Machine Learning and Ground Sensors Track Shifting Northeast Asian Aerosol Regimes
A long-term analysis of AERONET observations from 2012 to 2024 reveals declining urban pollution and shifting atmospheric aerosol optical regimes ...
Tag: forecasting
SARIMA Model Outperforms Hybrid Neural Network in Accident Forecasts
Researchers from the Czech Republic have demonstrated that a traditional statistical model known as Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) ...
Machine Learning Accurately Forecasts Monthly Malaria Incidence Across Southeastern Senegal Districts
Researchers evaluated three gradient boosting algorithms on six years of epidemiological and climatic data from southeastern Senegal, identifying an optimized ...
Groundwater Forecast Accuracy Limited by System Instability
A new study in Applied Water Science shows that hydrogeological stability, not model complexity, is the primary control on groundwater ...
New Model Maps Where Foreign Residents Settle Across Italy’s Municipalities
A new spatio-temporal blind source separation model combined with kriging improved forecasts of foreign population shares across 7,606 Italian municipalities ...
Nonlinear Regime-Dependent Logistic Models Enhance Recession Forecasting Accuracy in Latvia
A study of Latvian macroeconomic data shows that regime-dependent logistic models enhance recession forecasting accuracy and in-sample fit over classical ...
Six-Layer Assurance Chain Proposed to Keep Adaptive Automation Honest About Uncertain Operator Evidence
A new Conceptual Analysis proposes a six-layer architecture with evidentiary gates that constrain how uncertain operator-state evidence may progress from ...
Energy Uncertainty Index Outperforms Oil Prices in Forecasting US State Stock Volatility
A GARCH-MIDAS study finds a broad energy uncertainty index beats a realized-volatility benchmark in 37 of 50 US states, while ...
Energy price shocks show no clear asymmetric effect on ASEAN low-carbon electricity
A panel study of ten ASEAN economies finds only a marginally significant short-run link between rising international energy prices and ...
Prediction markets on floods and droughts raise ethical alarms for forecasting agencies
A new analysis argues that real-money prediction markets settling on hydrologic forecasts could turn public scientific agencies into financial settlement ...
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Mothers who receive childcare support from maternal grandparents show more parental warmth, finds NTU Singapore study
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University of Seville Breaks 120-Year-Old Mystery, Revises a Key Einstein Concept
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Bee body mass, pathogens and local climate influence heat tolerance
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Researchers record first-ever images and data of a shark experiencing a boat strike
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Groundbreaking Clinical Trial Reveals Lubiprostone Enhances Kidney Function
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