In recent years, the Panama Canal has faced unprecedented challenges that threaten to disrupt one of the world’s most vital maritime trade routes. In 2023, the canal experienced one of the most severe droughts recorded in its history. This drought dramatically lowered water levels in the freshwater sources that supply the canal, most notably Gatún Lake. The resulting scarcity in water volume hampered canal operations, reducing daily ship transit capacity by approximately 30 percent. This emerging crisis raises significant concerns about the future reliability of the canal in an era of increasing climate variability and global warming.
Researchers led by Samuel Muñoz from Northeastern University have developed advanced computational models to project how climate change, particularly from elevated greenhouse gas emissions, might impact the hydrology of the Panama Canal system over the coming decades. Their study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, employs simulations of meteorological variables such as precipitation and evaporation to anticipate future water levels under various emissions scenarios. The results indicate a dire future where drought conditions, like those recently experienced, could become a new, frequent norm without substantial emissions mitigation.
Central to the Panama Canal’s operation is Gatún Lake, a large man-made freshwater reservoir created during the canal’s construction and a crucial water source not only for navigation but also for supplying domestic water to adjacent urban populations in Panama City and Colón. The canal’s lock system relies heavily on abundant freshwater to raise and lower ships between oceanic elevations, with each lock cycle consuming over 26 million gallons of water. The integrity of the canal’s operations is, therefore, intricately tied to the sustained water availability in Gatún Lake and associated watersheds.
The 2023 drought led to unprecedented reductions in the lake’s water level—falling nearly 2 meters (about 6 feet) compared to the previous year, according to data reported by the Woodwell Climate Research Center. As a consequence, canal authorities had to limit daily ship transits from the usual 38 to as low as 22, while also imposing decreases in cargo weight to adapt to diminished lock water volumes. Such operational constraints pose risks not only to Panama’s economy but also to global supply chains, given the canal’s role in connecting the Atlantic and Pacific shipping lanes.
Muñoz and his colleagues employed a sophisticated hydrological model incorporating projected scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions through the end of the 21st century. These scenarios span from aggressive mitigation strategies aligning with international climate targets to unmitigated or high emissions pathways reflecting current global trends and worst-case outcomes. The model integrates diverse climate variables to simulate changes in rainfall patterns, temperature-driven evaporation, and watershed hydrology, providing robust projections of future water availability for the canal.
One of the study’s most alarming findings is a projected doubling in the frequency and intensity of droughts affecting the Gatún Lake watershed by century’s end under high emissions scenarios. The worsening droughts are primarily driven by sharp declines in rainfall during Panama’s wet season—especially from May to August—with precipitation reductions estimated at nearly 50 millimeters per month during these critical months. Additionally, elevated temperatures increase evaporation rates, further exacerbating water loss from the lake and its watershed.
In contrast, scenarios featuring strong greenhouse gas emissions reductions show a markedly different trajectory. With aggressive mitigation measures, water levels in Gatún Lake could remain relatively stable, mirroring historical patterns observed over the past century. This divergence underscores the crucial role of global climate policy in preserving the operational viability of the canal, emphasizing that mitigation investments may prevent a cascade of water shortages with severe socio-economic impacts.
Currently, the Panama Canal sits at a pivotal crossroads. Without urgent emissions reductions, the canal authorities will likely face ongoing operational difficulties resulting from sustained drought conditions. In response, strategic efforts are underway to improve water use efficiency during lock operations, including technological and procedural optimizations aimed at economizing every drop of freshwater used. Moreover, plans are advancing to develop new reservoir facilities, intended to augment water storage capacity and build resilience against prolonged dry periods.
Looking toward the future, Muñoz aims to expand his research framework to include a more nuanced array of operational scenarios and policy-driven adaptations. This includes integrating complex operational decision-making processes into hydrological projections, as well as refining climate model inputs to reduce uncertainties specific to Panama’s regional climate dynamics. A key component of this ongoing work involves collaboration with Panamanian authorities and scientists to align scientific understanding with pragmatic canal management and adaptation strategies.
Significantly, this research highlights the interconnectedness of global climate actions and critical infrastructure resilience. The Panama Canal not only supports economic activity across multiple continents but also underlines the broader vulnerability of water-dependent systems in a warming world. By linking climate projections to tangible operational impacts, the study provides a valuable precedent for assessing future risks in other regions facing similar hydrological stress under climate change.
This study represents a clarion call for global climate mitigation and local adaptation efforts alike. The prospect of recurrent droughts turning historic low water levels into an operational norm threatens to transform the Panama Canal’s historically reliable utility. Given the canal’s crucial role in international maritime trade, the urgency to address greenhouse gas emissions and develop innovative water management strategies is more pressing than ever.
As the world watches, the unfolding challenges at the Panama Canal offer a stark illustration of climate change’s tangible and immediate consequences on key infrastructure. The decisions made today by global leaders, scientists, and local authorities will determine whether future generations can continue to rely on this engineering marvel as a seamless conduit between oceans or must grapple with an increasingly unpredictable and constrained water supply.
Ultimately, the study underscores a broader insight: sustainable management of natural resources and infrastructure resilience in a changing climate demand both robust scientific inquiry and collaborative governance. With ongoing research and proactive policy, there remains hope to secure the Panama Canal’s future amidst the accelerating impacts of global warming.
Subject of Research: Computational simulation/modeling of hydrological and climate variability impacting the Panama Canal system.
Article Title: Drying of the Panama Canal in a Warming Climate
News Publication Date: September 17, 2025
Web References:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL117038
References:
Muñoz, S. E., Lawrence, L., Wang, S. (2025). Drying of the Panama Canal in a Warming Climate. Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1029/2025GL117038
Keywords: Panama Canal, climate change, drought, water scarcity, greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological modeling, Gatún Lake, evaporation, precipitation, maritime trade, infrastructure resilience, climate mitigation
