The world’s atmosphere is poised to become increasingly turbulent in the coming decades, as ongoing climate change fundamentally alters the behavior of the jet streams—the high-altitude, fast-moving air currents that encircle the planet. Recent research conducted by the University of Reading has revealed that rising global temperatures will lead to more severe and frequent episodes of clear-air turbulence, a phenomenon that poses serious risks to aviation safety and challenges for the airline industry worldwide.
Building on prior investigations that identified a historical increase in turbulence correlating with global warming over the past 40 years, this latest study leverages 26 state-of-the-art global climate models to investigate how warming affects atmospheric dynamics at cruising altitudes—typically around 35,000 feet. These models simulate future climate and atmospheric conditions with unprecedented detail, enabling researchers to quantify changes in jet stream velocity gradients and atmospheric stability that directly influence turbulence intensity.
Jet streams, essentially narrow bands of strong winds in the upper atmosphere, serve as dynamic highways for aircraft but also as regions prone to intense wind shear—variations in wind speed or direction over short vertical distances. Such wind shear is a primary driver of clear-air turbulence, which unlike turbulence caused by visible weather phenomena, such as storms or clouds, remains invisible and unpredictable. Pilots cannot detect clear-air turbulence on standard radar, making it particularly hazardous for passengers and crew alike.
The University of Reading study, published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, found that from 2015 to 2100, wind shear along the jet streams is projected to increase by approximately 16 to 27 percent. Simultaneously, the atmosphere at typical aircraft cruising altitudes is expected to become 10 to 20 percent less stable. This combination of stronger wind shear and reduced atmospheric stability creates highly favorable conditions for amplified turbulence worldwide, indicating a significant rise in the prevalence and intensity of clear-air turbulence events.
Lead author Joana Medeiros, a PhD researcher specializing in atmospheric physics, explains that these changes essentially mean the atmosphere’s upper layers will become more “energetic” and prone to instability. “Increased wind shear effectively injects more mechanical energy into the atmosphere, while the reduced stability lowers the threshold for turbulence generation,” Medeiros notes. This synergy intensifies the sudden jolts that passengers experience mid-flight, often without warning.
Professor Paul Williams, co-author and expert in atmospheric dynamics, highlights the broader implications for aviation safety and operations. “We have witnessed an alarming rise in severe turbulence incidents in recent years, with some resulting in injuries and, tragically, fatalities. Pilots will increasingly need to keep passengers belted for longer durations, and cabin crews may be compelled to suspend service more frequently,” Williams states. He also points to the urgent need for technological innovation: airlines must develop and deploy more sophisticated turbulence detection and forecasting systems to anticipate and mitigate these invisible threats.
Notably, the study examines the scenarios across a spectrum of greenhouse gas emissions, distinguishing between moderate and high-emission pathways. The findings consistently indicate that the exacerbation of turbulence is most severe under the highest emissions scenarios, underscoring the critical role of global climate policy and emissions reductions in mitigating aviation turbulence risks. Furthermore, this atmospheric destabilization is projected to impact both hemispheres, revealing a global scale challenge that transcends regional boundaries.
From an economic perspective, turbulence represents a significant cost burden for the airline industry. Estimates from the Research Applications Laboratory in the United States suggest that turbulence-related disruptions account for annual losses ranging from $150 million to $500 million within the U.S. alone. These costs arise from additional fuel use due to rerouting, increased flight times, maintenance for damage related to turbulence, and compensation for injuries and delays.
Such projected turbulence increases add a new dimension to the ongoing climate change narrative, stressing not only environmental and ecological impacts but also profound ramifications for human safety and industrial operations in the aviation sector. Airlines, regulators, and researchers are now compelled to re-evaluate risk management strategies in light of a more volatile atmospheric environment.
The physical mechanisms driving these changes boil down to how climate warming influences the temperature gradients and wind shear at high altitudes. Jet streams form due to differential heating between the equator and poles; as the planet warms, these temperature gradients alter, leading to variable impacts on the velocity and turbulence characteristics of these critical air currents. Additionally, warming contributes to a delicate balance of atmospheric stability parameters—specifically, the Richardson number, a dimensionless number that gauges turbulence potential, which decreases as stability weakens.
This research marks a profound advance in connecting climate model projections directly with aviation meteorology, an area that has historically faced a dearth of comprehensive data. By integrating sophisticated climate model outputs with turbulence dynamics, the University of Reading team provides a nuanced forecast of how the atmosphere’s character will morph during the 21st century.
As commercial aviation grows and air traffic volume rebounds post-pandemic, the frequency of encountering stronger turbulence is anticipated to climb, raising concerns not only for passenger comfort but for safety protocols and aircrew workload. Clear-air turbulence-induced injuries often occur when seatbelt signs are off, catching passengers and crew unprepared. Enhanced forecasting capabilities could reshape flight planning and in-flight operations, allowing reroutes around turbulence “hot spots” and improved turbulence avoidance technologies.
In summary, this groundbreaking study spotlights the intersection of climate science and aviation safety, revealing that the skies of tomorrow may be more volatile than ever before. With wind shear intensifying and atmospheric stability declining at cruising altitudes across the globe, clear-air turbulence is set to pose heightened risks to millions of flights annually. Addressing this challenge calls for coordinated global efforts in climate mitigation, technological innovation, and rigorous scientific inquiry.
As researchers continue to unravel the complexities of upper-atmospheric changes, the aviation industry must brace for a future in which turbulence becomes a more formidable and routine adversary in the skies. The University of Reading’s work stands as a crucial milestone in understanding and anticipating these evolving threats, advocating for proactive measures that safeguard passengers and crews against the invisible turbulence lurking in the rapidly warming atmosphere.
Subject of Research: Future trends in atmospheric turbulence related to climate change and their implications for aviation safety
Article Title: Future Trends in Upper-Atmospheric Shear Instability from Climate Change
News Publication Date: 27-Aug-2025
Web References:
- University of Reading Aviation Turbulence Study
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Article DOI
- Research Applications Laboratory Turbulence Costs
References:
Medeiros, J., & Williams, P. (2025). Future Trends in Upper-Atmospheric Shear Instability from Climate Change. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-24-0283.1
Keywords: Climate change, clear-air turbulence, jet streams, wind shear, atmospheric stability, aviation safety, greenhouse gas emissions, turbulence forecasting, upper atmosphere, airline economics
