Study Finds Turkish Space Program Faces Severe Second-Stage Funding Shortfalls

A budgetary analysis evaluating the financial feasibility of the Turkish Space Agency’s ten-year national roadmap indicates that while initial exploratory projects remain funded, the country has not committed the public resources required to execute its more ambitious second phase. Published in the European Journal of Futures Research, the study investigates the fiscal sustainability of the Turkish National Space Program launched in February 2021. Although Türkiye ranks among the twenty largest global economies, dedicated research examining the public expenditure and institutional capacity underpinning its space exploration ambitions has remained scarce. By compiling central government budget laws and national public investment programs across multiple fiscal cycles, the investigation assesses whether allocated public funds match the agency’s declared strategic objectives, which include landing on the Moon, building an independent orbital spaceport, and establishing a regional satellite navigation architecture.

The Turkish Space Agency was established by presidential decree on December 13, 2018, inheriting a national technological foundation that had previously concentrated on satellite engineering under the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye. Following a multi-year period without independent operational missions, the government unveiled a ten-year plan structured around ten strategic targets. These goals comprise consolidating domestic satellite production, landing a rover on the lunar surface, establishing a regional positioning and timing system, constructing an orbital spaceport, sending an astronaut to the International Space Station, establishing space weather infrastructure, acquiring space object tracking capabilities, fostering a domestic industrial ecosystem, developing human capital, and constructing a dedicated space technology development zone. However, initial funding levels remained modest relative to these expansive milestones, with the agency receiving a direct central allocation of only 450,000 dollars in 2020 while national space research and development spending totaled slightly more than 2.6 million dollars.

To evaluate whether public funding aligns with operational requirements, the study modeled the projected expenditures of four central initiatives by benchmarking comparable missions conducted by other national space agencies and commercial providers. The most ambitious program objective involves a two-stage lunar exploration initiative. The initial phase, originally planned for 2023 but subsequently delayed beyond 2025, intends to reach the Moon through a deliberate hard impact landing using a domestically engineered hybrid rocket. Because the Turkish Space Agency lacks domestic orbital launch infrastructure, executing this first flight requires contracting commercial launch services, with mission costs estimated at 67 million dollars based on standard SpaceX Falcon 9 launch pricing. The subsequent second phase, projected for 2028, targets a soft scientific touchdown deploying a domestically engineered rover to conduct lunar surface research.

Benchmark comparisons demonstrate that lunar missions demand substantial technological maturity and financial commitment. Historically, only India and Israel have conducted successful lunar surface landings outside the established legacy space powers and the European Space Agency. India’s Chandrayaan-2 orbital and surface mission, completed in 2019 using indigenous launch vehicles and spaceport infrastructure, cost 140 million dollars through an established space agency operating on an annual budget of 1.5 billion dollars with over 20,000 employees. India subsequently achieved a soft landing with Chandrayaan-3 in August 2023 at an announced mission cost of 75 million dollars, while Israel’s Beresheet lander cost 100 million dollars including commercial Falcon 9 launch fees. Because Türkiye must outsource atmospheric launch capability in its first lunar phase and develop complex rover instrumentation for its second phase, researchers concluded that the agency is unlikely to complete its two-stage lunar program at a lower cost than the Indian or Israeli precedents.

The study also assessed the financial requirements of constructing an independent space launch facility. Because Türkiye’s geographic location presents unfavorable orbital launch inclinations, government leadership selected Somalia as the intended host nation for a national spaceport designed to support both vertical and horizontal launches for micro-satellite market payloads and future lunar rockets. International construction comparisons illustrate significant capital demands for modern launch sites. In the United Kingdom, the SaxaVord Spaceport under construction in Scotland required initial expenditures of 43 million pounds by late 2023 with projections rising to 100 million pounds across five years to support payloads up to 1,000 kilograms. In the United States, the New Mexico Space Authority committed 220 million dollars to Spaceport America, while the Virginia Commercial Space Flight Authority invested approximately 130 million dollars into launch pad infrastructure at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport. Given the logistical requirements of establishing and leasing extraterritorial facilities abroad, the study determined that developing a Somali launch site will demand funding comparable to or exceeding these international benchmarks.

Capital intensity remains equally pronounced for independent navigation systems. The Turkish National Space Program envisions a regional positioning and timing system targeting strategic completion by 2031 to serve national defense priorities alongside agricultural, urban planning, and autonomous transportation sectors. Globally, only two operational regional positioning systems exist. The Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System, spanning seven spacecraft across a 1,500-kilometer regional radius, was approved in 2006 with a 210 million dollar budget before ultimate development costs rose to 527.9 million dollars by 2014. Similarly, Japan’s Quasi-Zenith Satellite System entailed capital outlays ranging from 170 billion yen, or 122 million dollars, for a four-satellite constellation to 260 billion yen, or 186 million dollars, for seven satellites. Although Turkish industry has accumulated manufacturing experience through defense-oriented observation satellites including Göktürk-1, Göktürk-2, and İMECE, establishing an independent multi-satellite positioning constellation represents an expenditure burden rivaling established regional systems.

