As Southeast Asia experiences rapid urbanization, a groundbreaking study has unveiled the intricate linkages between urban growth and surface temperature changes in the region’s capital and secondary cities. This research, soon to appear in the prestigious journal npj Urban Sustainability, provides a comprehensive and nuanced analysis of how expanding urban landscapes influence local climate dynamics, with profound implications for urban resilience and sustainability planning.
Urban growth, characterized by the transformation of natural landscapes into built environments, has long been acknowledged as a major driver of local temperature variations through the urban heat island (UHI) effect. However, the detailed spatial and temporal nuances of this phenomenon, especially within the complex socio-economic and climatic diversity of Southeast Asia, have remained insufficiently documented until now. The study led by Xu, Kamarajugedda, and Lafortezza fills this critical knowledge gap by leveraging cutting-edge remote sensing technologies, sophisticated climate modeling, and urban growth algorithms to explore the relationship between urban expansion and surface temperature changes.
Using an extensive time series of satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) data, the researchers analyzed urban areas in both capital cities—such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila—and their secondary counterparts, including cities like Surabaya, Chiang Mai, and Davao. Their methodological framework employed multi-scale spatial analysis, integrating high-resolution urban land cover datasets with climatic variables to discern persistent patterns and anomalies in UHI intensity over the past two decades.
One of the most salient findings of the study is the pronounced discrepancy in surface temperature increases between capital and secondary cities. Capitals exhibited marked LST increases corresponding to rapid urban growth, with temperature rises frequently exceeding 3 degrees Celsius relative to surrounding rural areas. Conversely, secondary cities demonstrated more heterogeneous patterns, influenced by slower urban expansion rates, land use diversity, and varying degrees of vegetation cover retention. These results underscore the heterogeneity of urban climatology within the same geographic region and emphasize the importance of localized urban climate mitigation strategies.
The analysis also revealed temporal shifts in the intensity of urban heat signatures, which were closely tied to urban morphology. In particular, compact urban forms with high impervious surface fractions were associated with steep nocturnal temperature elevating effects, as heat retained by materials like concrete and asphalt was slow to dissipate. Conversely, peri-urban zones with interspersed green spaces exhibited moderated temperature increases, highlighting the buffering capacity of urban vegetation.
Crucially, the study advances the field by moving beyond traditional surface temperature assessments to include the role of socio-economic drivers shaping urban expansion patterns. By incorporating demographic growth trends, economic development indicators, and infrastructure deployment data, the researchers elucidated the feedback loops between human activity and thermal environment changes. This interplay suggests that policies focusing solely on urban morphology may overlook critical socio-environmental dimensions influencing UHI phenomena.
In addition to the empirical findings, the research team developed predictive models to project future urban surface temperature trajectories under different urban growth scenarios. These scenario-based projections suggest that unchecked urban sprawl, especially in secondary cities experiencing accelerated industrialization, could exacerbate surface temperature increases by up to 4 degrees Celsius by 2040. The policy implications of these projections are profound, indicating urgent need for sustainable urban planning frameworks that integrate temperature mitigation measures alongside economic development objectives.
One of the novel contributions of the study lies in emphasizing the importance of secondary cities, which have hitherto received less attention compared to major metropolitan capitals. Secondary cities constitute vital nodes of economic activity and population growth, and this research demonstrates that their evolving urban landscapes play a pivotal role in the regional climate system. As these urban centers expand, their contribution to cumulative regional heat stress becomes increasingly significant.
From a technical perspective, the researchers employed a multi-source data fusion approach. They integrated MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and Landsat satellite data to achieve both temporal continuity and spatial resolution required for fine-scale urban climate analysis. Advanced machine learning algorithms were deployed to classify urban land cover with high accuracy, while time-series analysis techniques isolated underlying trends in surface temperature changes amidst seasonal variability.
The study further expands on the mechanisms underlying surface temperature change by dissecting land cover dynamics. It was observed that the replacement of vegetated land covers with impervious surfaces like roads and buildings dramatically alters surface energy balances. Reduced evapotranspiration combined with increased heat absorption results in higher daytime temperatures and suppressed nocturnal cooling, reinforcing persistent urban warming patterns.
Beyond the physical climatology, the research emphasizes the human health and environmental justice aspects of urban temperature increases. Elevated urban temperatures exacerbate heat-related morbidity and mortality, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations with limited access to cooling infrastructure. The findings call for integrative approaches that couple urban greening initiatives, improved building designs, and equitable access to urban amenities to mitigate heat exposure.
In light of climate change projections, the study’s insights carry even greater urgency. With rising baseline global temperatures, the compounding effects of urbanization-driven surface temperature increases could challenge adaptation capacities in densely populated Southeast Asian cities. Policymakers and urban planners are urged to incorporate these findings into climate resilience strategies, prioritizing interventions such as green infrastructure, reflective building materials, and enhanced urban ventilation corridors.
The study also engages critically with the limitations of current urban climate modeling, advocating for more granular data collection and dynamic modeling frameworks that capture rapid urban development processes in evolving cities. It underlines the necessity of cross-disciplinary collaboration—bridging remote sensing, urban planning, climatology, and social sciences—to develop holistic solutions addressing urban heat challenges.
In conclusion, this pioneering research elucidates the intimate interconnection between urban growth and surface temperature dynamics in Southeast Asia’s rapidly expanding cities. By providing robust empirical evidence, sophisticated analytical techniques, and forward-looking scenario models, this work lays a foundation for evidence-based urban sustainability policies that can mitigate heat stress, promote livability, and enhance resilience in one of the world’s most vulnerable regions.
As urbanization continues unabated, studies like this spotlight the critical role of informed planning and proactive interventions to harmonize urban development with environmental stewardship. The nexus of urban growth and climate impact is a defining challenge of the 21st century, and this research exemplifies the innovative approaches necessary to navigate this complex terrain.
Subject of Research: Linkages between urban growth and surface temperature changes in Southeast Asian capital and secondary cities.
Article Title: Linking urban growth and surface temperature change in capital and secondary cities of Southeast Asia.
Article References:
Xu, R., Kamarajugedda, S.A., Lafortezza, R. et al. Linking urban growth and surface temperature change in capital and secondary cities of Southeast Asia. npj Urban Sustainability (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-026-00336-x
Image Credits: AI Generated
