Perceptions of Nigeria’s development shape where young Nigerians want to migrate, study finds

Young Nigerians who rate their country’s development more favourably are somewhat less likely to say they intend to leave, while the perceived level of development of a destination country strongly shapes whether they would choose it, according to a study published in Comparative Migration Studies.

The study draws on the concept of developmental idealism, which concerns how people evaluate development and how those evaluations relate to life decisions. The authors note that although economic hardship, unemployment and other structural constraints are important drivers of migration aspirations, they do not fully explain why individuals imagine specific destinations as desirable. The research therefore investigates whether respondents’ perceptions of Nigeria’s developmental standing are associated with their intention to leave, and whether perceived development abroad shapes destination preference.

The analysis uses original survey data collected through two complementary surveys of educated Nigerian youth. The pooled dataset contains 835 respondents, of whom 729 aged 15 to 35 form the analytic sample. The researchers combined binary models of migration intention with an alternative-specific conditional logit model of destination choice, allowing them to examine both respondent-level migration intentions and destination-level developmental evaluations within the same framework.

The results point to an asymmetry between the decision to leave and the choice of destination. In a logistic model, higher ratings of Nigeria’s development are negatively associated with migration intention, with an odds ratio of 0.941 and a p-value of 0.047. The corresponding probit estimate, however, is borderline: an average marginal effect of −0.0059 with a p-value of 0.052. This means the evidence that developmental perceptions at home are linked to whether young Nigerians want to leave is weaker and more sensitive to the modelling approach than the destination findings.

By contrast, among respondents who expressed an intention to leave, perceived destination development is strongly associated with destination choice. Each one-point increase in a destination’s development rating is associated with approximately 20 percent higher odds of that destination being selected, with an odds ratio of 1.198 and a p-value below 0.001. The authors conclude that developmental perceptions are more consistently associated with where Nigerian youth want to migrate than with the binary decision of whether to leave at all.

The study extends emerging research linking developmental idealism and migration by examining both origin and destination evaluations in the Nigerian japa context. As an open-access research article published on 10 October 2026, it is being shared early as a peer-reviewed, accepted version that is citable and carries a permanent DOI, subject to further edits before the final version of record. The findings are based on a survey of educated Nigerian youth aged 15 to 35 and describe associations rather than causal effects, so the estimates should be read as relating perceptions to stated intentions and preferences within this population rather than as predictions of actual migration behaviour.

Subject of Research: How developmental perceptions relate to migration intentions and destination choices among Nigerian youth

Article Title: Who wants to Japa, why and where? Developmental idealism, migration aspirations, and destination choice among Nigerian youth

Article References: Olofinyehun, A., & Abimbola Wellington, O. (2026). Who wants to Japa, why and where? Developmental idealism, migration aspirations, and destination choice among Nigerian youth. Comparative Migration Studies. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-026-00592-x

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1186/s40878-026-00592-x

Keywords: Nigeria, migration aspirations, japa, developmental idealism, destination choice, youth, survey research, logistic regression, conditional logit, Comparative Migration Studies, wants, Developmental