Hidden Weather Regimes Reveal Chile’s Wet Winters Are Becoming Shorter
A hybrid Hidden Markov–copula framework identifies five rainfall regimes across Chile and shows the wettest winter regime is persisting significantly ...
Tag: probabilistic forecasting
Physics-Guided AI Delivers Non-Crossing Probabilistic Forecasts for Distributed Solar Clusters
Zhejiang University researchers report a physics-guided framework combining generative imputation, dynamic graph attention, and a constrained decoder that achieved zero ...
AI Diffusion Models Paint Sharper Pictures of Flu Season Futures
A new diffusion-model-based tool called Influpaint encodes influenza seasons as spatiotemporal images and generates competitive, probabilistic forecasts of epidemic trajectories ...
Why the Forecasts Missed the Deadly Texas Flood of July 2025
A new analysis shows that misplaced rainfall forecasts and a failed USGS gauge caused operational models to severely underpredict the ...
Generative AI turns coarse climate models into sharp regional risk maps
A new generative AI framework called GenFocal transforms coarse global climate model output into statistically accurate fine-scale regional weather, capturing ...
Why Ignoring Uncertainty in Natural Hazard Forecasts Would Be Absurd, Scientists Warn
A multidisciplinary task force argues that natural hazard sciences must adopt a shared hierarchy of uncertainties and complete forecasts that ...
Wavelet-Guided Diffusion Model Sharpens Urban Traffic Flow Forecasts
Researchers at Linyi University have combined wavelet decomposition with denoising diffusion models to forecast urban traffic flow more accurately across ...
Forecasting the Ocean’s Fever: How Well Can We Predict Indian Ocean Marine Heatwaves a Month Ahead?
A new evaluation of ECMWF subseasonal reforecasts shows that marine heatwaves in the tropical Indian Ocean can be predicted up ...
AI Ensemble Learns to Predict Which Satellites Are Truly About to Collide
A hybrid Monte Carlo and ensemble machine learning framework achieves an F2 score of 0.808 and AUC-ROC of 0.981 on ...
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Mothers who receive childcare support from maternal grandparents show more parental warmth, finds NTU Singapore study
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University of Seville Breaks 120-Year-Old Mystery, Revises a Key Einstein Concept
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Bee body mass, pathogens and local climate influence heat tolerance
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Researchers record first-ever images and data of a shark experiencing a boat strike
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Groundbreaking Clinical Trial Reveals Lubiprostone Enhances Kidney Function
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