Regional value-chain links associate with lower carbon intensity in China’s agri-food exports

Regional value-chain integration was associated with lower production-side direct fossil-energy carbon dioxide emissions linked to China’s agri-food exports across 39 Belt and Road partner economies, according to an analysis of bilateral trade from 2007 through 2023. Its central finding was that long-run improvements in export carbon intensity more than offset cumulative pressures from expanding export scale and changes in production structure. The researchers built a bilateral country–industry–year panel and used Asian Development Bank multi-regional input–output tables to identify bilateral value-added paths.

Chinese sectoral fossil-energy data and emissions factors from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were used to measure production-side direct fossil-energy CO2 attributed to export domestic value added. The analysis combined logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition, fixed-effects models, an external shift-share instrument, value-chain configuration tests and a within–between decomposition. Baseline fixed-effects and instrumental-variable estimates showed a negative overall association between regional value-chain cooperation and absolute production-side direct CO2 emissions.

The relationship remained negative in samples restricted to observations after 2013. Within established partner–industry relationships, deeper regional value-chain integration was significantly associated with lower carbon per unit of exports, while the coefficients for export scale and absolute emissions were statistically insignificant. The results therefore distinguish the carbon performance associated with deeper trade relationships from the separate effect of trade volume.

Value-chain configuration also showed distinct associations. Denser two-way embedment was associated with higher carbon pressure, whereas a more forward-oriented structure was associated with lower carbon. Because the study used observational panel estimates and model-based emissions accounting, these results identify associations rather than establish that regional value-chain integration caused the observed emissions changes.

The authors suggest combining production-efficiency gains with forward-oriented domestic value creation and monitoring scale effects in deeper agri-food production networks.

Subject of Research: Carbon performance of regional value-chain integration in China’s agri-food exports

Article Title: Can regional value-chain integration decouple China's agri-food export growth from production-side direct CO2 attributed to export domestic value added? Evidence from belt and road partner economies

Article References: Tang, K., Yang, W., & Huang, Y. (2026). Can regional value-chain integration decouple China's agri-food export growth from production-side direct CO2 attributed to export domestic value added? Evidence from belt and road partner economies. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 10, Article 1977325. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2026.1977325

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2026.1977325

Keywords: agri-food exports, carbon intensity, China, regional value chains, Belt and Road, food processing, production emissions, trade networks, regional, value-chain, integration, decouple