Against these technical benchmarks, the researcher examined actual budget allocations approved between 2021 and 2026, converted to United States dollars to reflect international procurement costs and account for domestic currency devaluation. In 2022, parliament approved an operational central budget allocation of approximately 3.6 million dollars, while capital funding was channeled separately through the national public investment program at 168 million dollars. A supplementary budget law passed in July 2022 subsequently released slightly more than 46 million dollars of this investment program, transferring the capital directly to the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye to cover first-phase space program activities. Across the complete five-year window spanning 2022 to 2026, central government budget allocations are projected to provide 180 million dollars to the space agency, with all committed funding formally earmarked for first-stage projects.

Beyond direct parliamentary appropriations, the agency receives legally mandated inter-institutional transfers classified under administrative accounting as own income. Under Article 8 of its founding decree, the agency collects statutorily guaranteed funding from external public bodies, including the Directorate General of Civil Aviation, the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye, and the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure, the latter transferring 23.7 million dollars in 2021 and 15.2 million dollars in 2022. For fiscal year 2023, self-generated institutional income was projected to exceed 15.8 million dollars. While these statutory transfers provide supplemental operating resources, the resulting revenue totals remain modest relative to the cumulative capital requirements of deep-space exploration and orbital infrastructure development.

Analysis of agency spending patterns between 2022 and 2026 reveals an administrative structure focused on coordination rather than direct operational engineering. In national budgetary accounting, capital transfers designate funds shifted between public bodies for long-term project execution. Conversely, internal personnel expenditures remain consistently low, reflecting an administrative workforce of only 60 personnel documented in August 2022, composed predominantly of support staff rather than large engineering divisions. This spending profile confirms that the agency functions primarily as a financing and coordinating body rather than a fully integrated technical operator.

Examining completed program milestones highlights a sharp division between pilot initiatives and long-term goals. To date, the agency’s primary operational success has been sending a Turkish astronaut to the International Space Station, completed in January 2024 through a commercial contract with Axiom Space. Commercial spaceflight missions typically command baseline rates of 55 million dollars per astronaut, with additional fees levied by NASA for onboard life support, food, atmospheric maintenance, data access, and storage. Having conducted two astronaut flights, the agency expended at least 110 million dollars on human spaceflight. Coupled with the 180 million dollars in cumulative government allocations, available public funding has sufficed to finance early-stage activities. However, the hard-landing lunar mission has experienced structural postponement past 2025, and no dedicated funding lines have been created for the soft-landing rover, the Somali spaceport, or the regional satellite navigation system.

Significant macroeconomic and market barriers further constrain the agency’s capacity to finance upcoming phases through commercial revenue generation. Rapid inflation, which registered 64.77 percent in 2023 and 44.38 percent in 2024, combined with persistent Turkish Lira depreciation, erodes purchasing power for international components and forces government-wide public spending restraint. Furthermore, opportunities to commercialize domestic space assets face structural limits. The global launch market exhibits localized overcapacity, international dual-use export controls restrict the cross-border sale of sensitive rocket and satellite technologies, and the regional positioning system will not reach completion before the ten-year program concludes in 2031. Consequently, commercial self-funding cannot offset the fiscal deficits confronting the program’s second stage.

In comparative international terms, Türkiye’s public space expenditures remain limited when evaluated against major actors within the 570 billion dollar global space economy. In 2024, public civil budgets totaled 25.383 billion dollars for NASA, 7.79 billion dollars for the European Space Agency, 2.27 billion dollars for France, 1.6 billion dollars for Italy, and 720 million dollars for South Korea. While newly established entities such as the United Arab Emirates Space Agency have mobilized over 6 billion dollars in spending to achieve orbital Mars insertion and asteroid missions through international scientific partnerships, the Turkish Space Agency operates under much tighter fiscal limits. Although indirect defense spending through defense contractors like ASELSAN, TUSAŞ, and Roketsan may support dual-use capabilities, the study concludes that without a sustained, multi-year increase in dedicated public capital, Türkiye will struggle to transition its ambitious national space vision into operational reality.

Subject of Research: Fiscal feasibility of the Turkish Space Agency's ten-year national space program

Article Title: From vision to reality: can public funding sustain Türkiye’s ambitious 10-year space program?

Article References: Emen, T. (2025). From vision to reality: can public funding sustain Türkiye’s ambitious 10-year space program?. European Journal of Futures Research, 13(1), Article 10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-025-00255-7

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1186/s40309-025-00255-7

Keywords: Turkish Space Agency, National Space Program, Public Investment Program, Space Budget Analysis, Lunar Mission, DeltaV Space Technologies, Spaceport Construction, Regional Positioning System, International Space Station, Axiom Space, Capital Transfers, Space Economics, TÜBİTAK, Satellite Navigation, Global Space Economy, Fiscal Sustainability, Space Infrastructure