Vineyard Suitability Maps Under Climate Change: Systematic Review Reveals Critical Methodological Gaps

A sweeping systematic review published in Frontiers in Agronomy has revealed a striking paradox at the heart of modern viticulture: while the tools available for mapping where vineyards should grow have never been more powerful, most land suitability assessments still rely on historical climate data, leaving the wine industry planning its future with maps anchored firmly in the past. The study, led by Giovanni Marchese of the University of Pavia together with colleagues from the CMCC Foundation, analyzed 39 peer-reviewed studies published between 2000 and September 2025, and found that only four explicitly incorporated future climate scenarios into their suitability models.

The research team conducted a structured literature search across the Scopus and Web of Science databases, initially retrieving 1,253 records. After removing duplicates and screening titles, abstracts, and full texts using the Rayyan tool, the team narrowed the field to 39 studies that specifically addressed vineyard land suitability and produced suitability maps for vineyard establishment. This rigorous filtering process highlights how fragmented the field remains despite growing academic and practical interest in climate-resilient viticulture.

What emerged from the analysis is a field dominated by Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA), which appeared in 17 of the 39 reviewed publications. MCA allows researchers to structure and rank different environmental variables—temperature, rainfall, soil properties, topography—based on their relative importance, making it particularly effective at regional and local scales where multiple factors must be combined, often with incomplete or non-uniform datasets. The method’s flexibility in integrating heterogeneous data has made it the go-to framework for vineyard suitability assessment worldwide.

Yet the dominance of MCA masks a deeper problem: the selection and weighting of suitability criteria vary substantially across studies, reducing methodological consistency and limiting the comparability of results. The number of criteria used ranged from just 1 to 33, with an average of 13, reflecting differences in data availability, spatial scale, and research objectives. Some studies relied on a single indicator—such as minimum temperature to assess frost risk or the Winkler Index to classify thermal suitability—while others attempted comprehensive multi-factor assessments spanning climate, soil, and topography.

Weighting methods proved equally inconsistent. While the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) emerged as the most widely used formal approach, appearing in five studies, a substantial portion of the reviewed research either did not adopt a formal weighting method at all or simply assumed that all criteria contribute equally to suitability classes. This assumption can limit a model’s ability to accurately reflect real-world conditions, potentially reducing the reliability and applicability of the results. Expert-based methods, though widely used for their interpretability, introduce subjectivity into the modelling process, while data-driven approaches demand large and consistent datasets that are not always available.

The geographic distribution of research tells its own story. Europe dominated the reviewed literature with twelve studies across seven countries—Croatia, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Romania, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom—followed by significant representation from Australia, Türkiye, and the United States. This pattern aligns closely with global viticulture, reflecting regions with both established wine industries and active interest in land suitability assessment. The concentration of recent publications also reflects the rapid advancement of enabling technologies, including Geographic Information Systems (GIS), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and satellite data, which have transformed how researchers collect and process environmental information.

Beneath the methodological diversity lies a shared biological reality: grapevines are extraordinarily sensitive to their climate. Rising mean temperatures directly affect grapevine phenology by advancing key developmental stages such as budburst, flowering, and harvest. This compression of the growing cycle can lead to earlier ripening under warmer conditions, often resulting in higher sugar accumulation, lower acidity, and altered aromatic profiles—ultimately affecting wine quality. Excessive heat can induce thermal stress, impair photosynthesis, and reduce yield, while changes in precipitation patterns influence both water availability and disease pressure, with reduced rainfall intensifying drought stress and excessive rainfall promoting fungal diseases.

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events—heatwaves, late spring frosts, drought episodes, and extreme precipitation—represent an additional layer of complexity that most current suitability models fail to capture. These events are typically not reflected in average-based indices, yet they play a crucial role in determining both interannual variability and long-term suitability. The review notes that several studies indirectly account for extreme events through proxy indicators such as frost occurrence, heat stress, and water-related constraints, but these variables are rarely framed within an explicit climate change perspective, limiting their contribution to forward-looking and risk-oriented assessments.

The review also identified significant gaps in model outputs and analytical sophistication. None of the reviewed studies provides quantitative predictions of grape yield or production volume, relying instead on categorical suitability classifications that restrict applicability for operational decision-making. The limited use of advanced techniques such as machine learning constrains the ability to capture complex and non-linear relationships between environmental variables and suitability outcomes. Similarly, the integration of key datasets such as soil moisture remains limited, reducing the accuracy of water-related assessments.

Looking forward, the researchers argue that a paradigm shift is needed—from static suitability assessments to dynamic, climate-responsive modelling frameworks capable of supporting adaptive decision-making in viticulture. Future suitability assessments should integrate climate projections, variability, and extreme events while also incorporating agronomic and quality-related indicators, including sensory analysis of wines and chemical analyses of grapes. The authors also highlight the importance of adaptive management strategies such as irrigation, the adoption of new varieties, or the relocation of vineyards to higher elevations, noting that while initial warming trends may temporarily enhance productivity in certain regions, these benefits are likely to be short-lived. As traditional wine-growing areas face increasing constraints and new regions emerge as suitable for high-quality wine production, the governance dimension becomes central: identifying which stakeholders should be involved and assessing their willingness and capacity to engage will be crucial for equitable and sustainable adaptation pathways in a rapidly changing climate.

Subject of Research: Systematic review of vineyard land suitability assessment methods and their integration of climate change projections

Article Title: Land suitability for vineyards under climate change: a systematic review of methods, tools, and gaps

Article References: Marchese, G., Debolini, M., Bordoni, M., Meisina, C., & Vaglia, V. (2026). Land suitability for vineyards under climate change: a systematic review of methods, tools, and gaps. Frontiers in Agronomy, 8, Article 1839486. https://doi.org/10.3389/fagro.2026.1839486

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.3389/fagro.2026.1839486

Keywords: viticulture, land suitability, climate change, Multi-Criteria Analysis, GIS, vineyard mapping, AHP, agronomy, wine quality, climate projections, remote sensing, sustainability