In the wake of China’s ongoing urban transformation and the broader ambition to forge a resilient dual-cycle economy, the consumption behaviors of urban migrants have emerged as a pivotal concern for policymakers and economists alike. A recent study published in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications meticulously unpacks the intricate dynamics between housing pressure and non-housing consumption among this demographic, shedding light on how access to public services modulates this relationship in the rapidly urbanizing Chinese landscape.
This research leverages data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) to delve deep into the economic realities faced by urban migrants, particularly focusing on the lived experience within the rental housing market. As unique participants in China’s urbanization saga, migrants grapple with a constellation of challenges, chief among them being housing affordability and stability. These pressures fundamentally constrain their discretionary spending on goods and services beyond basic shelter, potentially undermining domestic consumption growth—a vital engine of economic vitality amidst global uncertainties.
Central to the study’s findings is the revelation of a double-threshold effect characterizing how housing pressure influences non-housing household consumption. Housing pressure, framed primarily as rental burden, exerts a crowding-out effect on migrants’ spending beyond shelter needs, but intriguingly, this effect is not linear. Instead, the suppression of non-housing consumption intensifies until a certain threshold level of housing pressure is reached. Beyond this point, the negative impact begins to attenuate, suggesting complex behavioral or structural adaptations that migrant households employ when rent burdens become overwhelmingly high.
Moreover, the researchers identify a critical interplay between public service access and housing pressure. Urban migrants’ level of access to public services—ranging from education and healthcare to cultural amenities—also demonstrates a double-threshold effect, delineating a nuanced boundary within which public services can either exacerbate or alleviate the detrimental impact of housing stress on consumption. Once migrants gain sufficient entry to these services, the crowding-out effect of housing pressure on their consumption notably diminishes, indicating that public services function not merely as welfare provisions but as crucial enablers of economic participation and confidence among vulnerable populations.
This analysis reveals heterogeneity in the crowding-out phenomenon. Households that share rental units and those who have resided long-term (exceeding five years) within urban areas face more pronounced consumption sacrifices owing to housing costs. Such findings underscore the segmented nature of the urban migrant cohort, where different household configurations and residency durations shape economic behavior in distinct ways. The mitigating influence of ample public service access becomes particularly salient within these groups, amplifying its role in fostering welfare and consumption resilience.
Policy implications drawn from this comprehensive examination call for refined, nuanced strategies to bolster migrant economic integration. Foremost among recommendations is the adoption of differentiated housing affordability thresholds. Contrary to the ubiquitous 30% rent-to-income benchmark conventionally employed across populations, migrants exhibit lower tolerance thresholds—around 20%—for rent burdens before consumption is significantly squeezed. Tailoring policy metrics to better capture these sensitivities allows for targeted interventions better aligned with migrants’ realities.
In addition to metric recalibration, income enhancement through improved employment mechanisms emerges as a critical lever to alleviate housing pressure. Upgrading job quality, security, and wage levels enable urban migrants to expand their consumption footprint, thereby driving domestic demand and contributing to economic robustness. Complementing this, localized housing market interventions such as controlled land supply for affordable rental projects, expanded public housing programs, and rent stabilization policies provide structural relief from the acute cost pressures migrants face.
Public service expansion also figures prominently in the policy agenda. Increasing fiscal investment in sectors like education, healthcare, social security, and community infrastructure not only elevates migrants’ living standards but also encourages consumption by reducing uncertainty and fostering inclusion. Cross-sectoral collaborations—between ministries of education, health, culture, social security, and urban development—are essential to operationalize service accessibility improvements, ensuring that migrant children access quality schooling, healthcare remains portable and community-based, inclusive cultural participation is enabled, and social protections extend into informal labor markets.
Such systemic enhancements contribute to the equalization of public services across permanent and migrant populations, a crucial step in overcoming institutional barriers inherent in China’s household registration (hukou) system. By dismantling access disparities, urban migrants can more fully participate in social and economic life, thereby reinforcing confidence in residence stability and increasing their propensity to consume beyond housing necessities.
The study’s methodological approach employing a threshold regression model represents a significant advance in housing economics research, moving beyond linear assumptions to capture the complex, non-monotonic relationships between housing cost burdens and consumption behavior. This nuanced analytical lens informs a richer understanding of how urban migrants navigate financial constraints and adjust spending patterns in response to multifaceted pressures.
Moreover, the investigation broadens the conceptual framework by integrating the dimension of public services as a threshold variable—a relatively underexplored factor in the housing-consumption nexus. This institutionally informed perspective situates housing not only as a financial consideration but also as a gatekeeper of access to critical resources and spatial opportunity structures within urban settings, particularly in developing countries where universal social security systems remain incomplete.
The research also highlights the importance of accounting for group heterogeneity and institutional embeddedness when analyzing consumption outcomes in migration contexts. Recognizing the differentiated impact of housing constraints and service accessibility on diverse migrant subpopulations challenges one-size-fits-all policy prescriptions and demands more refined, evidence-based interventions.
Despite its robust contributions, the study acknowledges certain limitations. The data’s temporal scope—drawn from 2017—may not fully capture more recent shifts in housing markets or public service landscapes which have continued to evolve. Furthermore, data constraints preclude granular analysis of consumption categories, limiting insights into how housing pressures affect specific expenditure types such as food, education, or transportation.
Future research avenues beckon toward multi-wave longitudinal datasets that can dynamically map shifting housing conditions, service accessibility, and consumption patterns over time. Incorporating psychological and behavioral variables—such as consumption expectations and precautionary savings motives—would enrich understanding of the mechanisms underpinning household economic decisions, offering a more comprehensive behavioral economics perspective.
In sum, this work provides a groundbreaking lens into the consumption challenges faced by China’s urban migrants under housing affordability stress and highlights actionable policy pathways to foster equitable economic participation. By recognizing the critical intersection of housing costs, public service accessibility, and institutional constraints, stakeholders can better sculpt sustainable urbanization trajectories that harness migrants’ full economic potential.
As urban China navigates the complexities of growth, migration, and social inclusion, studies like this chart vital courses toward policies that support not only housing security but also the broader well-being and consumption vitality of migrant communities—cornerstones of a resilient and integrated domestic economy.
Subject of Research:
The impact of housing pressure on non-housing consumption among urban migrants in China, with a focus on the mediating role of access to public services.
Article Title:
Effects of urban migrants’ public services access on non-housing consumption under housing pressure in China.
Article References:
Jin, X., Chen, L., Jin, D. et al. Effects of urban migrants’ public services access on non-housing consumption under housing pressure in China. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 12, 1853 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-06125-8
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