupling moved closer to a mildly coordinated condition as overall vulnerability declined.

Geodetector analysis identified land-use intensity and aerosol optical depth as the factors with the strongest and most consistent explanatory power for the coupling coordination degree. The influence of extreme high-temperature days declined markedly over time, while the remaining selected factors had subsidiary roles. These findings describe associations detected within the study’s indicator and analytical framework, not proof that any individual driver directly caused the observed changes. The analysis provides a systematic approach for evaluating ecological vulnerability and coordination among linked terrestrial and water systems, although its conclusions are bounded by the selected indicators, weighting scheme, spatial models and study period.

Subject of Research: Spatiotemporal changes and drivers of forest–cropland–water ecosystem vulnerability in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Article Title: Spatiotemporal evolution and coupling of “Forest–Cropland–Water” ecosystem vulnerability in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Article References: Wu, S., Li, X., Liu, X., Zeng, G., Zhang, W., Liu, X., Zeng, Q., Sun, J., Ru, L., Xing, H., & Kang, J. (2026). Spatiotemporal evolution and coupling of “Forest–Cropland–Water” ecosystem vulnerability in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. PLOS One, 21(10), e0360810. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0360810

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0360810

Keywords: Yangtze River Economic Belt, ecosystem vulnerability, forest ecosystems, cropland systems, water conservation, coupling coordination, land-use intensity, aerosol optical depth, spatial autocorrelation, geodetector analysis, Spatiotemporal, evolution