Global model maps aquavoltaics potential for power and emissions offsets

A global modeling study estimates that installing solar photovoltaic systems over clustered freshwater aquaculture ponds could produce 4,143 ± 145 terawatt-hours of electricity annually and help offset the sector’s carbon footprint. Researchers combined satellite observation products with climate-driven simulations of photovoltaic systems to map the distribution and potential expansion of aquavoltaics worldwide. They estimated the scenario by covering 40% of more than 50,000 square kilometres of landside aquaculture ponds.

The results describe modeled technical potential rather than output from a completed deployment program. The study found that aquavoltaics covered 423 square kilometres globally in 2023, with China accounting for 97% of that area. Using satellite data to identify clusters of aquaculture ponds, the researchers evaluated where photovoltaic installations could be placed and estimated their electricity production under realistic climate-driven system simulations.

Their 40% coverage scenario produced the central estimate of 4,143 ± 145 TWh per year, with the accompanying uncertainty indicating a range rather than a single guaranteed output. The researchers also compared modeled aquavoltaic generation with electricity demand at the city level. Under the scenario they assessed, deployment could support energy self-sufficiency in 878 cities.

A second component of the analysis examined the relationship between renewable electricity generated by aquavoltaics and emissions associated with inland freshwater aquaculture. At the grid level, the model estimated that deployment could offset the freshwater aquaculture carbon footprint in 61 countries through avoided emissions associated with electricity generation. This was a modeled accounting relationship between estimated renewable output and the electricity system, not evidence that aquaculture in those countries has already reached a net-zero balance.

The findings are presented as a global assessment of potential, and the supplied results do not establish how quickly or to what extent installations could be realized. Taken together, the analysis places aquavoltaics at the intersection of energy, food production and climate accounting. The study identifies a large modeled generation potential and links part of that potential to city-level electricity supply and national-scale emissions offsets.

Its scope, however, is defined by a global model using satellite observations, climate-driven photovoltaic simulations, a 40% pond-coverage assumption and grid-level avoided emissions.

Subject of Research: Global modeling of aquavoltaic electricity generation and freshwater aquaculture emissions offsets

Article Title: The global potential of aquavoltaics for power generation and offsetting the carbon footprint of freshwater aquaculture

Article References: Xia, Z., Bush, S. R., Jia, N., Li, Y., Bao, E., Guo, S., Chen, R., Pan, X., Chen, K., Guo, X., Jiang, P., & Du, P. (2026). The global potential of aquavoltaics for power generation and offsetting the carbon footprint of freshwater aquaculture. Nature Food. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01446-6

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1038/s43016-026-01446-6

Keywords: aquavoltaics, photovoltaics, freshwater aquaculture, renewable electricity, greenhouse gas emissions, satellite observations, global modeling, climate-driven simulation, grid emissions, global, potential, power