Protocol Maps Arctic Borealisation Evidence for Society

Researchers at Anglia Ruskin University have published a detailed protocol for a systematic map designed to synthesize existing evidence on the interlinkages between ecological and societal impacts of Arctic borealisation. The study, led by Kate Baker, Vera Helene Hausner, Jennifer Ramsay, and Helen C. Wheeler, aims to address a critical gap in the scientific literature where the societal consequences of climate-driven ecological shifts have not been systematically reviewed. By focusing specifically on borealisation, the team seeks to create a manageable scope that relates to one suite of ecological impacts of climate change and their subsequent effects on human communities, thereby supporting current assessments by the Arctic Council working groups on the societal and ecological impacts of climate change.

Borealisation is defined in the protocol as a process whereby the species, communities, and ecological processes of the Arctic transform to resemble those of more boreal lower latitudes. This phenomenon involves the northward movement of species, an increase in the presence and density of species commonly associated with the more southerly boreal region, and changes in the traits of Arctic species to resemble those living in boreal areas. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recognizes the northward movement of species as a significant global phenomenon in response to climate warming, with very high confidence that half of the species assessed globally have either shifted their distributions polewards or to higher elevations. This fundamental restructuring of physical and ecological processes is observed across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems, fundamentally transforming Arctic ecosystems.

The protocol outlines a rigorous methodology following the guidelines set out by the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence. The research team will conduct a comprehensive search of both peer-reviewed and grey literature using a range of bibliographic databases, websites, and search engines. The search strategy employs a pre-defined search string with Boolean operators, specifically designed to balance specificity and sensitivity. This approach was tested through a scoping exercise in Web of Science and Scopus, where twenty-four different versions of the search string were trialled to ensure that all relevant key articles were returned while minimizing the number of irrelevant documents. The selected search strings returned a total of 24,386 reports in Web of Science and 33,933 in Scopus, indicating a substantial body of literature that requires careful screening.

Screening of the search results will be conducted in two stages to ensure relevance according to specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. The first stage involves a screen of titles and abstracts, while the second stage includes full-text screening of eligible articles. To ensure the reliability of the screening process and consistency of decisions, a selection of records will be screened by two reviewers independently. A Cohen’s kappa test will be undertaken to check the conformity between both reviewers, with kappa results over 0.6 deemed an appropriate level of agreement. Any disparities will be discussed and resolved, and the process will be repeated until the required level of inter-reviewer reliability is achieved. This dual-reviewer approach is also applied at the coding stage, where fifteen articles will be coded by two reviewers to refine coding guidelines and clarify decisions.

The eligibility criteria for the systematic map are defined by Population, Exposure, Comparator, and Outcome parameters. The population includes all Arctic habitats, such as terrestrial, freshwater, marine, and coastal environments, as well as all human populations impacted by Arctic change, whether residing inside or outside the Arctic. The exposure is borealisation of the Arctic, and the comparator is the state before borealisation occurred or the use of space for time substitution. The outcome focuses on societal impacts on human communities, including changes in human activities, health, wellbeing, place-attachment, resilience, and vulnerability. Studies that document only ecological impacts without societal implications will be excluded from the primary map but flagged for further analysis to understand the proportion of borealisation papers that mention societal impacts.

The protocol emphasizes the importance of engaging stakeholders and rightsholders throughout the research process. The research team has identified various groups, including representatives from Indigenous Arctic communities, other local communities, research communities, funders, and governmental organizations. These stakeholders will be engaged at two stages: prior to commencing coding to provide feedback on the protocol, and while creating presentations and visualizations to ensure the map is usable and relevant for end users. The engagement strategy includes individual requests for feedback via email, online meetings, and opportunities for virtual and in-person presentations at workshops. This approach aims to mitigate biases that can occur through sub-sampling and ensures that the perspectives of those most affected by borealisation are incorporated into the research design and outputs.

The primary research question guiding the systematic map is: “What evidence exists on the interlinkages between ecological and societal impacts of borealisation of the Arctic?” Secondary questions explore the geographic distribution of evidence, the main categories of societal impacts, the socio-ecological linkages associated with borealisation, and the disciplinary, methodological, and geographic biases in current research. The map will also identify knowledge gaps and clusters in the research base. By addressing these questions, the systematic map will provide a searchable database with accompanying visual outputs and a narrative synthesis that outlines the range and distribution of evidence. This will help identify potential biases and areas for further research, ultimately informing priorities for future studies and enabling a better understanding of the type and nature of ecological and societal information in papers that assess societal impacts of borealisation.

The outputs of the systematic map are designed to be accessible and useful for a wide range of users, including researchers, decision-makers, and policy developers. The database will allow users to filter, search, and sort the evidence, containing the full coding for each study. Additionally, tables, charts, and statistics will be available to summarize, group, and visualize the evidence. Knowledge gaps and clusters will be shown on an interactive evidence map using EPPI-Mapper software, allowing areas of further research to be identified and discussed. Study locations will be displayed on a GIS map with markers indicating the location and scale category of each study. These visual outputs will help highlight the need for action by tracking the implications of climate change from changes in climate and weather through ecosystem changes to impacts on society.

Limitations of the systematic map include the focus on English language searches, which may result in geographical biases, particularly regarding Russian publications that are under-represented in English-language databases. The protocol acknowledges this limitation and plans to mitigate it by contacting organizations with Arctic area connections that include non-English speaking stakeholders. Additionally, due to limited resources and time constraints, only articles published after 2009 will be reviewed. The search will be updated if the original searches are made more than two years prior to the completion of the review, ensuring that the most recent evidence is included. The systematic map will not critically appraise the quality of individual studies but will code study type and duration to help with study validity assessment in any future systematic reviews.

This protocol represents a significant step toward understanding the complex interlinkages between ecological and societal impacts of Arctic borealisation. By systematically mapping the existing evidence, the research team aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of knowledge and identify areas where further research is needed. The findings will support current assessments by the Arctic Council and provide valuable insights for policymakers and researchers working to address the challenges posed by climate change in the Arctic. The systematic map will not only document the existing evidence but also highlight the need for interdisciplinary collaboration and more rigorous reporting of cross-disciplinary evidence to improve our understanding of the societal impacts of borealisation.

Subject of Research: Systematic map protocol for ecological and societal impacts of Arctic borealisation

Article Title: What evidence exists on the interlinkages between ecological and societal impacts of borealisation of the arctic? A systematic map protocol

Article References: Baker, K., Hausner, V. H., Ramsay, J., & Wheeler, H. C. (2025). What evidence exists on the interlinkages between ecological and societal impacts of borealisation of the arctic? A systematic map protocol. Environmental Evidence, 14(1), Article 15. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13750-025-00367-4

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1186/s13750-025-00367-4

Keywords: Arctic borealisation, Systematic map, Climate change, Societal impacts, Ecological shifts, Arctic Council, Evidence synthesis, Species migration, Indigenous communities, Research protocol, evidence, exists