More Childcare Slots in Italian Municipalities Linked to More Births, Study Finds

An expansion of formal childcare for children under three in Italy is associated with a measurable increase in the number of births at the municipal level, according to a brief report published in the European Journal of Population. The study, led by Viviana Celli and colleagues, used municipal data and a counterfactual framework to examine how variations in the provision of Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) services relate to births across Italy.

The analysis found that an increase in the availability of ECEC services had a positive and statistically significant effect on the number of births in municipalities. However, the researchers report that these significant effects appeared only under two conditions. First, the increase in the coverage rate had to be sufficiently large rather than the result of very gradual incremental growth. Second, a minimum initial level of ECEC coverage of at least ten percent had to already be present in the municipality.

At the same time, the study found no evidence of a saturation effect when coverage increased from an already relatively high starting level. In other words, municipalities that expanded provision from a high base did not show the positive relationship disappearing. The authors interpret the findings as consistent with the idea that insufficient availability of formal childcare represents one of the barriers preventing couples from realizing their reproductive plans.

The researchers also frame the results as a cautionary tale about what can be expected from investments in ECEC provision in countries with very low fertility rates. Mainly due to what they describe as the fertility trap, policy interventions that expand ECEC slow the decline in births but do not manage to fully offset it, according to the study’s abstract. The work is published as an open access brief report, released on 9 September 2026, with the article shared early to provide faster access to peer-reviewed, accepted research.

Subject of Research: The effect of early childhood education and care provision on municipal-level birth trends in Italy

Article Title: Formal Childcare Provision and Birth Trends: Evidence from Italy

Article References: Celli, V., Milan, G., Pavolini, E., Scherer, S., Bracaglia, P., Crialesi, R., De Salvo, P., & Qualiano, V. (2026). Formal Childcare Provision and Birth Trends: Evidence from Italy. European Journal of Population. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-026-09785-7

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s10680-026-09785-7

Keywords: Italy, childcare, ECEC, fertility, births, municipal data, population, early childhood education and care, fertility trap, European Journal of Population, Formal, Provision