The landscape of global public opinion towards the United States has been intricately shaped by the perception of its democratic ideals. In recent years, particularly surrounding the events of January 6, 2021, when a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol, concerns about the erosion of democracy within the U.S. have intensified. While a plethora of research has delved into public opinion across the United States, a significant gap remains regarding how this internal struggle impacts international perspectives and relations. The implications of these dynamics stretch far beyond mere public sentiment, touching on the broader concept of "soft power," a term popularized by political scientist Joseph Nye.
Soft power not only refers to a country’s appeal through its cultural and political values but also emphasizes the role of democratic governance as a tool for fostering international alliances and partnerships. Nye posits that a nation’s ability to persuade and engage in cooperation is closely linked to how its democracy is perceived abroad. As such, the way international communities interpret the integrity of U.S. democratic processes directly influences their willingness to engage with the U.S. on various fronts, including foreign policy collaboration.
To explore these pivotal questions, a research team comprised of experts from esteemed institutions such as Dartmouth College, the Australian National University, and Florida State University undertook an ambitious study. Their objective was clear: to investigate how perceptions of democratic decline in the U.S. affect favorability ratings among citizens in other democracies. Conducting their research through several thoughtfully designed survey experiments throughout 2023 and 2024, the researchers garnered responses from over 11,800 participants across twelve democracies, spanning continents including North America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania.
In one of the pivotal phases of their research, participants from diverse nations—specifically Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom—were prompted to evaluate their views on the U.S. favorably or unfavorably using a four-point scale. Importantly, half of the respondents were exposed to a hypothetical overview detailing the perceived decline of democracy in the U.S., including references to the Capitol riot and new voter suppression laws. The intent behind this design was to separate the impact of generic information on democratic decline from the influence of individual political figures.
Subsequent surveys focused on New Zealand and involved respondents from Japan, India, and South Korea, countries identified as vital partners for U.S. interests within the Indo-Pacific region. In these surveys, participants were once again divided into groups, with one group receiving information pertaining to U.S. democratic erosion while another was informed about the U.S. economy’s hypothetical decline. The defining aspect of the research was its deliberate intention to gauge public sentiment regarding American democracy regardless of the current political leadership, exemplifying a commitment to clarity and objectivity.
The findings of this study were both illuminating and unexpected. Across all three surveys, it became evident that exposure to information about U.S. democratic backsliding resulted in a less favorable opinion of the U.S. among international respondents. This demonstrates a significant but nuanced shift in perception that carries substantial implications for U.S. diplomatic endeavors and international relations. By emphasizing the erosion of democratic principles, the study highlights a fragile aspect of U.S. soft power and indicates potential challenges in maintaining favorable relations with allied nations.
However, a surprising outcome from the research was the resilience of cooperation policies despite negative perceptions of U.S. democracy. Respondents who were informed about democratic backsliding expressed diminished favorability towards the U.S., yet they did not change their support for policies favoring collaboration. This finding stands in stark contrast to Nye’s theoretical framework, which predicts that a decline in a nation’s soft power, largely rooted in its democratic allure, would adversely affect its capacity to foster international cooperation. The apparent contradiction invites further investigation into the complexities of international relations and the interplay between perception and policy.
As Yusaku Horiuchi, one of the study’s co-authors and a renowned professor at Dartmouth, articulates the implications of these findings, he underscores the uniqueness of capturing public opinion at a time of notable democratic anxiety within the U.S. The distinction between perceptions of democracy and the actual efficacy of international partnerships is pivotal. Horiuchi raises compelling questions about the potential shifts in these dynamics under different political administrations, suggesting that future studies might yield differing outcomes in the context of political leadership changes.
Moreover, the research contrasts perceptions of democratic backsliding with economic downturns—another potential factor influencing international public opinion. Intriguingly, the study reveals that participants did not view a hypothetical report signaling a decline in the U.S. economy as significantly influential in shaping their favorability toward the U.S. This affirms that the robustness of democratic institutions may resonate more deeply with global audiences than economic performance, thus aligning public sentiment on crucial democratic ideals as a cornerstone of U.S. diplomatic standing.
Understanding the nuances of public perceptions across democracies establishes a foundational relevance for U.S. foreign policy and international relations. The resilience of support for cooperation, even amid decreased favorability, suggests that there might be deeper cultural or global connections influencing international alliances. As noted by Kathleen Powers, another co-author of the study, the intricate interplay of democratic vitality and international cooperation remains a critical area of exploration for scholars and policymakers alike.
The findings of this research contribute to a broader dialogue surrounding democratic solidarity and the expectations among democracies to support each other in times of conflict or crisis. As the researchers continue to explore dimensions of international public opinion through additional studies, they aim to shed light on how political changes within one democracy can reverberate through global networks. The implications of this research are paramount, providing insights that not only inform current understandings of U.S. diplomatic relations but also signal potential shifts that could arise in the evolving landscape of global democracy and international cooperation.
In conclusion, the study underscores a crucial dimension of current global dynamics—the relationship between perceptions of democracy and international policy preferences. By illuminating how democratic backsliding impacts favorability toward the U.S. while revealing the resilience of cooperative policy support, it brings to light the complexities of soft power in an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape. The challenge remains for the U.S. and its partners to navigate these intricate perceptions, ensuring that democratic principles remain central to their international endeavors.
Subject of Research: The impact of U.S. democratic backsliding on global public opinion and cooperative policies.
Article Title: Democratic backsliding damages favorable U.S. image among the global public.
News Publication Date: 28-Mar-2025.
Web References: DOI Link
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Keywords: Democracy, Public Opinion, International Relations, U.S. Foreign Policy, Soft Power, Democratic Backsliding, Cooperative Policy, Global Perspectives.
